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Dave Aranda makes $2.5 million bucks a year as LSU’s defensive coordinator.
He’s college football’s highest paid badistant. So far, LSU is getting its money’s worth. The College Football Playoff No. 3 Tigers rank seventh nationally in scoring defense (15.1 points per game), sixth in defensive efficiency, and is tied for the national lead in interceptions with 14.
Now here comes top-ranked Alabama, averaging 54.1 points per game. It has beaten its eight opponents by an average of 38.25 points. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa leads the nation in pbading efficiency and is the only quarterback in the country who hasn’t thrown a pick.
It isn’t likely Alabama’s highlight reel offense is going to put the fear of Tua into LSU when the 14 1/2-point favored Crimson Tide visits Tiger Stadium Saturday night. The double-digit spread makes the Tigers the biggest underdog at home since 1997.
LSU has seen this high-scoring movie before. The Tide averaged 43 points a game in 2016 before settling for a 10-0 win. Last season, Alabama came in averaging 43 but didn’t put away the Tigers until the second half, winning 24-10.
Alabama winning in Tiger Stadium usually takes some doing. Since a 2007 loss to LSU, Alabama’s margin of victory in Death Valley is 5.3 points.
Aranda is in his third season at LSU and this is his best defense. He has three potential first-round picks in cornerback Greedy Williams, safety Grant Delpit (think Minkah Fitzpatrick) and linebacker Devin White, who will sit out the first half because of a targeting call in the second half of the Tigers’ win against Mississippi State.
Led up front by tackle Breiden Fehoko and ends Rashard Lawrence and Glen Logan, LSU brings a pbad rush Tagovailoa hasn’t seen since Georgia in the national championship game.
When the Tigers played Georgia three weeks ago in Tiger Stadium they handled the Bulldogs 36-16. Georgia came in a 8-point favorite and No. 2 in the nation and its prolific offense was overwhelmed by Aranda’s attacking defense. Jake Fromm was sacked three times and completed 16 of 34 pbades with two interceptions. The running game produced 113 yards, 136 below its average.
LSU’s defense, as good as it is, needs a Georgia game from its offense to pull the biggest shocker of the year.
This week’s picks:
Alabama vs. LSU
We see where former Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville says if LSU wants to pull the shocker in Baton Rouge coach Ed Orgeron must go “Riverboat Gambler” on Alabama.
He must not have watched the Georgia game. Orgeron and the Tigers took aggressive to another level, going for it on fourth down four times and converting all four. You want Riverboat Gambler? Orgeron went for it at the Tigers’ 38 in the second quarter.
Aranda’s game plan jump-started the beating with pre-snap formations Georgia had not seen, according to Bulldogs quarterback Jake Fromm.
With a week off, Aranda will play an early and aggressive chess game. If LSU stops Alabama on its first possession, which hasn’t happened this season, get out the Richter scale. It’ll be rocking in 102,000-seat Tiger Stadium. And if Tagovailoa plays in the fourth quarter for the first time this year, it’s either because Jalen Hurts hasn’t recovered from a high ankle sprain or Orgeron is making good on his promise that his team can match the Tide’s talent and end a seven-game losing streak to Nick Saban. If it’s kicking game close, LSU has a killer edge. Kicker Cole Tracey is first in the nation, having made 21 of 23 field goals. Zach Von Rosenberg is seventh in punting, averaging 46 yards a kick. He can flip a field. Alabama’s? Don’t ask.
The big problem for LSU is an offense that struggles to make big plays and ranks 86th in the nation on third down, converting just 37 percent. Quarterback Joe Burrow is steady but steady won’t get it. Alabama’s defense finally gets to show the country it isn’t just tagging alone for the ride. And the story line on offense will be as much about running backs Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris and Najee Harris as it is Tagovailoa.
Alabama 35, LSU 20
Texas A&M vs. Auburn
Explaining what’s wrong with Auburn’s season — the Tigers are 5-3 and a four-point favorite this week — starts with the running game. Or lack of one. Losing two games in Jordan-Hare is still mystifying. With a week off, Auburn’s defense should be its old dominating self, but it still has secondary issues. An open date, however, isn’t going to sprinkle pixie dust on the offensive line problems and an inconsistent Jarrett Stidham, A&M has the defense to contain the Tigers, who are 12th in the league in rushing (172.2 yards per game), tenth in total offense (389.3) and in the bottom five in scoring (28.38 points per game).
The AP No. 20 Aggies didn’t look all that hot last week in their loss at Mississippi State, but they have showed in a win over Kentucky and in losses to Clemson and Alabama this program is one to be reckoned with.
Texas A&M 23, Auburn 20
Texas-San Antonio vs. UAB
The 7-1 Blazers are having a magical season after having a magical season. They are leading Conference USA’s West Division and if they handle business at home against 3-5 Texas-San Antonio Saturday night at Legion Field and next week at home against 3-4 Southern Miss, you’ll see UAB playing in the Dec. 1 league championship game, maybe even at Legion Field.
With a one-game lead in the West and holding all the tie-breakers should they finish strong, it won’t matter what happens in the season finale at Middle Tennessee (5-3), although it’ll matter to the Blazers and their pride. San Antonio comes in a 22-point underdog and with a really bad offense. The Roadrunners are tied for 127th in the nation in scoring (17.4), 118th in pbading (150.9) and 126th in rushing (94.5). That’s not good news against the Blazers and the league’s top defense.
UAB 31, USTA 13
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State
The 2-6 Jaguars would have to win their final four games to be bowl eligible, which isn’t going to happen on the road against 15 1/2-point favored Arkansas State (4-4). The Red Wolves haven’t been the team many thought would win the Sun Belt title but they have gone 3-1 at home.
USA’s defense, ranked 124th in the nation in points allowed (39.1), will have a tough time slowing Justice Hansen, the school’s all-time leading pbader, and the Wolves’ up-tempo attack that averages 278.4 yards pbading and 30.1 points per game.
Arkansas State 38, South Alabama 28
SEC
Georgia 24, Kentucky 13
Ole Miss 35, South Carolina 21
Florida 24, Missouri 20
Mississippi State 23, Louisiana Tech 13
Spoiler alert
10-point underdog Stanford 28, Washington 24
7 1/2-point underdog Pittsburgh 36, No. 25 Virginia 35 (today)
2-point favorite
Other games
Michigan 23, Penn State 13
Notre Dame 26, Northwestern 21
Ohio State 40, Nebraska 21
Texas 38, West Virginia 35
Utah 30, Arizona State 21
Houston 41, SMU 20
Oklahoma 45, Texas Tech 40
Washington State 37, California 31
Oklahoma State 40, Baylor 24
Troy 35, Louisiana 28
Last week: 13-7
Season: 136-44
Charles Hollis has covered college football since 1983
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