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I do not put a ton of stock in the golf forecast, and you should not either. It's a sport where the "best" player wins significantly less than 25% of the time, as long as the best player is not Tiger Woods in the 2000s. This level of parity means that most items trying to sell you on the winner of a major tournament are more or less useless even if they are often fun.
But all this is changing today. I do not expect you to believe what comes next, and if I were you, I would not believe it either. I only expect that, when I was right on Sunday, you formed an orderly line to excuse me for always doubting. Because here's the truth: I know that Jon Rahm will win the 2018 Open Championship at Carnoustie.
Is this part of the intuition? Yes. Yes, that's it. I admit it willingly. But I would also say that it is rational and even probable. The following is a list that proves, without a shadow of a doubt, that Rahm will be hoisting the Claret jug on Sunday.
Related: An Alternative View – Why Justin Rose Will Win the Open
1. We are in the year of the young conqueror without mercy. Patrick Reed won the Masters. Brooks Koepka won the US Open, again. These two are birds of a feather-men in their twenties who are afraid of nothing. Where the generation above them has faded and waded under the harsh light of Tiger's greatness, they – along with Spieth and Rory and Justin Thomas – have shown none of this even hesitation or fear. They are born drummers of the world, and they are not the kind of people to wait for permission to win the biggest prizes of the game.
Jon Rahm is of their ilk. At 23, his resume is already impressive. He won 11 times at the Arizona State and became the first player to win two consecutive Ben Hogan Awards as the country's best college player. This success has been translated into the professional scene almost immediately. He has already won five times on two tours, including the World Tour Championship in Dubai. He finished fourth at the Masters. It is ranked fifth in the world. Despite his young age, he already felt like he was on the brink of a major breakthrough for years. His hour came
2. Rahm's anger, which has earned his fair share of criticism in the world of golf, is actually a good thing. It can be difficult for people to accept when someone like Rahm offers the explanation that his little explosions help him on the course, and it would be even harder for many to accept the idea that anger can be a sign of the inner desire that every champion needs. We usually think of anger as a negative emotion, and of course we have seen a lot of athletes get carried away and get embarrbaded with demonstrations of rage. But Rahm's anger reads differently – he reads as the outward sign that he really cares, and that he's never going to settle for anything less than playing like one of the best golfers in the world. This quest for perfection can hurt, and he will surely have to find a balance, but his victory story proves that far from being debilitating, Rahm's fury has already propelled him to the higher echelons.
3. He has been in very good shape lately. In the last two months, it has ranked fifth in Fort Worth, fifth in France and fourth in Ireland. He also bombed Shinnebad, but I think it's safe to ignore this anomaly – the course was a monster, and a bit of bad luck at a place like that goes a long way.
4. He drove the ball 418 yards to Mexico. He will drive the ball 500 meters over a cooked Carnoustie. The course was quite difficult in opening, but with the amount of throw available to players this weekend, he is preparing for historically low scores. Rahm, the kind of bomber that will not be submerged by fast greens, is perfectly suited to take advantage of conditions, especially if the forecasts are true and the rain and wind are far away.
5. Let's put on our aluminum caps. See if you detect a pattern here:
2013 Champion: Phil Mickelson
2014 Champion: Rory McIlroy
2015 Champion: Zach Johnson
Champion 2016: Henrik Stenson
Champion of 2017: Jordan Spieth
American. European. American. European. American
What now? European
Jon Rahm is Spanish. Spain is in Europe. Eureka!
The proof is crystal clear: Rahm is the man of the hour. Two of my biggest regrets after writing a book about young PGA Tour players in 2014, is that I did not have the opportunity to paint a portrait Brooks Koepka or Jon Rahm. Rahm was still a few years old and Koepka would not win his first major professional tournament before this year's Ryder Cup. Neither of them has finished in the book, but both are now major champions. And in some ways, they are like mirror images of each other.
In short, I will not miss the boat twice on Rahm. While most golf predictions are unusable and wacky, this one is good as gold: Jon Rahm will win the Open Championship.
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