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The heavily worded statement is expected to be subject to significant amendments and could be vetoed by China in Tuesday’s debate, two EU diplomats said.
The debate over how to respond to the Myanmar crisis highlights an asymmetric clash between a China that has hard-wired the UN in recent years and a Biden administration that doesn’t even have its ambassador in place yet. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, appointed by Biden to lead the USUN mission, faced difficult questions about China before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on January 27. She described China as a “strategic adversary” but stopped short of calling for China’s systematic crackdown on its Uyghur population as “genocide”. Thomas-Greenfield is awaiting a committee vote to send his candidacy to the Senate.
Beijing has stayed on the sidelines so far. “China is a friendly neighbor of Myanmar. We hope that all parties in Myanmar can deal appropriately with their disputes under the constitution, ”Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said on Monday. China’s state-run news agency Xinhua described the coup as a “major cabinet reshuffle.”
Barbara Woodward, the UK’s ambassador to the UN, admitted Monday that “we don’t have specific ideas on the measures. We will discuss what measures we believe will help. ”
As the UK leaves all options open to reach a deal, UK officials have said they expect it could take 48 hours before a substantive agreement on how to respond to the coup is reached. concluded. They are determined to use the global reaction against the coup to make a strong case for the restoration of Myanmar’s democratic government. The end result, however, can be watered down – a declaration on the need to avoid violence and to release civilians from detention.
“I would not expect any serious product from the Council,” Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group said in Tuesday’s debate. “This kind of closed-door meeting is really a chance for diplomats to probe themselves a bit and signal if they’re open to more serious UN discussions,” said Gowan, who believes it could take several. quiet diplomacy meetings and cycles before China. is ready to join a consensus.
There are pitfalls with every path to take.
Myanmar has long divided the Security Council, most recently over the brutal crackdown on the country’s Rohingya Muslim minority, which many consider genocide.
After witnessing a toxic dynamic in debates over the Syrian civil war, in which Russia has repeatedly blocked efforts to sanction the Damascus-based government for its conduct during the 10-year conflict, the democratic powers tried to avoid opposing a permanent member of the Council, who has his veto.
“If the western group gets into a big fight with the Chinese, it will turn against everyone,” Gowan said.
China is unwilling to align itself with democracies over Myanmar’s coup, but it remains in an awkward position: blocking UN action risks undermining efforts to redress them. bilateral relations with the Biden administration.
The common ground appears to be that the United States and China are skeptical of the leadership of the coup. Beijing has established “a warm relationship with Aung San Suu Kyi, which has deepened as Western countries distanced themselves from her,” said Champa Patel of Chatham House. Chinese officials are skeptical of the independence of the military which “sought to balance Chinese rule in the country,” Patel said.
This leaves open the possibility of a Security Council agreement in the days to come, albeit a question of avoiding violence and restoring stability in Myanmar.
The possibility of broad sanctions seems limited to the shared stance Democratic allies can reach, setting an early test of the ability of the Biden administration and EU countries to coordinate their diplomacy.
EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell said on Monday that the EU would work to “ensure a coordinated response”. The EU has had strained relations with Aung Sung Suu Kyi due to her refusal to condemn the crackdown on Myanmar’s Rohingya minority, the European Parliament in 2020 formally suspending her from the Sakharov Prize community, it is the prize the most prestigious for human rights, awarded to him in 1990..
The history of global action against Myanmar is mixed.
Western countries downgraded diplomatic relations with Myanmar after the 1988 military coup, to little effect. Aung Sung Suu Kyi remained under house arrest until 2010, despite EU sanctions from 1991 and the US investment ban from 1997. Comprehensive sanctions in place from 2003 ultimately contributed to Myanmar’s transition to democracy from 2011, but “there is no indication of the adoption of such sanctions. tactics are now sufficient to prevent the military from moving forward and asserting its rule, ”Patel of Chatham House said.
The Biden administration on Monday offered the option of unilateral sanctions, encouraged by bipartisan support in Congress for a firm response to the coup. Announcing “an immediate review of our sanctions laws and authorities, followed by appropriate action,” Biden called the coup “a direct attack on the country’s transition to democracy and the state of law”.
Senator Bob Menendez (DN.J.), new chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, called for “tough economic sanctions, along with other measures.” Michael McCaul, the senior Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said the Myanmar military had on several occasions “Has failed to prove that he can act as a reasonable and trustworthy actor on the world stage.”
The State Department and the US mission to the UN did not respond to a request for comment.
Although the military has yet to resort to violence, the International Crisis Group has said mass protests and violent military crackdowns on protesters are a real possibility. “If so, the military takeover will not only disrupt Myanmar’s slow and difficult democratic transition, but could also lead to deadly violence,” the group said in a written statement.
“Myanmar is a country awash with weapons, with deep divisions between ethnic and religious borders, where millions of people can barely feed themselves, ”tweeted historian Thant Myint-U, grandson of former UN Secretary General U Thant, and the situation only worsened during Covid-19.
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