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The commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps warned that Tehran would block all exports across the Gulf of Ormuz Strait if the countries heard that the United States would stop buying oil Iranian from November.
One-fifth of world oil consumption pbades through the strait of Middle Eastern oil producers to major markets. Past clashes in the Gulf with Iran, the military capabilities of the various parties and the diplomatic context of the latest threats are described below.
Past Actions
Iran can not legally unilaterally close the watercourse because part of it is found in Oman's territorial waters. However, the ships cross Iranian waters, which are under the responsibility of the navy of the guardians of the Islamic revolution.
In 2016, guards interrogated and held US sailors overnight after they entered Iranian territorial waters elsewhere in the Gulf.
A year earlier, Iran fired on a Singapore-flagged tanker that it said had damaged an Iranian oil platform. He held a container ship and his crew for a week for a debt dispute. . In 2007, Iran detained British sailors further north in the Gulf.
Iran also organizes annual war games and tests cruise missiles and medium-range ballistic missiles. The deputy chief of the Revolutionary Guard, Hossein Salami, said in 2014 that Iran could use its missiles, drones, mines, speedboats and ballistic missile launchers in the Gulf region to confront the states. -United.
In 2015, the guards staged a demonstration, broadcast on state television, in which a replica of a US aircraft carrier was destroyed with missiles and launches loaded with explosives while the guards practiced laying mines in the strait.
In recent years, there have been periodic confrontations between US guards and military in the Gulf.
The US Navy stated that between January 2016 and August 2017, there were an average of 2.5 "dangerous" or "unprofessional" interactions per month between the US Navy and the Iranian Maritime Forces. , including an Iranian drone flying near an American war plane. an Iranian military boat sailing near a US Navy ship. Tehran has accused US forces of provocation.
"Their safety and security of their interests in the region are in our hands," said Salami this year, although the number of incidents has declined in recent months.
During the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88, both parties attacked ships in the Gulf to hinder their exports in what was known as the tanker war.
In 1988, an American frigate struck an Iranian mine, digging a hole in its hull and breaking its keel, the US Naval Intelligence Bureau said. The United States destroyed two Iranian oil terminals, sank an Iranian warship and damaged another in response, according to navy intelligence.
Military balance
The fifth US fleet, based in Bahrain, is responsible for protecting commercial vessels in the region. US authorities said the closure of the strait would go through a red line and promised to take steps to reopen it.
"We have the forces we need to maintain the free flow of trade and the freedom of navigation," Navy captain Bill Urban, spokesman for the United States Central Command, told Reuters.
Western navies also hold military exercises in the Gulf, and the Gulf Arab States of Iran, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have high-tech naval capabilities.
U.S. Naval Intelligence said in a report last year that the naval doctrine of the guards was based on speed, number, stealth, survivability and lethality, and that he had acquired gear fast attack, small boats, anti-ship missiles and mines.
"Individually, these improvements can not compete with Western technology, however, taken together, they could create an overall capacity greater than the sum of its parts, especially when it is used in narrow operational spaces. like the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Ormuz, "says the report.
The United States said it would use minesweepers, war escorts and potentially air strikes to protect free trade, but reopening the strait could be a long process, especially if guards were laying mines.
Michael Connell, head of Iran's program with the US non-profit NAC research organization, said that of all the capabilities of Iran, the mines were probably the ones causing the most concern . He also stated that a misjudged incident that would trigger a direct shot was a more likely scenario than a Strait Blockade.
"I would be less worried about an attempt to close the strait and more worried about falling into a conflict," he said.
Trading tactic?
The Iranian authorities diverge on the importance of the last threat to the closure of the strait.
"By calling on countries to cut their oil exports from Iran, America has already declared war on Iran," a senior Iranian official and a former commander of the Guard told Reuters revolutionary who served during the 1980s war in Iraq.
"If we come to this point of being unable to export any oil, we will surely close the waterway."
Another official, who, as the first refused to be named, placed the threat in the context of negotiations with the world powers on the future of the nuclear deal.
Iran said it would remain in agreement, freeing it from international sanctions in return for limiting its nuclear program, only if its interests were guaranteed.
"The Strait Issue Gives Iran an Advantage in the Negotiations – Everybody Should Know That Iran Can not Be Pressured," said the Second High head of the Iranian government. "Iran has never closed the waterway … even in the worst conditions and has put pressure on the country."
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