What the conflict in the Kerch Strait means for the future of democracy in Ukraine

Ukraine's democratic progress is fragile and the national opposition is likely to manifest itself in an ugly fashion, regardless of Russia.

Russia's 26 November attack on the Ukrainian navy in the Kerch Strait off the coast of Crimea, followed by the imposition of martial law in Kiev the following day, saw the Ukrainian conflict again of world news. At the dawn of its fifth year, the war in eastern Ukraine claimed the lives of 11,000 people, displaced millions of people and led to the return of trench warfare to the European landscape. However, key policymakers – in Ukraine as well as in the wider West – seem to be trapped in inertia and are proposing largely unrealistic or dangerously escalating policy proposals. Looking ahead to what the incident means for Ukraine, it is clear that the status quo has long been waiting for a change.

First of all, it should be noted that the imposition of martial law, which will enter into force on November 28, is unprecedented in the independent history of Ukraine. The Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian parliament, voted in favor of this measure for the southern and eastern regions of the country, as well as for the province of Vinnytsia, the southern border bordering the Moldovan separatist region of Transnistria. The enclave depends on Russian military and economic support, as well as the proxy regimes that control half of the self-declared provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk – its easternmost regions. The conflict in eastern Ukraine shows no signs of improvement as clashes on the ground continue unabated, even though no intensification or change in the lines of control has occurred since 2015. .

No Sideshow

In declaring martial law, President Petro Poroshenko warned that the Ukrainian intelligence service had uncovered a Russian plot to launch a ground invasion and spoke of the threat posed by the Kremlin's significant military presence along the Ukrainian borders. Moscow has kept control of the Crimea since the annexation of the peninsula in 2014, so that the Russian threat is also palpable within the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine. Without access to the documents quoted by Poroshenko (they have not been published), it is impossible to say how this threat might have changed in recent days.

It is partly for this reason that voices as influential as the former US ambbadador to Ukraine, John Herbst, have rejected the introduction of martial law as a "hidden side". It is a mistake. The very nature of Western support for Ukraine derives less from realistic considerations of power and geopolitics than from the fact that the so-called Euromedan revolution was so clearly aimed at transforming Ukraine into a liberal democratic state. If the imposition of martial law threatens this development, it would be an unrestricted victory for the Kremlin, which wants nothing more than to discredit the Ukrainian revolution and its progressive aspirations.

In an attempt to dispel these concerns, the Verkhovna Rada applied martial law for 30 days instead of the initial 60-day recommendation. It also adopted a resolution guaranteeing that the presidential election scheduled for March 2019 would proceed as planned. It is certainly to be hoped, in the interests of Russia and Ukraine, as well as of the whole world, that a large-scale invasion will not occur, but the Kremlin will continue to risk strongly from seek to disrupt this vote, potentially by new provocations. .

The Ukrainian elections also pose national problems, of course. Oligarchic control of the economy and key policy blocks remain a major challenge, and institutional reforms are sorely lacking, even if there are some glimpses of progress. It is therefore necessary to strengthen ties with Ukrainian civil society, which has not only been at the forefront of the Euromaidan movement, but has valuable experience facing the challenges facing the country, that no government or group of 39, foreign activists can not reproduce. For example, the non-profit badociation Fakes Radar, which serves to combat Russian disinformation, was founded by Dmytro Potekhin – the man who helped to highlight the fraud committed during the presidential elections of 2004 that preceded the Orange Revolution. Yet such militants do not even have the impression of political influence of the country's oligarchs; outside support can help rebalance the scales.

The choice that the Ukrainian people make with regard to the next president of the country must remain theirs and theirs. It is true that populist forces are on the rise and the current favorite in the polls is a controversial former Prime Minister with a back-and-forth history, Yulia Tymoshenko. However, supporters of Ukraine must also recognize that his country's progress in democracy is extremely fragile and that the national opposition is likely to manifest itself in an ugly fashion, regardless of Russia. However, the preparation for such eventualities and the efforts to ensure the purchase of voice and rigging do not dry up the election is lacking.

Sending signals

Instead of such constructive efforts, there can be many calls for the West to act to strengthen support for Ukraine through clear military signaling. Anders Åslund, senior official of the Atlantic Council, one of the most prolific voices of the United States in the Ukrainian conflict, called on NATO to send ships into the Sea of ​​Azov to ensure its availability for international shipments. Not only would such an effort be extremely intensive, but it is also highly unlikely that it will receive support from Turkey – NATO's most powerful navy in the region – given the deepening of relations between the President Recep Tayyip Erdoǧan and Vladimir Putin.

This does not mean that Ukraine's allies can not take any action to support it. An intervention in Russia and the Ukrainian economic conflict alongside Kiev would be a decisive first step. The United States could immediately strive to resume the sovereign bond guarantee program actually frozen by the Trump government. The United States has offered such guarantees for $ 3 billion of Ukrainian debt between 2014 and 2017 and should do it again, because Russia's shares in Financing costs of Ukraine again, restricting Kiev's access to international credit markets. The International Monetary Fund should also take into account the political economy of the prescribed economic reforms in Ukraine, where populist and even anti-democratic groups seize them to provoke opposition to government and ideals. of the Euromaidan movement.

There will certainly be calls for new sanctions against Russia. Discussions on such measures are already underway regarding the attack of Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yuliya in Britain in March. The US Congress is also discussing new measures, though – at least prior to the Kerch incident – it was expected that they would be postponed until at least January, when the new Congress will be seated. Many sanctions regimes are theoretically linked to Russia's actions in Ukraine and, at least in theory, would be fully relaxed or totally lifted if Russia complied with the Minsk protocol, even if it would leave the Kremlin at a high level. unacceptable influence. to many of its citizens.

Deterrent

However, many escalations still have to be subject to specific sanctions. For example, although Australia and the Netherlands announced in May that they held Russia legally responsible for shooting down Flight 17 of Malaysian Airlines on the east of the island. 39, Ukraine in July 2014, no direct measures were imposed. Ukraine is still unable to deploy its own air force in its own skies to face separatist proxies in Donetsk and Luhansk because of Russia's threats to use its anti-aircraft firepower in its defense.

Instead of debating sanctions whenever Russia undertakes an escalation in Ukraine or renewing them every six months, as the European Union is currently doing, Ukraine's allies should consider defining sanctions that would automatically come into force. force in case of different escalations. Strong arguments have been made that such sanctions have been effective, particularly with regard to the Russian economy, although some valid arguments have been made to justify their inability to isolate Russia politically.

But if the goal is that the sanctions have a chilling effect on Russian hostilities, said Heather Nauert, spokesman for the state department, next August, they should be, so he We need to know exactly what measures Russia will face if it intensifies. . Given the poor state of the Russian economy and the growing Russian sentiment that Putin is responsible for the economic problems facing the country, such an effort could be effective in preventing any escalation in Ukraine.

It is a difficult and precarious period for Ukraine, especially for domestic and foreign decision-makers, whose efforts have not yet allowed Ukraine to meet the promises of Ukraine. ; euromaidan. The recent escalation and imposition of martial law only add to Kiev's myriad challenges and pose a far-reaching threat. This requires the development of reasonable and employable policies that deter further escalation and also help Ukrainian civil society play a leading role in the development and protection of the country's future.

The opinions expressed in this article are unique to the author and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer's editorial policy.

<! –

->