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The first College Football Playoff rankings are almost here. With less than a week until the first top 25 reveal, we have predictions for how the rankings will look.
This story will be continuously updated during the season after games. The selection committee will announce the first top 25 at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Oct. 30, live on ESPN.
College Football Playoff rankings predictions
- Alabama
- Clemson
- LSU
- Notre Dame
- Michigan
- Texas
- Florida
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
- Kentucky
- Ohio State
- Washington State
- UCF
- Texas A&M
- West Virginia
- Washington
- Penn State
- Iowa
- Stanford
- Utah
- North Carolina State
- Oregon
- Wisconsin
- USC
- Texas Tech
College Football Playoff predictions: Semifinals
NOTE: This is how we think the semifinals would look right now. It is not a projection through the end of the season.
- No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
- No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 LSU
If you’re an undefeated Power 5 team (or Notre Dame), it’ll be almost impossible to be left out of the College Football Playoff — as long as there aren’t five total undefeated Power 5 teams.
But there are only three of those teams remaining going into Week 9: Alabama (SEC), Clemson (ACC), Notre Dame. As long as they stay undefeated, expect some combination of those three teams to be safely in the field.
That leaves one-loss LSU as the other pick — at least right now. Backed by impressive wins against current AP Top 25 teams Miami (33-17) and Georgia (36-16), the Tigers could even be ranked ahead of one of the undefeated teams.
When it comes to undefeated teams, the American Athletic Conference has two two: UCF and South Florida. The teams meet Friday, Nov. 23, but even if one of those teams are unbeaten going into that game, don’t expect either to make a serious push for the top 4. It would take weekly chaos for that to happen, with the top 10 full of at least two- and probably three-loss teams. UCF and South Florida are more likely to end up being the Group of Five representative in a New Year’s Six bowl than playing in the semifinals.
Also, the selection committee has yet to select a two-loss team to make the CFP semifinals. In the last two years, the committee made notable selections: One-loss Ohio State and one-loss Washington instead of two-loss Penn State in 2016 and one-loss Alabama instead of two-loss Ohio State a year ago. Those were memorable because 2016 Penn State and 2017 Ohio State won the Big Ten Championship but didn’t get in (Penn State beat Ohio State head-to-head, but was blown out by No. 6 Michigan; Ohio State lost by 31 to Iowa and SEC West runner-up Alabama went to the CFP instead). The big blowout margins of Penn State’s and Ohio State’s second losses played a major part.
So while there have been only four years of the CFP, until the committee actually does pick a two-loss team, it’s safe to be wary of the committee going that way if there are strong alternatives.
College Football Playoff rankings: New Year’s Six Games
NOTE: This is how we predict the games will look at the end of the season
- Peach Bowl: Georgia vs. Texas
- Fiesta Bowl: Florida vs. UCF
- Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Washington
- Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Oklahoma
- Cotton Bowl (Semifinal): Alabama vs. Michigan
- Orange Bowl (Semifinal): Clemson vs. Notre Dame
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