Change of regime or a summit with Rouhani negotiated by Putin.

Who knows what was going on in President Trump's head when he tweeted a threat of all capitalisations to Iranian President Hbadan Rouhani earlier this week. Perhaps even the president himself does not know. It is possible that Trump has visions of regime change in his mind. Or perhaps he is trying to repeat his gambit in North Korea: a self-inflicted crisis followed by a theatrical summit that allows him to badume the role of man. State. Either one or the other of these scenarios could come true. The two would leave the United States in a worse situation than if Trump had remained in the Iranian nuclear deal.

The path that Trump will follow most is confrontation. Iranian politics may simply not allow rapprochement with Trump even if it is something he wants. President Rouhani made this agreement, known as the Common Global Action Plan, the centerpiece of his presidency, and since the US withdrawal, he has been attacked by radical opponents in Iran. If he now had to meet the man who was moving away from the case and imposed new sanctions, he would be pilloried. Iran is certainly not a democracy, but faction politics is leaving and imposing limits on its politicians.

As for Trump 's administration, she might also be less motivated to pursue a much – publicized summit with Iran than she was with North Korea because she was not the best. she sees a more attractive alternative. National Security Advisor John Bolton, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Vice President Mike Pence all seem to be convinced that the Islamic Republic is on the brink of internal collapse and that a pressure Growing economic and the pursuit of a peaceful regime change are viable option. It's certainly better than going to war, which remains a deeply unpopular choice among the American public.

America's regional partners constitute a third factor that goes against the breakthrough of the United States and Iran. In the case of North Korea, South Korea was invested to defuse the situation and find a diplomatic solution. He played a vital role in directly bringing an offer to a summit in Trump. Israel and Saudi Arabia will not play such a role. They are deeply invested in a confrontational approach to Iran that would weaken the regime or, better yet, weaken it completely. Bibi Netanyahu and Mohammed Bin Salman will do everything they can to discourage a show like the one we saw in Singapore last month.

The lack of international unity to put pressure on Iran will also make this situation difficult. Any consensus to isolate Iran has collapsed, while our European partners, Russia and China have opposed the US decision to abandon the JCPOA and are now pursuing negotiated alternatives with the US. Iran to maintain the JCPOA alive and limit the impact of the US reimposition. punishments. As long as this remains the case, Iran will probably prefer to engage with other P5 + 1 members and exacerbate a divide between the United States and its partners.

The lack of international unity to put pressure on Iran will also make this situation difficult .

Given these limitations, the most likely scenario is that the Iranian situation will continue to be felt. The Trump administration will try to induce regime change through sanctions, a strategy that is unlikely to succeed. And even if that is the case, it could bring unpredictable and not necessarily positive results. As we saw during the Arab Spring, regime change could lead to significant instability or even civil war. In the case of Iran, the most likely scenario would probably be the replacement of a clerical regime by a regime led by the powerful Guards Corps of the Islamic Revolution with little change in foreign or domestic policy from Iran. The Iranians will negotiate with other P5 + 1 members, but as the impact of US sanctions worsens, they will also retaliate against US JCPOA violations by re-launching elements of their nuclear program. violation of the agreement. All parties will continue to try to avoid a major war. And the president will continue with angry tweets that will have little effect.

There is another reality in which President Trump dreams of a summit with President Rouhani, or even better with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This would play Trump's instinct as a showman and perhaps more plausible than people believe.

The path to such a spectacle probably pbades by the favorite foreign leader of Trump: Vladimir Putin. One of Putin's strongest motivations is to present Russia as an indispensable player on the world stage, a superpower with parity with the United States. The convening of a historic summit including the Iranian and US Presidents would be a major coup for Putin that would reinforce this perception.

Russia also has an interest in preventing a confrontation between the United States and Iran or an Iran endowed with nuclear weapons. This is why, in the negotiations over the Iranian nuclear power of 2013-2015, Russia and the United States found a common ground on Iran even as the relationship between the United States and United and Russia has seriously deteriorated in other areas. The Russians were a critical player. They often took the Iranian side and made things harder for the United States, but there were moments in the negotiations where they also put the screws on the Iranians and managed to make concessions that no other players could do.

The Russians are also deeply invested in the success of their military intervention in Syria. The consolidation of their military victory requires a political agreement among key players, including the United States and Iran. Despite years of meetings and processes in places such as Geneva and Astana, Kazakhstan, all the negotiating efforts have so far failed. Therefore, a summit that gives progress on this front should be attractive to Putin.

Putin can also circumvent all the objections of Trump's advisers, as well as those of our Israeli and Saudi partners, by addressing the president directly. Just look at the president's performance at the Helsinki summit to have proof that Putin can make Trump accept things that all his advisers oppose. And Trump's persistent abuse of European and Asian allies should make our Israeli and Saudi friends reflect. Would not he ever turn one day if Vladimir Putin offered him a far-reaching diplomatic show that would allow him to play the media on the world stage?

Perhaps the biggest question is whether Putin could sell that to the Iranian leadership. He should argue that Trump, as he did in North Korea, will not be prepared and will make major concessions without getting anything substantial in return. If talks with other P5 + 1 members do not allow Iran to obtain significant relief from sanctions, this option could also be attractive. At a minimum, a Rouhani-Trump summit would further weaken international respect and the implementation of US sanctions as the world sees Iran and the United States re-engaging. And in the ideal world, Putin could even convince Trump to resume the implementation of the nuclear deal while declaring that he has ripped off additional concessions to Iran.

In this less likely scenario, the big winner would be Russia. Putin would come out with a major international victory boosting Russia's reputation. Trump would get his big photo-op. Iran and the United States would return to where they were before the president unnecessarily removed the JCPOA.

And finally, it is here that we stand two months after the president madly threw relations with Iran into chaos. The most likely scenario is that the United States pursues a strategy of sterile regime change and become increasingly isolated internationally as Iran gradually revives its nuclear program. The scenario may be a little better is that by giving Vladimir Putin a huge victory, we restore the cold but functional peace with Iran that President Obama achieved in 2015. None of these opportunities are n & # 39; 39 is attractive, and both are the result of a more invested president. in his public image only in the national security of America.