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If you believe the latest Week 11 NFL odds, it’s going to be an entertaining week of games that could come down to the wire. In fact, six matchups have NFL spreads of a field goal or less, including the Giants now being favored by one against the Buccaneers after the line opened as a pick’em. Only one game has a spread of more than a touchdown, as the Saints are favored by eight against the Eagles in the Superdome, up one from the opener. And in arguably the game of the year so far, the Rams (-3.5) and Chiefs, both at 9-1, battle on Monday Night Football in LA. In that blockbuster, the over-under, or total projected points, stands at a monstrous 63, one of the highest NFL totals ever. Before you decide which NFL odds and spreads to attack, be sure to check out the Week 11 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 11 on a blistering 10-0 run. For the season, it is now 24-9 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 72-43. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 98-48 this season, again ranking in the top 15 on NFLPickWatch.com. Anybody who has been following it is way, way up.
Now it has examined the latest NFL odds and spreads, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its Week 11 NFL picks are in.
One of the top Week 11 NFL picks the model loves: The Bears (-2.5) cover at home against the Vikings.
Several trends point strongly toward Chicago in this matchup. The Bears have covered in three straight games, are 4-1 against the spread at home and 5-2 against the spread as favorites. Minnesota is a dismal 28th in the league in rushing, averaging just 91.7 yards.
According to the model, Chicago’s second-ranked rush defense holds Minnesota’s backs to well under 100 yards as the Bears cover in over 55 percent of simulations. That dominant defensive performance also helps the Under (44.5) hit 55 percent of the time.
Another one of the Week 11 NFL predictions from the model: the Cowboys cover as three-point underdogs against the Falcons in Atlanta.
After winning outright as 7.5-point underdogs in Philadelphia last week, the Cowboys travel to Atlanta to face another recent NFC Super Bowl representative. And after the Falcons gave up 176 yards rushing to Nick Chubb and the Browns last Sunday, Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys should have a field day.
According to the model, Elliott will have another monster game, following up his 187-yard performance against the Eagles with another 131 from scrimmage against the Falcons. He’ll also find pay dirt to help fuel a Cowboys cover in 55 percent of simulations. You can also confidently back the Over (48.5), which hits nearly 55 percent of the time.
The model also has made the call on the huge Chiefs vs. Rams “Monday Night Football” showdown, and is projecting that a Super Bowl contender will get a huge scare on the road.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 11? And what Super Bowl contender gets a huge scare? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 49)
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (+4.5, 49.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 48.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-4)
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 49)
Houston Texans at Washington Redskins (+3, 42.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (-1, 52)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5, 46.5)
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, 46.5)
Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-5, 40.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-8, 56)
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 44.5)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 63)
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