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With just over two weeks before the first round of new US sanctions is imposed on Iran, officials in Tehran and the capitals of its major trading partners struggle to find ways to protect US commercial links that have developed in recent years.
New US measures to restrict Iran's trade with the world should be introduced in two waves and follow the decision of President Donald Trump. May withdraw the United States from the Iranian nuclear deal, known as the Joint Action Plan Joint (JCPOA).
The first wave comes into effect on August 6 and covers areas such as financial transactions, gold trading and others. A second wave, on November 4, will cover sectors such as oil and gas, petrochemicals and petrochemicals. maritime transport.
Even before any of these measures came into effect, many European and Asian companies feared the United States took action. Giants of the French industry such as the Renault automaker, the Total oil company and the maritime giant CMA CGM have all announced their intention to withdraw from Iran. Airlines such as Austrian Airlines and the Dutch aircraft carrier KLM have announced that they are reducing or canceling their flights to Iran. Japanese banks such as Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and Mizuho Financial Group say they will no longer handle transactions involving Iran.
Such measures would seem to indicate that US sanctions are already restricting the Iranian economy in a potentially significant way. But alongside the efforts of big business to protect themselves, concerted attempts are also underway to undermine what the United States is doing.
Overall, the White House is virtually isolated in its political approach towards Iran. Although he can count on the support of some close allies in the Middle East such as Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, almost all of Iran's major trading partners try – one way or another – to dilute the impact of US measures so that they can continue to trade as freely as possible.
Bypbading Sanctions
Speaking in London on July 19, before traveling to the United States, South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha said that her government sought exemptions for its businesses. "We obtained them with sets of sanctions before the 19459020 agreement and we are looking for similar ways to minimize the impact on our industries," she said.
Kang Kyung-wha, South Korean Foreign Minister at the Chatham House think-tank, London, July 19, where she said her government was asking for exemptions from the United States for Korean companies active in the United States. Iran. (Photo: Dominic Dudley / Pacific Press / LightRocket via Getty Images)
A critical problem for South Korea is the supply of Iranian crude. About 12% of the country's oil imports came from Iran in 2017, according to the US Energy Information Administration, although this figure declined in the first few months of the year.
"Clearly, we hope to be done with all parties with the United States to get things done with Iran, but in the meantime, we want to take care of our links, especially the relations of # 39; business. We import a lot of crude oil from Iran, so it's a huge challenge for us, "he added.
Other countries, including American allies in Europe, also As a result, Iran's trading partners are seeking to develop other ways of circumventing or circumventing US measures.
Iranian reports indicate that a number of European governments – including France, Germany and the United Kingdom – have suggested Tehran to open accounts for the Iranian central bank to their own central banks. The European Union is also preparing to update its "blocking status" which, in theory at least, will provide legal cover for European companies wishing to trade with Iran in defiance of the latest US sanctions .
develop its own measures, explore the potential use of cryptocurrencies to settle cross-border transactions and perhaps set up a new international banking messaging system to compete with Swift, the current global standard. He has also sought to revive the dormant practice of barter transactions to ensure that trade continues to flow without anyone having to manipulate US dollars.
Business
However, it is unclear whether particular Europe can build a robust enough system to protect its businesses from US measures. When in doubt, most companies exposed to the US market – whether through direct sales or perhaps by need to access the US banking system – avoid Iran.
European diplomats acknowledge the difficulties they face trying to keep the nuclear deal alive. "I have to tell you that it's a tough exercise, because the US's weight in the global economy and the financial system is obviously relevant, but we're determined to preserve this deal," Federica said. Mogherini, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, at the beginning of the month.
The EU, Russia, China and others are working together on this topic. support for JCPOA
"This is not perfect.This does not cover all of Iran's behavior, but it was never designed to do it.It focuses on the program Iran and we believe that any effort likely to curb Iran's progress in the development of a nuclear weapons program should be supported, "said Julie Bishop, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran. # 39; Australia.
