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It's the continual conflict of today's baseball: the arsenal of pitchers with high-powered fastballs facing the marketplace.
Boston vs. L.A. might be a clbadic confrontation in basketball, but the 2018 title bout is an MLB first. How do the two clubs match up?
Will the Astros swing for a huge upgrade behind the plate? Can the Brewers shore up their rotation? We look at each team faces this winter.
From the wild-card round the World Series, we'll have the 2018 postseason covered.
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It's no surprise then that both clinching games of the league championship series turned on home runs. In the American League, Rafael Devers hit at 98 mph at the top of the strike zone of Justin Verlander and lofted it into the Crawford Boxes in left field at Houston's Minute Maid Park, a ball that would have been a home run at just one park in the majors. Right time, right place, and three runs for the Red Sox in a 4-1 Game 5 victory over the Astros.
In the National League Championship Series, the Dodgers, who led the NL and ranked second in the majors with 235 home runs, had spent six games trying to hit home runs without much success. They had hit just three, but managed nonetheless to split those six games. In the final, Cody Bellinger hit a two-run homer and Yasiel Puig won a three-run shot and the Dodgers won 5-1 to return to the World Series.
It follows that the team that hits home is the best bet to win the World Series. That's true, but the team that hits home runs is just 8-6 in the past 15 World Series (with one tied in home runs):
World Series HR tallies
| year | Winner | HR | Loser | HR | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Astros | 15 | Dodgers | 10 | Astros in 7 |
| 2016 | Cubs | 8 | Indians | 7 | Cubs in 7 |
| 2015 | Royals | 2 | dish | 6 | Royals in 5 |
| 2014 | Giants | 2 | Royals | 3 | Giants in 7 |
| 2013 | Red Sox | 4 | Cardinals | 2 | Red Sox in 6 |
| 2012 | Giants | 4 | Tigers | 3 | Giants in 4 |
| 2011 | Cardinals | 8 | combat boots | 9 | Cardinals in 7 |
| 2010 | Giants | 7 | combat boots | 3 | Giants in 5 |
| 2009 | Yankees | 6 | Phillies | 11 | Yankees in 6 |
| 2008 | Phillies | 9 | rays | 4 | Phillies in 5 |
| 2007 | Red Sox | 3 | Rockies | 3 | Red Sox in 4 |
| 2006 | Cardinals | 2 | Tigers | 4 | Cardinals in 5 |
| 2005 | White Sox | 6 | Astros | 3 | White Sox in 4 |
| 2004 | Red Sox | 4 | Cardinals | 2 | Red Sox in 4 |
| 2003 | Marlins | 2 | Yankees | 6 | Marlins in 6 |
Consider more than 40 percent of the runs scored in the main season through the home run. With so many strikeouts and so few basic hits, sustained rallies are still rare. It's easier to hit a home run than it is to hit three singles. You need to hit the ball over the fence to win.
And yet … this series might not be a better place to be, but which team is better at winning the ballout. After all, the Astros and Brewers hit the LCS like the Red Sox and Dodgers, and they're going to be watching on TV.
There is little doubt that Boston's two-strike approach against Houston was a key to winning that series. The Astros had one of the best pitching staffs in history. In the regular season, the Astros struck out 28.5 percent of the batters they faced. In the ALCS, that figure was just 19.4 percent. The Red Sox, in fact, struck out at 19.9 percent, and they were the third-toughest team to strike out in the regular season.
"I think it's been a good [approach]" Xander Bogaerts said before Game 5. "I'm thinking about the big approach, it's not the best one against these guys, just try to single, put up good at-bats and get up and hopefully the next guy can do damage. "
The Red Sox had 40 hits in the series – 18 with two strikes. In 23 flat appearances with a full count, they hit .364 / .696 / .455 – drawing 12 walks against just four strikeouts. Some of the key hits in the series came with two strikes. Ian Kinsler had 2-2 fastball ahead of Devers 'home run in Game 5. In Game 4, Devers' two-run single in the first cam on a 0-2 curveball from Charlie Morton. In the third inning of the game, Bogaerts doubled in a run on a 3-2 pitch. In the seventh, Bogaerts and Steve Pearce both walked on 3-2 pitches from Ryan Pressly and Brock Holt later on with the bases loaded.
From the first pitch of every series to the last of Game 7, you can catch the MLB postseason on ESPN Radio. Listen »
"RBIs are becoming acceptable," Red Sox manager Alex Cora said before Game 5. "We do not mind strikeouts, but not in certain situations. They've been having a very humbling approach throughout the series, putting the ball in play and putting the ball in play with two strikes. "
As Cora said, you're giving yourself a chance if you put the ball in play. That was the case with Devers' base hit in Game 4. It was just a soft looper into left-center, but he did not strike out.
"We put together your good at-batts," said Holt. "That's the kind of thing we're doing, but we're not really good at it." walk, you hit a single, a fly bag, that wears guys down, then you get the big blow, you can get a base blow, the chances are you can get a big blow instead of a solo home run. "
Get this, however: In Game 5, with the score tied 1-1 in the bottom of the sixth and two on and one out, Muncy knocked in the go-ahead to another ground-ball 2 pitch. Two batters later, Puig knocked in with a two-strike base hit.
So, yes, this World Series might come down to two powerful lineups and their ability to hit the long ball. Or it could come down to those two-strike hits. Let's not call it small ball – you're not going to see either team bunting – but let's call it smart ball.
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