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Late spring and early summer were not favorable for EUR / USD bulls. Prices have steadily declined in a tightening cycle of the US Federal Reserve (EDF) and dovish accents from the European Central Bank (ECB). The result was prolonged pain for the long, with values falling from 1.2500 to 1.1500. Can anything change the downtrend for the rest of the year 2018?
Key Events
Market fundamentals are the only thing that can change the dominant negative sentiment of . As always, a quick look at the economic calendar is a good starting point to try to find the turning point of a market. Here are the main events that the EUR / USD will be facing for the coming week:
Country Event Day
GDP of Chinese GDP
U.S./Russia Trump / Putin Meeting Monday
U.S. Retail sales Monday
U.S. EDP Powell Speech Tuesday
E.U. IPC Wednesday
This week is a big one on the geopolitical front. The Trump / Putin meeting will hit the headlines, with the WTI crude price on the front page. Few things are expected from the conference, but anything can happen and volatility is likely for Monday's session
China's GDP is a key number that investors will watch closely. Although it is too early to see the impact of US tariffs in the Chinese manufacturing sector, traders are certainly curious about China's economic health.
The CPI of the euro zone is a big problem for the EUR / USD. remains unchanged at 1%. As always, traders are watching closely for signs that the ECB may take a more hawkish stance in the coming months.
EUR / USD Weekly Chart
The downtrend of the EUR / USD becomes evident at a glance at the weekly chart. Prices have fallen dramatically since April, with 1,1500 being the end of June
Convergent indicators are a good thing and we have two key technical levels near the 1.1900 handle. Here they are:
- Resistance (1): MP Bollinger, 1.1894
- Resistance (2): 38% Retracement, 1.1908
Abstract: The EUR / USD has installed the last week just under the handle 1.1700. The bearish bias is confirmed because the price did not violate the 38% retracement of the 2018 sale. From now on, the downtrend remains valid.
The 1.1900 handle will gain momentum in the coming weeks. At one point, this market will come together and test 1,1900, probably by the fall. When that's the case, we'll be ready to make a profit and remove some green pips from this market!
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