Like other allies in the United States, the Australian government seems to be trying not to bother the White House too much while trying to protect its commercial interests. US sanctions, we will obviously consider any application [from the US] for us to do the same, but at this point, we have acted like other JCPOA supporters and have maintained limited business opportunities with Iran " Bishop said.
Looking north and east
However, the main countries for Iran while it's trying to find a way to cope with the pressure increased US is probably not American allies but China and Russ ia.
From Tehran's point of view, these two countries have the motivation, ability, and willingness to ignore American sanctions if they wish. In addition, their companies are often less exposed to US markets and their state-owned enterprises may feel less vulnerable to Washington's pressure.
"Iran will continue to leverage its relations with Russia and China to create a bulwark against the West," predicts Ariane Tabatabai, badistant professor of security studies at the University of University of Georgetown and co-author of the recently published book Triple Axis: Iran's relations with Russia and China
Russia is complicated by a sometimes turbulent history between the two countries and the relatively hot links of Moscow with the regional opponents of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel.The relations with China are rather more direct and rely more on economic and commercial interests. May not really want to openly oppose the United States on the Iranian issue, but it wants to protect its own interests, say badysts.
"It is very difficult for China to give up oil and Iran Dina Esfan diary, researcher at the Center for Science and Security at King's College London and co-author of Tabatabai on Triple Axis . Beijing, Brussels, Moscow and other countries are enough to weaken US sanctions. This will depend at least in part on the attitudes of Iran's people and political leaders – any disruption in trade could encourage extremists in Tehran and get them to call on the country to abandon the restrictions that it has accepted on its nuclear activities and to redouble efforts. efforts. The threat of a more bellicose tone emerging from Iran is one of the reasons why American allies are so adamant about the need to oppose US policy in this area.
"We believe that it is absolutely in our security interests; we believe that it is in the interest of the security of the region and the world, "said Mogherini." I can not say if our efforts with the efforts of others are going to be enough, but what I can say, it is that we are doing everything we can and we will continue to do everything we can to try to prevent the dismantling because we believe that the consequences would be catastrophic for all. "
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Less than two weeks away from the imposition of the first round of new US sanctions on Iran, officials in Tehran and the capitals of its major trading partners s & # 39; They are trying to find ways to protect the commercial ties that have developed in recent years.
New US measures to restrict Iran's trade with the world should be introduced in two waves and follow the decision. President Donald Trump in May to pull the United States out of the Iranian nuclear deal, known as the Joint Global Action Plan (JCPOA).
The first wave comes into effect on August 6 and covers areas such as financial transactions, gold transactions and other metals and the automobile industry. A second wave, on November 4, will cover sectors such as oil and gas, petrochemicals and shipping.
Even before any of these measures came into effect, many European and Asian companies feared to attract the attention of the United States. Giants of the French industry such as the Renault automaker, the Total oil company and the maritime giant CMA CGM have all announced their intention to withdraw from Iran. Airlines such as Austrian Airlines and the Dutch aircraft carrier KLM have announced that they are reducing or canceling their flights to Iran. Japanese banks such as Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and Mizuho Financial Group say they will no longer deal with transactions involving Iran.
Such measures would seem to indicate that US sanctions are already restricting the Iranian economy in potentially significant ways. But alongside the efforts of big business to protect themselves, concerted attempts are also underway to undermine what the United States is doing.
Overall, the White House is virtually isolated in its political approach towards Iran. Although he can count on the support of some close allies in the Middle East such as Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, almost all of Iran's major trading partners try – one way or another – to dilute the impact of US measures so that they can continue to trade as freely as possible.
Bypbading Sanctions
Speaking in London on July 19, just before heading to the United States, South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha said that his government was seeking exemptions for his businesses. "We got them with the previous rounds of sanctions before the agreement [de[JCPOA] and we are looking for similar ways to minimize the impact on our industries," she said.
Kang Kyung-wha, South Korean Foreign Minister at the Chatham House think-tank, London, July 19, where she said her government was asking for exemptions from the United States for Korean companies active in the United States. Iran. (Photo: Dominic Dudley / Pacific Press / LightRocket via Getty Images)
A critical problem for South Korea is the supply of Iranian crude. About 12% of the country's oil imports came from Iran in 2017, according to the US Energy Information Administration, although this figure declined in the first few months of the year.
