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While President Trump began Tuesday a six-day trip to Europe, which is expected to culminate on Monday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Putin has had some meetings on his own.
Benjamin Netanyahu, a frequent visitor, who said that he wanted to talk to the Russian leader "without intermediaries." A few hours later, Putin sat down with Ali Akbar Velayati, the foreign policy adviser of Iran's supreme leader.
The main topic of the meeting was Syria, also one of the main points on Trump 's agenda.
"Of course I will talk about it" with Putin, Trump said Friday during a stop in Britain. "I'm not leaving with high expectations," he says, "but we can come out with surprising things."
As Trump and Putin prepare to meet in Helsinki, the Middle East's allies and opponents turn to Putin to rebadure and understand how such surprises might affect them. For Iran, which has partnered with Russia to keep Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power and decimate its US-backed opposition, keeping Moscow on the sidelines is a no-brainer. .
But for many American allies in the region they have little understanding of Trump's long-term strategy in Syria, he is increasingly anxious to know what he is willing to offer to Putin in exchange for help to achieve what he said to be his main goal of expelling Iran
. Senior officials of several regional governments, some of which also include administrative officials, believe that Trump will accept a partial or complete withdrawal of US forces from Syria – as demanded by Syria and Russia – or even recognize the Annexation of Crimea by Russia. and give up US sanctions
[Branding Putin: How the Kremlin turned the Russian president into a global icon]
Trump signed Wednesday the NATO communiqué stating that he would never accept the takeover of Crimea by Russia "illegal and illegitimate". If he breaks ranks, it would be his most direct slap to the alliance, at a time when the unity of NATO is already at stake.
S & # 39; worrying about the suppression of the 2200 US military contingent in Syria, however, is seen as a more realistic possibility. Trump's suggestion earlier this year that the United States would withdraw its troops from Syria "very soon", widely interpreted as meaning six months, continues to create confusion within the US military, not to mention regional partners US.
Military officials see the changing dynamics in southwestern Syria, as Assad strengthens its control over rebel-held areas, disconnected from their ongoing campaign against the ## 147 ## 39 Islamic State. But they also see the situation as a signal of the new Syrian reality – one in which Assad will remain in power, aided by Russia and Iran. Although officials said on Friday that they were not planning to start withdrawing their troops, they said they were preparing to pull out.
Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and others, according to senior Middle East officials, The condition of anonymity of the name and country to avoid questioning Trump publicly agrees that such a move would be disastrous, eliminating any leverage that the United States still has to exert to achieve an acceptable result in Syria.
– Potin Summit, Russia continued to defend the presence of Iran in Syria and demanded the complete withdrawal of the United States, accusing its military deployments of being a sham.
"Let me remind you that they talked about defeating the ISIL." Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told an Italian newspaper Thursday, using an acronym for the Now, he said, the Americans "[their] say that the presence in Syria should continue to discourage the hypothetical" Iranian influence. ""
"If our American colleagues pursue any action in Syria, it is too contradictory called a strategy, "said Shoigu.The regional allies share the goal of preventing Iran from establishing an unhindered corridor through the Syria, from Tehran to Beirut, but they fear that Trump is too willing to accept badurances that Putin has neither the desire nor the ability to deliver.
Security officials in several countries in the region are skeptics that the Russians may force an Iranian withdrawal even 9 they want. "Assad owes everything to Iran, and he plays a game between the Russians and the Iranians," said an official from the region.
At the same time, another senior official in the region said, "The Russians are playing well, Putin would not move without thinking 10 moves in advance."
Confused by messages from the crowd. seemingly contradictory administration, and doubting that the United States has a plan to achieve their long-term goals in Syria, regional allies have reached out to Russia. . "For years, there has been a growing disappointment with the American posture in the region," said a third official. "Countries are starting to make their own calculations."
The recent Assad offensive in south-west Syria, bordered by Jordan and the Golan Heights occupied by Israel, is a good example. The region was largely peaceful since last summer, when Putin and Trump approved a ceasefire agreement that froze Syrian government forces and US-backed opposition fighters. along a demarcation line patrolled by Russian police. However, the Assad forces, aided by Russian air strikes and Iranian-led militias, started from southern Damascus for an announced takeover of the region. As the offensive began, the administration publicly denounced Russia for violating the ceasefire agreement, while saying to regional allies that it was not going to happen. would not oppose the movement and informed the opposition forces that they would get nothing.
The administration has apparently asked Russia nothing in return. As refugees from Russian ground attacks and bombings took refuge in neighboring borders and humanitarian organizations warned of the disaster, Israel and Jordan both turned to Moscow to protect their interests
]. the news from Washington, Russia came through. Earlier this week, at the Nasib crossing in Jordan, where tens of thousands of refugees were packed in disastrous conditions against the closed border, only a few hundred remained in front of Syrian soldiers who arrived with a small convoy. 19659023] While the Russians kept a discreet presence at the border, their impact was palpable, and Jordan, despite its non-secret support for rebel groups in the past, praised the result. "Now, I believe that even within a week, most groups [rebel] will agree on the terms, and some will be reinstated in their communities," Brig. General Khaled Mbadaid, head of the military district of northern Jordan, said in an interview to his command center a few tens of meters from the border crossing
The civil war in Syria lasted for years, including the costs managing about 1.3 million refugees. "Nasib's border has reopened, and the regime is back in charge," Mbadaid said. "It's better for Jordan if Syria is able to control its own border."
While Israel, like the United States, continues to demand the complete withdrawal of Iran from Syria, its immediate concern is to keep the Iranians at least 50 miles or more. far from its border. Netanyahu left Moscow last week – his third visit since the spring – with what the Israeli media announced was an agreement with Russia, to move Iran and its militias away from the border area and to close their eyes on Israeli strikes against Iranian targets. Syria: the latest one last week
"It is very clear that Russia and Israel are cooperating in Syria, the Saudis and Russia are cooperating," said a senior international diplomat deeply involved in the conflict, who called the contacts of "good" insofar as they "helped to calm things".
"The Americans", the diplomat said, now consider "Syria … a Russian thing."
But Senator Lindsey O. Graham (RS.C.), a staunch supporter of keeping American troops in Syria and a skeptic from Russia, tweeted a warning to Netanyahu. "For our friends in Israel," he writes, "be very careful in entering into agreements with Russia on Syria that affect the interests of the US I do not trust Russia to monitor Iran or someone else in Syria. "
Warrick reported from Nasib border crossing in Jordan. Missy Ryan contributed to this report.
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