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After a sharp drop in daily COVID-19 cases in New York City, daily infections now remain stubbornly high at 3,700.
The stagnation coincides with the arrival of a tempting suspect at the scene: a variant known as B1526 that first appeared in Upper Manhattan in November.
According to the most recent data, as of February 23, the variant accounted for about 34% of New York state coronavirus samples tested to see if they contain any of the different variants spreading to the United States. United, according to epidemi.info.
That’s a five-fold increase from the previous week, when only six percent of New York samples submitted to the national GISAID database were positive for B1256 mutations.
But this dramatic increase is not the complete story. The United States is also finally stepping up this type of test – which requires scientists to sequence the entire genome of a virus sample – which increases the likelihood that they will find the variant.
Virologists caution against these assumptions, especially when the New York variant is so new and still being researched.
But the NYC variant contains mutations seen in others that are more apt to infect people, and its increasing prevalence could threaten to push up COVID-19 cases in New York City as previous declines stagnate.
The “ New York ” variant, B1526, was detected in 34% of samples from the state that were tested for mutations, a five-fold increase from the previous week, when it was detected in only 6% ^ of New York samples.
New COVID-19 cases remain stubbornly high in New York City, where the 7-day moving average of cases is 3,700
It also comes amid administrative chaos in New York City.
In addition to facing allegations of sexual misconduct, Governor Andrew Cuomo is also under investigation for hiding data on the true burden of COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes.
And getting a clear picture of how the pandemic is unfolding in New York has become increasingly difficult in the months since Cuomo briefly became a bastion of transparency thanks to his daily COVID briefings.
Today, the New York State Department of Health reports that there were 7,593 new positive tests on Wednesday.
The state recorded 4,025 cases in New York City that day.
New York City stopped reporting daily cases on its health department website, but Mayor Bill de Blasio tweeted that the city saw 3,270 new cases of COVID-19 yesterday.
Meanwhile, data from Johns Hopkins University yesterday showed 6,564 new cases in New York state.
So it’s unclear exactly how many new cases of the coronavirus there were in the city or state yesterday, but regardless of the data used, the decline in cases has stabilized.
The New York variant was first detected in the Washington Heights neighborhood of Upper Manhattan in mid-November.
It is believed to have had a chance to develop in a person who had advanced AIDS.
Scientists have warned that there are two main opportunities for the virus to take on significant mutations that lead to new strains: high rates of infections and infections in immunocompromised patients, where the virus can persist longer, ” learn ” the human immune system and develop. mutations that help it survive blunt attacks from our body.
The prevalence of the variant has also increased in the United States as a whole, accounting for more than 30% of the samples tested. But Outbreak.info notes that there have been fewer samples submitted recently, which may skew the prevalence of the variant.
The variant was identified just as New York City entered its second wave of COVID-19 infections, which also coincides with the holiday season, making the variant unlikely to be responsible for this spike in cases.
But now that B1526 cases are doubling roughly every month, according to data from epidemine.info, this could be contributing to New York’s stable and high rate of overall cases.
Stalled declines in cases are seen across the country. Experts believe this is due to several causes: the presence of more transmissible and infectious variants, like the British form B117, “ pandemic fatigue ” in Americans who are tired of wearing masks and staying in touch. house, and restrictions relaxed in many states.
The B117 variant is certainly the most common mutant in the United States (apart from the wild type).
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has confirmed at least 2,500 cases of B117 in 46 states and predicted in January that the variant would become dominant during that March.
CDC Director Dr Rochelle Walensky issued a stern warning about the spread of variants: “ Please hear me clearly: at this level of cases with variants spreading, we are completely losing ground. won that we won, ” she said on a Monday. White House press briefing.
At least one case of the New York variant has each been identified in Sint Maarten, Japan, Singapore, Croatia, Ireland and the United Kingdom, in addition to the 1,113 found in the United States, according to Outbreak.info
The variant has been detected in 22 states, including Texas, MIssissippi, New Mexico, Wyoming, New Jersey, and Michigan.
“These variations pose a very real threat to our people and our progress. Now is not the time to relax critical safeguards that we know could stop the spread of COVID-19 in our communities, not when we are so close. ”
Variants from South Africa and Brazil are now also found in the United States. There are at least 65 cases of B1351 variant from South Africa and 10 cases of P1 variant from Brazil in America.
Could local variants therefore constitute a threat to progress in the states where they have appeared?
Dr Anthony Fauci is certainly considering this possibility.
He warned the New York variant was “ now gaining ” ground and said the Biden administration was “ taking it very seriously, ” during Wednesday’s press briefing.
There is no solid evidence yet that the variant is more heritable or fatal.
But its mutations suggest that the B1526 variant is better able to infect human cells.
It has mutations at the E484K and S477N locations along its genome.
Laboratory tests and observations of variants with these mutations suggest that they make the virus harder for antibodies to detect and make it more efficient at infecting human cells.
Between the “California” and “New York” variants, the New York one is “more interesting” to Scripps Research University immunologist Dr. Kristian Andersen, he said in a Twitter thread.
Like the South African and Brazilian variants, the New York variant seems to “ escape some ab [antibody] immunity, in a part of the country where immunity is high, ” wrote Dr Andersen, referring to the fact that a high proportion of New Yorkers have already had COVID-19, since the Big Apple became the epicenter of the pandemic last spring.
It’s still too early to say if the variant is what is supporting the number of cases in New York City, but Dr Anderson wrote that it certainly warrants an investigation.
And with the now-reported variant identified in 22 states, the answer to that question could have national implications.
But it’s critical to note that while all of scientists’ biggest concerns about the New York variant hold true, it still hasn’t been proven to be more transmissible – meaning masks and social distancing will always work – that doesn’t seem to do people. any sicker, or more likely to die, and are unlikely to escape the immunity and antibodies induced by the vaccine altogether.
In short: the variant is worth watching and worrying about, but don’t panic.
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