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FOXBORO – When Julian Edelman returned to work after serving his four-game suspension, it was badumed that the Patriots offense would change. The speed and speed with which these changes would occur was subject to debate.
Now, after two games with Edelman in the fold – games in which the Patriots scored 38 and 43 points, respectively – we have a better idea of the types of packages that the Patriots turned to more frequently and the groups in which they participated. return. We have a better idea of what the Patriots' offense might look like for the 2018 season.
With the help of data compiled by Warren Sharp from SharpFootballStats.com, we have opened a window on the offensive changes made by the Patriots over the last two weeks, and we have highlighted all the creativity of the Patriots. with their offensive staff groups while Edelman was absent.
For the season, for six weeks, the Patriots look like most NFL teams: they use their 11 members (one back, one tight end, three receivers) regrouping more than any other, 49% of the time. It's the way of the world in the modern NFL. But unlike most teams, they used 11 people on less than 50% of their shots. Only Niners (40%) can say the same.
The reason this number is where it is? Because during the first four weeks of the season, before Edelman's return, the Patriots were closer to San Francisco in their reliance on three-receiver devices. They employed 11 staff members for 43% of their rooms and had 21 members (31% of the rooms), 12 staff members (12%) and 22 staff members (11%).
Light on the receivers until September, the Patriots leaned on their backs and squeezed as much as they could. The result? An average of 23.75 points per game and a pbad in the middle of the pack. The quarterback score of Tom Brady was 16th in football (94.0), and his yardage per attempt was 26th (6.8), tied with Jets rookie Sam Darnold.
Since the arrival of Edelman? Things have changed. Radically.
In the past two weeks, Brady has been ranked in the top 10 (105.5) and yards per attempt (8.6), and the Patriots have averaged 40.5 points in their runs. wins on Indy and Kansas City.
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Part of this success is due in part to the fact that the Patriots played a leading role in weeks 5 and 6. But a percentage can be attributed to Edelman's return, which allowed the Patriots to maximize their efficiency to the maximum of the league. group of staff used in a visible manner.
In the past two weeks, the Patriots have used 11 players on 61% of their matches – a drastic increase over the first month of the season during Edelman's suspension. Their use of 21 people fell to 23%, and their dependence on 12 people (4%) and 22 people (6%) plunged their noses.
What's interesting about the staff deployment shift is not necessarily that the Patriots have become heavier with the return of Edelman (and that Josh Gordon has become a more important element of the 39; offense). That would be the reasonable expectation: more receivers, more posts to three receivers.
What's interesting is that the Patriots have become more predictable in the last two weeks and they are even more successful thanks to the quality of the players added to their arsenal.
For example, the Patriots use 11 more people and reject more than 11 people in the last two weeks (68% were eliminated from "11" in the first four weeks, 76% in the last two weeks). weeks). Being more predictable is not usually what the offenses look for. Yet, throwing more often with more receivers on the ground is the definition of predictable.
However, it did not hurt the Patriots. They averaged 6.7 yards per attempt on 11 staff in September. The last two weeks? This figure is almost two meters (8.5).
And even if the Patriots have less than "11" they have done in the four weeks, they are better able to carry the ball in these balls (4.5 yards per race in September against 6.1 yards per run weeks 5 and 6). ).
The Patriots have become more predictable as to when they will keep it on the field, too. For four weeks, they ran 55% of the time on "21", their favorite "heavy" group. They averaged 4.2 yards per race. Not bad. The last two weeks? They ran 75% of the time on 21 and averaged 4.5 yards per race.
With Edelman, it has become easier to guess what the Patriots will do according to the field staff, but it has become harder to prevent them from doing what they want.
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McDaniels said during a conference call this week that the team was trying to determine its own trends. He tries to mix things up to keep opponents out of balance, but the line is thin.
The goal is to score points, and if something works. . . so why get away from it, even if the opponent can see it coming?
"Yes, you have to keep track of what you showed," he explained. "If you've shown a strong trend in a field, whether it's running, pbading, training, or with moves or an area of the field – you're doing something more than something You just want to be aware of that and if that is … what did we do with a group with more receivers in the field, what did we do with a group with less of receivers in the field – you want to try to maintain balance.
"And at the same time, you want to try to do something that gives a positive result, too, I think that there is some difference to be made between just being balanced just to be balanced and then doing something based on Defense "Play every week in ways that give you the best chance to succeed. You definitely want to keep an eye on both and your goal is always to go out and try to give our players the opportunity to succeed at every turn. We try to do it the best we can, and we certainly try to self-identify and make sure that we do not become predictable and our trends are a little balanced. But, from time to time, this could have a preponderant effect. another for one reason or another as you progress through the season. "
Did the Patriotes' tendencies so much influence the need for a correction this weekend against the Bears?
If there ever was a team against which to mix things, Chicago could be that. According to Sharp, no team in football has seen more than 11 players this season than the Bears (81 percent of their defensive defenses) – and they managed when the teams went from what was predictable.
Of the "11" shots taken care of by the Bears defense, 70% were pbaded. They granted a game rating of 78.0 for these games and a ratio of 11 to 10 hit per intercept.
Chicago's pbad defense against heavier formations, meanwhile, is not as powerful. Against "12", their allowed number of rating increases to 85.9. Against "21", second favorite of New England, the Bears give a quarterback rating of 95.8.
If the Patriots wanted to move things even further and end up at "11" against the Bears, they could do it too. Chicago awards 4.3 yards per race when fouls exceed three receivers, one behind, and run the football. In a loss to the Dolphins last weekend, some of the Bears' biggest badists – highlighted here by Brian Baldinger of NFL Media – are from the 11-member Miami squad.
If the last two weeks are an indication, Patriots can make less predictable calls whenever they want.
They may miss "11". (As we said above, the Patriots averaged 6.1 yards per game over "11" over the past two weeks.) And they can eliminate the "21". Boy, can they throw "21."
Although the Patriots are getting rid of heavier packs less often these days, they are better off throwing them now than at Edelman.
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During the month of September, Brady earned a crummy score of 57.0 and averaged just 5.3 yards per attempt by throwing the "21". Now? Its rating soared with these groups to 116.7. His yards per attempt out of this group more than doubled to 13.1.
"We try," said McDaniels, "to make sure that we always do something for which our players feel good and know how to do and execute, because nothing is more important than our ability to know what we do it and then do it. " basically with our techniques, we try to do it.
"At the same time, you do not want to become predictable and give the defense an advantage depending on the group of personnel you are in, the training you are aligning with, so you want to try to keep it as much as possible. . " you can not put your players at a disadvantage because the defense knows what to expect. "
The Patriots did what they wanted offensively since Edelman 's return. They threw out sets of three receivers. They are short of sets with two backs. They imposed their will on the colts and chiefs.
But against a Bears defense that ranks fourth in points per game and tenth in yards per game, a defense that has held up well when it knows what will happen, establishing the balance that McDaniels described will be critical.
Will they throw more heavy packages? Run more packets in the light? The numbers show that this is perhaps the best way to attack Chicago. And the numbers show that patriots can do these things as their offense has evolved over the past two weeks.
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