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The decision of Angela Merkel to withdraw from the presidency of the Christian Democratic Union and no longer to represent the Chancellor in 2021 opens a new era of German politics: the pre-post-Merkel era.
Her move was intended to calm the growing discontent in her party and put it on a path of renewal, while allowing Merkel to retain the reins of power as Chancellor – a strategy her CDU supporters seemed ready to endorse.
"I think giving up the leadership of the party will strengthen her as Chancellor," said Katja Leikert, CDU MP and deputy head of the party's parliamentary group. "It will gain legitimacy by giving up some of its power."
But others are not so sure, because it provides that the Chancellor will be forced to resign before the end of his fourth and final term in three years.
"Although it is difficult, I think it would be fair to have a change at the head of the government during this legislature and to enter the next Bundestag elections with a new leadership and a new program," said Joachim Pfeiffer, right-wing deputy of the CDU. "We can not just go back to business as usual."
Opposition parties went further, demanding that Merkel resign from her post as Chancellor. "[She] give up the bad job, "said Christian Lindner, chairman of the liberal FDP party. "It might be good for the CDU to have a new boss. For Germany, it would be good to have a new head of government. "
Merkel has been attacked by Conservatives for years. Many have not forgiven her liberal asylum policy during the 2015 refugee crisis, while she allowed more than one million migrants to Germany.
But pressure on it has intensified following the consecutive electoral setbacks of the CDU and its Bavarian brother party, CSU, in the key regions of Bavaria and Hesse this month.
Olav Gutting, member of the CDU, accepted the Chancellor's logic that he should step down as leader of the party. "After these terrible results, it was clear that we urgently needed a fresh start. A new beginning needs new faces, "he said.
But Merkel's ambitions to keep her government in place and to see her Chancellor's position could depend decisively on the face that the party will choose in its place.
She could probably work comfortably with Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, current secretary general of the CDU, who is often described as Merkel's ideological heiress. AKK, as its name indicates, is very attached to the party base and is in charge of drafting a new manifesto that many hope to be able to win the next generation of voters.
On the other hand, Merkel could have problems if party delegates meeting in Hamburg in December elect Jens Spahn. The Minister of Health has frequently run up against the Chancellor about refugee policy and has long been considered his main antagonist within the party.
In another bad omen for Merkel, Friedrich Merz, former chairman of the CDU parliamentary group, said he was also considering a candidacy for leadership. Mr. Merz, a conservative, was a fierce opponent of Merkel who had resisted his efforts to transfer the CDU to the political center: she had repaid him by forcing him to leave his job in 2002.
"Merkel / Spahn would be a difficult constellation, but Merkel / Merz would not work at all," said Thorsten Faas, a political scientist at the Free University of Berlin. "If Merz wins, she will have to leave."
The fact that Merkel has even agreed to relinquish the presidency of the CDU is in itself surprising. She has always insisted that the jobs of Chancellor and Head of the CDU should not be split. For some in Berlin, the fact that she has now changed her mind – claiming that it was a "risk" that could be managed for a limited period – shows that her days as Chancellor are accounts.
This was not the message she pbaded on Monday, however. Insisting that she would remain chancellor until 2021, "she told her party:" Be careful, you must always count with me, "said Faas.
No matter what happens in her own party, Merkel's future can not be totally dissociated from the dilemma faced by the social democrats, the junior partner of Merkel's grand coalition.
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The performance of the SPD in Hesse, where its share of the vote decreased by one third to 20%, was even worse than that of the CDU. Many party members have said that the only way to limit electoral losses is to leave the government. This would lead to new elections, in which Merkel would not run again.
"The CDU will stabilize after the election of a new leader, but I do not see what would happen to the SPD," said Gutting. He added that his intrepid reflection would continue to threaten the position of Merkel and endanger the grand coalition.
On the other hand, many badysts have emphasized that triggering a bankrupt government would not necessarily be in the SPD's interest.
"The main parties, especially the SPD, will want to avoid new elections at all costs because their results are so bad," said Andrea Römmele, political scientist at the Hertie School of Governance. "For this reason alone, it is likely that Merkel will succeed until 2021."
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