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At 52-50, the Tampa Bay Rays are much better this season than everyone except the most optimistic. Manager Kevin Cash cleverly matched his pitcher team with the team's "opener" strategy, to the point that he was given the title of mid-season manager of the year [19659002]. – The Rays are 49-38 since their start 3-12 – it remains no less than the Rays are 18 1/2 games behind in the East AL and nine games back from the second place of wild-card AL. FanGraphs puts their post-season ratings at 0.5 percent. SportsLine is slightly more optimistic at 1.1%. The current situation of Tampa strongly suggests that they will miss the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season
More expiry for MLB exchanges
Given these probabilities in series, the front office has acted accordingly. On Wednesday, the Rays traded both Nathan Eovaldi (19459003) against the Red Sox (19459004) and Matt Andriese (19459003) with the Diamondbacks (19459004), and a few weeks ago, Alex Colome and Denard Span ( to seamen ). Other players like Sergio Romo, Wilson Ramos, Carlos Gomez and Jonny Venters could be moved ahead of Tuesday's deadline for non-waiver deals.
Another player who could be traded: Chris Archer, who is no stranger to the circuit of commercial rumors. It has been part of the trading block for years, and that makes sense, is not it? The Rays have not been competing for a while and they have a habit of trading their best players as they become more expensive. Everyone from Evan Longoria to David Price to James Shields to Matt Garza was traded.
Unsurprisingly, the teams are once again on Archer before the trading deadline. MLB.com's Jon Morosi has the latest:
A source told MLB.com that up to eight teams have contacted the Rays about Archer recently … The D-backs, Cubs Padres and Phillies are among the teams interested in Archer, and all had scouts to witness the performance of 13 Archer batters on Sunday.
The Rays have so far resisted the temptation to exchange Archer. Given their history, it would not surprise me to see it exchanged tomorrow. These things can change quickly. In fact, I do not think there is a better time for the Rays to exchange Archer than now, which means at some point before the July 31 trading deadline. Here are the two main reasons why Tampa should move its nominal ace for what would surely be a strong package of prospects.
The pitch market is very weak
This is not a good deadline for trade. There are no real creators of differences with available long-term control. With Eovaldi on the board, the best rentals are J.A. Happ, Cole Hamels and Tyson Ross. Zack Wheeler would be available, although the Mets do not seem willing to trade Jacob deGrom or Noah Syndergaard. The pitch market is weak.
Because of this, the interest in Archer could be even greater than usual (and it's usually pretty awesome). The trading market is determined by supply and demand. There are a lot of teams looking for pitchers and not a lot of quality pitching available. Archer was going to change the market and attract the interest of every type of team, including contenders and rebuilders. In other words, in this thin market, the rays would control the high launching badet. MLB: Tampa Bay Rays to the Minnesota Twins "data-lazy =" https://sportshub.cbsistatic.com/i/r/2018/07/26/b499fddd-e06f-463a-8111-a8629775025c/resize/670×377/ 36cef0715e8c4780ccfa1e56a0f58cc9 / usatsi-10949133.jpg "src =" http://www.cbssports.com/ "height =" 377 "width =" 670 "/>
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To be honest, the Rays missed their chance to trade Archer for maximum value a few years ago. Its value was highest after the 2015 season, when Archer recorded 212 innings with 252 strikeouts and a 3.23 ERA (121 ERA +) on the way to fifth place in the AL Cy Young vote.
Fast Forward Until July 2018 There are three main reasons why the commercial value of Archer should decrease from here. One is his age. He's 30 in September (yes, really) and 30 is a scary number in baseball these days. Teams do not like to pay for players after their bonus. They look at Archer and see someone whose best years are probably behind him.
Secondly, the clock turns on his contract. Archer owes $ 7.67 million next season and his contract includes club options for 2019 ($ 9 million) and 2020 ($ 10 million). A bargain rate, without a doubt. But if the Rays exchange Archer now, they can sell him as a pitcher who can help you for four post-season races. Swap it after the season, and there are only three. It matters.
And thirdly, the performance of Archer has slipped in recent years. He was a borderline ace-caliber earlier in his career. Now? Now Archer is closer to a league average pitcher, and well, the league average is valuable in his own way. Just not as valuable as someone who could pbad for an ace. The numbers:
|
2013-15 |
535 1/3 |
3.26 |
117 |
3.36 |
1.19 |
8.8 |
3.0 |
0.8 |
8.7 [19659030] 2016-18 |
492 1/3 |
4.09 |
99 |
3.59 |
1.27 |
10.6 |
2.9 |
1.2 |
3.8 |
The last start of Archer perfectly encapsulated the experience "Chris Archer in 2018". Against the Marlins last Sunday, Archer pulled out the mark of 13 and made zero in six innings. It's great! He also allowed four runs on eight hits, including a homerun. Many strikeouts, more races than you would like.
Supporters of bady dam points and walking rates. Critics point out the increase in hard contact. Here is Archer over the years:
Fangraphs
Not a good trend. It's a thing for a player to have a dead season or underperform his FIP – FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, is a metric at ERA that rates a pitcher on his barred fares , walk and run home – for a few months or even through a full season. Archer has done it for nearly 500 innings now. We have reached the point where it's not crazy to think that's what it is. Barred and swing-and-miss rates are excellent. But mistakes are too frequent and hurt.
Here's what a scout recently told Jerry Crasnick about Archer:
"If you're waiting for someone to save a season like Verlander did it with the Astros last year, it is "This is not that kind of guy," said the scout. "He is stubborn when it comes to field selection. But he is such a good competitor, and he will not leave anything there.
"I do not think that he is the first runner, personally, or the second.I will make more mistakes than a No. 1 or No. 2. He may present himself as a # 1 on a given day or a # 5 on a given day, I think it's in the middle of these two specters. "http://www.cbssports.com/"
This sums it up nicely : some days Archer will dominate as he has done since 2013-15 but there are far too many days like sunday, when battleshows are there, between the decline in performance, his 30th birthday and the years that Upon completing his love contract, it's hard to see how the commercial value of Archer goes anywhere, but from here. In the best case, it remains unchanged at the moment. Offset: The more Tampa waits, the less Archer becomes valuable to the teams involved.Empation – Archer is an A-plus teammate and a person who is a great ambbadador of the game. teams wanting to add Archer to their rotation. At worst, you can count on him to be a mean league sleeve eater on a bargain deal. At best, he can cast as an ace. Maybe not as often as he's already done, but the ability is still there.
The current pitchers market is very thin, although there are still many teams looking for high-end spinning help. Archer fits. Even with the drop in performance, the Rays would receive a heavy package for Archer right now, probably better than anything they could hope to go from the front. Tampa has come out of the playoff race and there is enough of a tendency in the wrong direction with Archer who, the more the Rays are waiting to trade, the more risky he gets.
