Is the Tesla Model Y its last vaporizer?

[ad_1]

<div _ngcontent-c14 = "" innerhtml = "

Tesla announced the Y model on Thursday night and investors are clearly not impressed since stocks closed over $ 14 or 5% to $ 275 Friday. Shares are now down more than $ 44 or 14% since Elon Musk announced the $ 35,000 model 3 version and that the company would close almost all of its stores (it has now half overthrown). The stock has held a mini-rally over the last six trading days, but has fallen back to its recent low, so it seems that the short-term move was a dead cat bounce.

Did Tesla announce his latest "vaporware"?

Over the decades, technology companies have announced new products or features that would be available in the future. Sometimes they are called "vaporware" because they are not fully trained with the dates of first shipment months, sometimes even years to come. This can be part of Tesla's overall grand strategy or another Hail Mary movement.

One of the reasons to declare new or upgraded offers is to give customers a roadmap and insurance for the purchase of current solutions, but also to get them to not buy a competing product and wait for what is presented on a PowerPoint slide or on a stage. While I expect the Y model to be manufactured and in volume, presenting it now is one way to create uncertainty for consumers about buying a competitor's vehicle.

As Alan Ohnsman of Forbes wrote, the Y will represent several competitive vehicles in 2020 and the federal tax credit for Tesla will be exhausted. Buyers of other electric cars will be able to take advantage of the $ 7,500 tax credit, putting additional pressure on Tesla.

Second-generation Tesla Semi and Roadster ads are similar in that they were unveiled on November 16, 2017. Production is scheduled for 2020, at least two years before anyone can buy the truck or car. By announcing several years in advance, the company is able to acquire hundreds of millions of dollars in deposits and obtain loans representing virtually zero percent.

It was interesting to note in the 36-minute video the announcement of the Model Y that Musk failed to get the car out before the 29th minute. And only spent 4 minutes talking about it.

Craig Irwin, of Roth Capital Partners, also speculates that the timing of this announcement will help distract from the disappointing demand of Model 3. Many reports have pointed to weak US demand for not only the 3 but also the S and the X because of the halving of the federal tax refund to $ 3,750. By generating additional buzz and deposits for the balance sheet, it can be helpful to overcome what could be a bad earnings announcement (actually a loss) in about six weeks.

When will the volume production of the Y model start to increase?

As seems to be the norm with Tesla, do not be surprised if volume production does not arrive before 2021 . Although 75% of the Y nomenclature is common to the 3, when you go to the Tesla website, there seems to be a warning at the bottom of the order page that "Production should start in end of next year ". unlike the slide presented at last night's announcement and that says fall 2020. Technically, falling does not end until December 20, 2020but I suspect most people think that fall is October and no later than November.

Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi wrote: "Last night's unveiling essentially reaffirmed Tesla's target:" volume "production by the end of 2020. This schedule looks similar to the initial schedule of the Model 3 ramp, which ultimately been delayed from 9 to 12 months. That said, the Y model could benefit from a softer ramp thanks to its shared platform. "

Spring 2021 begins March 20 and ends June 21. I think the Standard should be delivered later in this period. That would put the $ 39,000 setup in at least two years and perhaps further, as Sacconaghi observes.

Could cannibalize the demand of model 3

Tesla has historically advertised vehicles a few years before their availability. While it had not previously cannibalized sales as it did not sell current models at about the same price, the Y model could create a lull between previous Model 3 adapters and Tesla fan demand. and the Y model goes into full production in 2021.

Adam Jonas, of Morgan Stanley, thinks that the Y is likely to hurt Model 3, because it occupies a third row of seats. Note that in the announcement video, 6 people came out of the Y when he came on the scene, but it appeared that two of the passengers were quite short. I expect the last line to be quite narrow for a large part of the adult population.

">

Tesla announced the Y model on Thursday night and investors are clearly not impressed since stocks closed over $ 14 or 5% to $ 275 Friday. Shares are now down more than 44 or 14% since Elon Musk announced the Model 3 version of $ 35,000 and that the company would close almost all of its stores (which it has already reversed in half ). The title has run a mini-rally over the last six trading days, but has dropped to its lowest recent level. It therefore seems that the short-term rise was a dead bounce.

Did Tesla announce his latest "vaporware"?

Over the decades, technology companies have announced new products or features that would be available in the future. Sometimes they are called "vaporware" because they are not fully trained with the dates of first shipment months, sometimes even years to come. This can be part of Tesla's overall strategy or another Hail Mary move.

One of the reasons to declare new or upgraded offers is to give customers a roadmap and insurance for the purchase of current solutions, but also to get them to not buy a competing product and wait for what is presented on a PowerPoint slide or on a stage. While I expect the Y model to be manufactured and in volume, presenting it now is one way to create uncertainty for consumers about buying a competitor's vehicle.

As Forbes wrote Alan Ohnsman, the Y will represent several competitive vehicles in 2020 and the federal tax credit for Tesla will be exhausted. Buyers of other electric cars will be able to take advantage of the $ 7,500 tax credit, putting additional pressure on Tesla.

Second-generation Tesla Semi and Roadster ads are similar in that they were unveiled on November 16, 2017. Production is scheduled for 2020, at least two years before anyone can buy the truck or car. By announcing several years in advance, the company is able to acquire hundreds of millions of dollars in deposits and obtain loans representing virtually zero percent.

It was interesting to note in the 36-minute video of the Model Y announcement that Musk failed to get the car out before the 29th minute. And only spent 4 minutes talking about it.

Craig Irwin, of Roth Capital Partners, also speculates that the timing of this announcement will help distract attention from the disappointing demand of Model 3. Many reports have pointed to the weakness of US demand for not only the 3 but also S and X because of the halving of the federal tax refund to $ 3,750. By generating additional buzz and deposits for the balance sheet, it can be helpful to overcome what could be a bad earnings announcement (actually a loss) in about six weeks.

When will the volume production of the Y model start to increase?

As seems to be the norm with Tesla, do not be surprised if volume production does not arrive before 2021 . Although 75% of the Y nomenclature is common to the 3, when you go to the Tesla website, there seems to be a warning at the bottom of the order page that "Production should start in end of next year ". unlike the slide presented at the announcement last night that announced the fall of 2020. Technically, the fall does not finish until December 20, 2020, but I guess most people think that the # Autumn is October and not later than November.

Toni Sacconaghi, of Bernstein, wrote: "Last night 's unveiling essentially reaffirmed Tesla' s" volume "goal, namely volume production by the end of 2020. similar to the initial schedule of the Model 3 ramp, which was finally delayed from 9 to 12 months. That said, the Y model could benefit from a softer ramp thanks to its shared platform. "

Spring 2021 begins March 20 and ends June 21. I think the Standard should be delivered later in this period. That would put the $ 39,000 setup in at least two years and perhaps further, as Sacconaghi observes.

Could cannibalize the demand of model 3

Tesla has historically advertised vehicles a few years before their availability. While it had not previously cannibalized sales as it did not sell current models at about the same price, the Y model could create a lull between previous Model 3 adapters and Tesla fan demand. and the Y model goes into full production in 2021.

Adam Jonas, of Morgan Stanley, thinks that the Y is likely to hurt Model 3, because it occupies a third row of seats. Note that in the announcement video, 6 people came out of the Y when he came on the scene, but it appeared that two of the passengers were quite short. I expect the last line to be quite narrow for a large part of the adult population.