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Long before being president, Donald Trump was a celebrity, a mix of thoughtless political mistakes that led his billionaire populism to the oval office.
But a funny thing happened to Mr. Trump once he became president. At one point he understood that he did not want to fizzle out, like so many populists before him, think of the wrestler turned governor, Jesse "The Body" Ventura in Minnesota or Arnold "The Terminator" Schwarzenegger in California – he would need to tie his populism. to the Republican political agenda. And most importantly, he did it.
This record is easily lost among Trumpian tweets and excesses. Still, this remains a record for most Republicans: a major overhaul of the tax system that has brought the economy back to life, two outstanding jurists sitting on the Supreme Court and a record number of confirmed candidates for the courts of Canada. District and appeal, a thorough regulatory review due to the Congressional Review Act, largely unused, not to mention the establishment of the long-awaited defense.
It is precisely the kind of victories that the loss of a single House of Congress would make almost impossible in the future. Judging by the president's many rallies – and his new contacts with former opponents – he knows that too.
Take Ted Cruz, a rival of the GOP 2016 presidential primaries. During the primaries, Trump regularly called the Texas senator "Lyin 'Ted". At one point, he adopted a report from National Enquirer stating that Mr. Cruz's father had been badociated with JFK's murderer, Lee Harvey Oswald, shortly before the shooting.
As president, Mr. Trump now understands that in a tight Senate he can not afford to let a Democrat take the place of Mr. Cruz. That's why the president was in Houston last week to stage a monster rally for the senator he now calls "Beautiful Ted."
It could have been very different. After the Senate did not repeal ObamaCare in 2017, Mr. Trump complained of Mitch McConnell's leadership in the Senate. No one on the side of the people had done anything – until the Senate changed the focus by pbading something that made pbad, the law on tax cuts and jobs.
Likewise in the House. Mr. Trump can boast of having "won so much". But without the considerable legislation that President Paul Ryan and his Republican caucus sent to the President's office for his signature, the winning words would remain empty.
Give the president his due too. Yes, he filled his white house with flies (Steve Bannon), troublemakers (Omarosa Manigault), loudmouths (Anthony Scaramucci) and people named with hostility to Pat Buchanan's free trade (Robert Lighthizer). But he has also held key positions in the Trump administration with powerful conservatives who would also have been comfortable in a Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio white house (Larry Kudlow at the National Economic Council, Don McGahn in as White House lawyer, John Bolton on the National Security Council).
Mr. Trump also knew where to look for advice. In 2016, Senator Cruz challenged him before the Supreme Court judges, saying that Mr. Trump would probably choose a candidate like his sister Maryanne Trump Barry, appointed by Clinton to the Third Court of Appeal, that Mr. Cruz described as "difficult". -core liberal pro-abortion judge. "Mr. Trump responded by asking Leonard Leo, of the Federalist Society, to propose what the Conservatives consider a wish list of lawyers among whom Mr. Trump announced his choice. Once again, he did it.
In other words, despite all the talk about how Mr. Trump's populism is changing the Republican Party, his most important achievements have been accomplished when he has tied his populism to traditional conservative priorities and has then worked with his Republican colleagues to keep his promises.
That's why the stakes are high on Tuesday. Losing the House may not be the end of the world for the President – Trump may even consider President Nancy Pelosi a gift from here to 2020 – but that would surely mean the end of major legislative breakthroughs such as we have known these past two years.
Losing the Senate would be even worse. Democrats remain unconvinced by McConnell's decision two years ago not to hold a hearing for Merrick Garland, Barack Obama's Supreme Court candidate, during a hearing. presidential election year. If the Democrats get control, they will use it to thwart many of Mr. Trump's candidates, be it for the federal courts or his own cabinet. And if a Democratic House succeeds in removing the President, Mr. Trump will want as large a majority as possible from the GOP in the Senate.
Despite all the bumps and bruises, the Trump-Republican collaboration has made important achievements to the American people. But if these courses follow their normal historical course, the GOP will lose one or both chambers of Congress. And that would in turn test the effectiveness of Mr. Trump's populism without his Republican Capitol Hill fellow citizens on the agenda.
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