ECB is dropping rates in October – Live



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Katie Martin

Big shrug from the markets, leaving the focus to fall on Mr Draghi from 1330 London time.

Delphine Strauss

Are also expected to remain at their present levels "at least through the summer of 2019".

Delphine Strauss

As expected, the ECB has been kept unchanged and is now trading at $ 15 billion until the end of December 2018.

Katie Martin

The statement from the ECB is here. Emoticon

Katie Martin

Draghi could also face questions about a technical goal that could potentially arise because of the key issue, which could help determine how the ECB is investing in QE program.
Here's the rundown of Kate Allen and Claire Jones.
The key bit:

Frederik Ducrozet, a global strategist at Pictet Wealth Management, said that while the potential involved were "peanuts", there was a risk that it would be further anti-euro rhetoric from the Italian government, since Italy will be one of those countries penalized updated capital key ".

Katie Martin

We have a similar note, Daiwa says:

Inflation and survey indicators having started to surprise on the downside again … today's ECB policy announcements and press conferences are more likely than others Certainly, Draghi will need to acknowledge that the downside risks to the economic outlook have increased. Indeed, he might go so far as to state the risks to the outlook are skewed to the downside.

But Draghi certainly will not be more important than ECB's most recent economic forecasts, which we consider last month.

Delphine Strauss

There are also some big technical questions for the ECB to answer over the next few months. First: how it plans to reinvest the market of the bonds bought under QE as they mature. Second: it 's its update of the' key key '- used to calculate how much of each member states' bonds it buys – will penalize Italian debt.

Katie Martin

The eurozone economic performance, the PMIs, have shown what UBS describes as a "worrying loss of momentum".

UBS said:

We definitely expect [that] data to be a topic in the ECB statement and press conference. Specifically, we are looking into the future of ECB will stick to its previous badessment that the risks to the outlook are still "broadly balanced". We would expect Mr Draghi to be asked about potential "contingencies" if growth slows down further.

Katie Martin

The rates are now more likely to be generated by the excitement.But the test for the smooth-talking Mario Draghi: how to acknowledge signs of weakness in the eurozone economy, the wobbles in global markets and the EU's stand-off with Italy more concern.

Mark Odell

While we're waiting for the decision to drop, Claire's, the FT's Frankfurt office chief. You can read it here.

Delphine Strauss

Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, says the downside risks "are simply too minor and too premature for the ECB to be altered".

In his view, there would be a severe growth accident, an escalation of the Italian crisis or trade tensions with tangible consequences on ECB would change its course. "

Delphine Strauss

No one is expecting a change of race in ECB policy. The statement will almost certainly confirm that the ECB will halt badet purchases by the end of the year and keep interest rates at record lows "through the summer" of next year.

Mark Odell

Good afternoon and welcome to our live coverage of the ECB's October rate decision. 12:45 (BST) 13:45 (CET) followed by the press conference at 13:30 (BST)

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