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Thursday night’s NFL matchup (8:20, Fox,) featuring the Packers (4-4-1) and Seahawks (4-5) is already a virtual playoff game in the crowded NFC field.
Heading into the new week, 11 of 15 conference teams have records of 4-5 or better. If you badume the current top two seeds, the Saints and Rams, are shoe-ins, that leaves four spots for the other nine contenders. Neither the Packers nor Seahawks can afford a loss.
Here’s a quick look at odds for those 11 contenders to win the NFC, according to William Hill: Rams +130, Saints 7/5, Vikings 8/1, Bears 15/1, Packers 17/1, Panthers 17/1, Redskins 25/1, Eagles 25/1, Cowboys 35/1, Falcons 35/1, Seahawks 150/1.
Seattle sure sticks out like a sore thumb on that list. The Seahawks are basically in the “no chance” category rather than being thought of as a threat. Is that fair? Consider Seattle:
- Has played the fewest home games of any NFC team (3).
- Has played the most road games of any NFC team (6).
- Ranks No. 4 in NFC point differential.
- Already has played both games versus the Rams.
Seattle’s perception as an also-ran may be more due to early scheduling quirks than anything else. Flip a road game for a home game, maybe the record is 5-4 instead of 4-5. That would probably equate to a futures price near the 35/1 marks we see for the Cowboys and Falcons. The schedule will flip because everyone ultimately plays eight home games and eight road games.
Based on early betting, “the market” sees Green Bay as slightly superior to Seattle. An opening line of Seahawks -2¹/₂ has stood pat, even though home-field advantage is generally worth three points in the NFL (and more in Seattle). Clearly oddsmakers and sharps agree the Packers would be slight favorites in a neutral-field meeting.
Can Seattle rate as “slightly worse than Green Bay” and still be good enough to reach the playoffs? It’s a tough needle to thread. Unless, Seattle proves Thursday it’s not slightly worse than Green Bay! If you believe Seattle is a value bet at -2¹/₂ Thursday, you should probably consider taking flyers at those huge futures prices. Seattle at 5-5 with extra home games ahead would no longer be 150/1 to win the NFC, even if it would remain a long shot.
If you’re wondering about the Giants, William Hill has them at 1,000/1 to win the NFC. Though that sounds like a big payoff, it’s actually way below true odds. The G-Men have to win every remaining regular-season game to finish 9-7. That might not be enough to make the playoffs anyway. Should they reach January, they’d have to sweep three playoff games as underdogs, likely including two as big underdogs to the Rams and Saints. True odds from where things stand currently are several thousand to one.
We’ll talk more about the Giants on Sunday to get you ready for their home game versus Tampa Bay.
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