Former IDF Chief Benny Gantz could change the balance of power

According to a survey by Dr. Mina Zemach on Tuesday among 532 respondents representing a sample of Israel's adult population, the public seems to understand Lapid's motivations. In addition, the public is also in agreement with Lapid.

Former Chief of Staff Benny Gantz

Questioned: Do you think Lapid was right in deciding to support the IDF bill, 23% said that he was right and 28% said he was right. In total, 51% believe that Lapid was right, and only 29% think it was not.

Among those who voted for Lapid's Yesh Atid party in 2015, support is even higher: 70% of Yesh Atid voters think Lapid was right in his decision, and only 21% think that he was wrong. For someone who has been the victim of a lot of mockery and criticism for his decision, these are not bad numbers.

So, either Lapid knows something we do not know – maybe based on a poll that he did before the vote – or his instinct on what the public wants are better than whoever thought so.

But the public, as expected, is not stupid. He does not really believe that the main purpose of the legislation is to ensure equality in the burden of service. In fact, only 28% of the public believes that it is his goal. Sixty percent of the public thinks that there is a political solution to prevent a government crisis and will not really bring Haredim into the labor force.

Who knows, maybe these data can put an end to the roller coaster in which this law circulates, which has been cheating on us for 20 years and are forcing politicians to think about a different solution to the problem of Haredi enlistment .

The Likud led by Netanyahu – of course – suffered no loss by the bill pbaded in first reading.

PM Netanyahu (Photo: Alex Kolomoisky)

If the elections were to take place today, the Likud would have received 33 warrants.

It is interesting to see how high the bill will raise Netanyahu.

After the Likud, Yesh Atid with 18 warrants, the Zionist Union with 15 warrants, the joint list with 12 warrants, the Bayit Yehudi with seven warrants, Judaism United Torah with seven warrants, Kulanu, Yisrael Beytenu and Meretz with six terms each, and Orly Levy-Abekasis and Shas with five terms.

With these numbers, why would parties want the elections to be held today?

However, the power of each bloc does not change – The right bloc has 52 mandates, the left-center has 39 mandates, the ulta-orthodox and the Arabs have 12 mandates, and Orly Levy-Abekasis has five mandates while it is not yet clear what block she will join.

Yesh Atid President Yair Lapid (Photo: Yoav Dudkevitch)

The situation looks a little different when the man is not a man. Former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz is taken into account. If he were to lead a new party, he would receive 14 warrants (one more warrant than Gantz had received in the previous poll conducted by Mina Zemach to channel 2 news), while the Zionist Union would only bend to 10 terms.

The Likud would also lose power, according to the poll, receiving only 29 terms.

But look what happens when Gantz heads the Zionist Union instead of Avi Gabbay: The Zionist Union switches to 24 warrants (as in the current Knesset) and Yesh Atid loses four terms in relation to his election predictions held without Gantz.

So it is true that it is when Gantz is still out of the picture and we have seen what happens when a new player enters the ring and how fast it is used .

But it's no wonder no one – including Netanyahu – is in a hurry to stand for election.

Nobody wants to see what happens when a new guy arrives.