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Prime Minister Scott Morrison is confident Australia can navigate a “testing” and higher degree of strategic competition between the United States and China in coming years without jeopardising relations with either.
And he believes Australia, through its championing of free trade deals, both bilateral and multilateral, must act as a regional beacon for trade liberalisation in an era of creeping protectionism.
In his first major speech on foreign affairs since becoming Prime Minister, Mr Morrison will tell the Asia Society on Thursday that Australia will always regard the US as paramount in maintaining security and that without security there can be no prosperity.
“The alliance with the United States is a choice we make about how best to pursue our security interests,” he will say.
“It delivers a capability edge to our armed forces and intelligence agencies, giving Australia added weight and regional influence.
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“And US economic engagement is as essential to regional stability and prosperity as its security capabilities and network of alliances.”
At the same time, Mr Morrison will describe Australia’s economic relationship with China as “vitally important” and something he is keen to deepen further when he meets China’s leaders on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in Singapore and the subsequent Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Papua New Guinea, in the middle of November.
Mr Morrison says with China changing the regional balance of power and, hence, challenging US interests, “inevitably in the period ahead, we will be navigating a higher degree of US-China strategic competition”.
Channelling his predecessor Malcolm Turnbull, Mr Morrison will say that if the US-China relationship becomes defined by confrontation, regional stability will be at risk.
“And it risks unimagined damage to economic growth and the global order. Damage where no-one benefits. Lose-lose,” he will say.
“There must remain room for dialogue and cooperation on global issues of mutual benefit.
“The period ahead will, at times, be testing but I am confident of our ability to navigate it.”
He reiterates Australia will not piggyback on the US and will continue to lift its defence spending to support “the strongest possible US political, security and economic engagement in the Indo-Pacific”.
As well, Australia will continue to strengthen relationships with strategic allies Japan, Indonesia, South Korea and India and “work more closely than ever. with the Pacific Islands on their chief concerns, including climate change”. Mr Morrison has previously said the demands by Liberal conservatives that Australia abandon its Paris climate change commitments would create a strategic risk in the region.
The same islands, including PNG, are being wooed by Beijing. After his speech, Mr Morrison will meet PNG Prime Minister Peter O’Neill.
With tensions between the US and China threatening a debilitating trade war, Mr Morrison will promote Australia as a beacon of trade liberalisation through its membership of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which was ratified on Wednesday, as well as pursuing deals with Indonesia, the European Union and the UK.
Without mentioning the US or ChIna, who are engaged in a tit-for-tat tariff war, Mr Morrison said some countries had “legitimate concerns about the impact of policies such as subsidies which lead to overproduction”.
“Equally, there are valid concerns about the protection of technology and the rules governing the involvement of governments in markets.
“In responding to these concerns, our best tool is the negotiating table, not tariffs.”
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