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Federal Reserve officials meeting this week are facing an important step in their efforts to gradually raise interest rates without derailing the economy: When to tell the world that the rates of Interest is no longer so low, or more exactly, is no longer "cowardly".
This is how the internal debate at the US central bank was characterized in minutes from the June Fed meeting.
"Many (officials) noted that, if the gradual increases in the target range of the federal funds rate continued, the federal funds rate could be equal to or greater than their estimates of its neutral level the year the Committee's communications could evolve in future meetings if the economy progressed as planned, in particular a number of them noted that it may soon be appropriate to change the wording of the of the post-meeting statement indicating that monetary policy stance remains accommodative "
Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist of Jefferies, says he does not expect adjustments to come to this week's meeting, which should also not give rise to another rise in interest rates.
"How long do we think August 1 is too early," he wrote in a research note. "However, we can not exclude the possibility that the FOMC will change the wording of the August 1 policy statement to prepare the change in the phrase" the monetary policy stance remains accommodative "."
But McCarthy adds: The most effective change on August 1 would be to change the statement to "the monetary policy stance remains accommodative for now." "
The Fed has raised the interest rate repeatedly since December 2015 at 1.75% to 2%. This may sound historically low, but inscribed in the context of a recovery in employment that has taken so many years to catch up lost during the Great Recession.
Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley economist, and colleagues are on the same wavelength regarding the Federal Open Market Committee's language change:
"We expect that after having increased rates at the September meeting, the FOMC adjust its badessment that the policy direction "remains accommodative", but this reference should remain unchanged in the August statement for the time being, "write the economists from the bank in a research note.
"The bulk of the changes we expect will be a mark-to-market in the section describing current economic conditions to reflect recent data."
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