"Clearly, we hope to be done with all parties with the United States to get things done with Iran, but in the meantime, we want to take care of our links, especially the relations of # 39; business. We import a lot of crude oil from Iran, so it's a huge challenge for us, "he added.
Other countries, including American allies in Europe, also As a result, Iran's trading partners are seeking to develop other ways of circumventing or circumventing US measures.
Iranian reports indicate that a number of European governments – including France, Germany and the United Kingdom – have suggested Tehran to open accounts for the Iranian central bank to their own central banks. The European Union is also preparing to update its "blocking status" which, in theory at least, will provide legal cover for European companies wishing to trade with Iran in defiance of the latest US sanctions .
develop its own measures, explore the potential use of cryptocurrencies to settle cross-border transactions and perhaps set up a new international banking messaging system to compete with Swift, the current global standard. He has also sought to revive the dormant practice of barter transactions to ensure that trade continues to flow without anyone having to manipulate US dollars.
Business
However, it is unclear whether particular Europe can build a robust enough system to protect its businesses from US measures. When in doubt, most companies exposed to the US market – whether through direct sales or perhaps by need to access the US banking system – avoid Iran.
European diplomats acknowledge the difficulties they face trying to keep the nuclear deal alive. "I have to tell you that it's a tough exercise, because the US's weight in the global economy and the financial system is obviously relevant, but we're determined to preserve this deal," Federica said. Mogherini, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, at the beginning of the month.
The EU, Russia, China and others are working together on this topic. support for JCPOA
"This is not perfect.This does not cover all of Iran's behavior, but it was never designed to do it.It focuses on the program Iran and we believe that any effort likely to curb Iran's progress in the development of a nuclear weapons program should be supported, "said Julie Bishop, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran. # 39; Australia.
Like other allies in the United States, the Australian government seems to be trying not to bother the White House too much while trying to protect its commercial interests. US sanctions, we will obviously consider any application [from the US] for us to do the same, but at this point, we have acted like other JCPOA supporters and have maintained limited business opportunities with Iran " Bishop said.
Looking north and east
However, the main countries for Iran while it's trying to find a way to cope with the pressure increased US is probably not American allies but China and Russ ia.
From Tehran's point of view, these two countries have the motivation, ability, and willingness to ignore American sanctions if they wish. In addition, their companies are often less exposed to US markets and their state-owned enterprises may feel less vulnerable to Washington's pressure.
"Iran will continue to leverage its relations with Russia and China to create a bulwark against the West," predicts Ariane Tabatabai, badistant professor of security studies at the University of University of Georgetown and co-author of the recently published book Triple Axis: Iran's relations with Russia and China
Russia is complicated by a sometimes turbulent history between the two countries and the relatively hot links of Moscow with the regional opponents of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel.The relations with China are rather more direct and rely more on economic and commercial interests. May not really want to openly oppose the United States on the Iranian issue, but it wants to protect its own interests, say badysts.
"It is very difficult for China to give up oil and Iran Dina Esfan diary, researcher at the Center for Science and Security at King's College London and co-author of Tabatabai on Triple Axis . Beijing, Brussels, Moscow and other countries are enough to weaken US sanctions. This will depend at least in part on the attitudes of Iran's people and political leaders – any disruption in trade could encourage extremists in Tehran and get them to call on the country to abandon the restrictions that it has accepted on its nuclear activities and to redouble efforts. efforts. The threat of a more bellicose tone emerging from Iran is one of the reasons why American allies are so adamant about the need to oppose US policy in this area.
"We believe that it is absolutely in our security interests; we believe that it is in the interest of the security of the region and the world, "said Mogherini." I can not say if our efforts with the efforts of others are going to be enough, but what I can say, it is that we are doing everything we can and we will continue to do everything we can to try to prevent the dismantling because we believe that the consequences of all this would be catastrophic for all . "
