Ultra-Orthodox and Arab population Israel – the front

Long-term population projections predict that the demographic makeup of Israeli society will change significantly over the next 50 years, which will impact the Israeli economy. On the basis of current fertility rates, the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) estimates that the Haredim (ultra-Orthodox Jews) and Israeli Arabs – who make up about one third of the total Israeli population today – will understand about 50% of the population 2059.

This change could affect the Israeli economy as a whole because Arab-Israeli and Haredi population groups are characterized by relatively low levels of human capital, and Arab men Israeli and Haredis have particularly low employment rates. However, important demographic changes, as highlighted by the new Taub Center research, are not taken into account in the projections and could modify these figures in a substantial, quantitative, if not qualitative, way.

CBS projections are based on fertility rates. Israeli Haredim and Arabs have more children, on average, than non-Haredis Jews. However, since the 1960s, fertility rates have dropped drastically among all groups of Israeli Arabs: Muslims, Christians and Druze. This is not surprising given the increase in income and, more recently, the increase in the proportion of Arab Israeli women who receive higher education and work, which tends to accompany a decline in fertility rates. At the same time, Jewish fertility has increased – not only among the Haredim, but also among secular and traditional Jews.

Beyond fertility rates, there have been surprising demographic changes in first-year enrollment in schools. the movement of students between religious currents in the education system between the first and the eighth grade. The Israeli education system is composed of four systems of public education functioning independently: the haredi, the state (religious), the state (secular) and the Arab. At the beginning of the 2000s, first-year education in the various educational sectors reflected the fertility rates in each sector. However, during the current decade, enrollment growth in the Haredi system was lower than expected due to fertility rates, while growth was larger than expected in the state system. Between the first and eighth grade, students also move from a more religious educational setting to a less religious setting.

To the extent that these trends reflect the secularization of students and their families, and to the extent that these trends continue, could have very significant effects on the future composition of the Israeli population.

Meanwhile, other changes are taking place within Israeli Arab and Haredi population groups that have implications for Israel's future economy.

In recent years, Arab Israelis have improved on indicators such as international test scores, enrollment rates, and labor market participation. The changes among Israeli Arab women, who are pursuing university studies at much higher rates, are particularly remarkable. Although people with university degrees tend to be employed at higher rates in general, the phenomenon is extremely important among Israeli Arab women.

For Haredim, women and men work more – not only in the whole. . More haredi men study in the academic world and, although dropout rates are higher for them than for other population groups, haredi men who pursue university studies are more likely to work – even if they do not finish their studies –

It is important to note that there is still a long way to go to narrow the gaps in education and employment between the non-Haredis Jews and the Arab Israelis and the Haredim. However, the above trends are already bringing changes to the Haredi population groups and Israeli Arabs. In addition, the Arab-Israeli and Haredi populations are overall younger than the non-hared Jewish population, which means that the changes that are occurring in the younger segments of these population groups (eg education and higher education) ) For the future, the best way to prepare for the demographic changes that the future holds is to invest more in the education and skills of these population groups in order to improve their lives. level of human capital and their integration into the Israeli labor force.