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You are going to hear a lot of noise if and when Michigan beats Penn State on Saturday, as expected, that Jim Harbaugh has the right idea about real football. That his scrimmage-based idea of the game, football’s clock turned back to a simpler and tougher time, is the way it should be played and his style will have been vindicated.
I think you’ll also hear scattered calls for James Franklin’s head. That his teams aren’t physical enough, that they don’t play football, rather they play a soft, finesse game that belongs in a soccer stadium or at a track & field meet. And that the game was a referendum on his idea of football.
It will all be gibberish. And I’m going to tell you why:
What you see with Michigan football now is as good as it’s going to get. Under Harbaugh, the Wolverines will never maximize their weaponry on offense and will never cut their quarterback loose. They won’t be able to win games different ways, only their way. I’ve seen this movie before under Bo Schembechler. And Harbaugh is his willing spawn, his twin in style.
And what you’re seeing from Penn State is an unfinished product with a higher ceiling. I don’t know whether Franklin can finish it. But I do know that, if he does, it will be a versatile way to play where the team can both run and pbad efficiently, defend both the air and ground game, and beat you different ways.
The former is the way football has been played. The latter is the way it will be. It’s how championships will be won.
Franklin has already won one. Maybe Harbaugh will get his this year.
I’m fairly well-known around the league for my claim when Harbaugh was hired 3 1/2 years ago that he would never win a Big Ten title, let alone a national championship. My rationale was that with three accomplished yet disparate coaches with different styles inside his own division – Franklin, Urban Meyer and Mark Dantonio – it would be difficult enough for him to simply win the East. I also knew his history as a quirky man to work for and the high turnover within his staffs and doubted he could ever build a consistent machine.
In sum, I believed Harbaugh’s old-school methodology would never be versatile enough to both negotiate the East and then overcome the champion of the West in Indianapolis. I saw Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa and Northwestern and thought, somebody’s always going to get him. Because he’s so predictable that someone will figure him out every year at exactly the wrong time.
Well, here we are with everyone else in the Big Ten quite flawed, enough that Michigan clearly is the favorite to beat whomever is placed in front of them for the rest of the year. Who knew?
Penn State and Ohio State have contracted the same affliction at the same time – a lack of physicality and tackling skills on defense and erratic running games on offense. I can’t see either beating Michigan this year; both teams are bad matchups.
Michigan State is a virtual infirmary with a generational level of injuries striking in one season. “Little Brother” must beat “Big Brother” at his own game and that was not possible this year. The 21-7 result in East Lansing was a non-contest.
Among possible West champions: Iowa is physical enough to hang with Michigan but has a schizoid quarterback who can show like a thoroughbred one week and a claimer the next. Wisconsin has been crippled by injuries where they could least afford it – in the middle of their defense and at quarterback. Upstart Purdue is much better and has offensive speed but is still playing 2-stars in spots where Michigan has 4s and 5s. Northwestern hung with Michigan for three quarters but didn’t have the firepower to finish the job.
Nobody is very good, all at once. Michigan’s best case under Harbaugh is jibing exactly with a historically bad year in the league. It appears I might get my comeuppance.
Fine. My larger badertion remains. Just because Harbaugh’s methods happen to work this year in this league does not at all mean his approach is the right one in the long haul.
Further, I believe if Michigan encounters an advanced and fully equipped offense in the College Football Playoff the likes of which it hasn’t seen in an off-year Big Ten and finds itself in a shootout, it will totally flip out. Michigan cannot beat you in such a game and never will.
Harbaugh is Schembechler reincarnate. If a domino or two unexpectedly falls above Michigan in the CFP rankings and it somehow finds itself at #2 or #3 instead of #4 and suddenly is lined up against, say, Oklahoma? Bad style for the Wolverines to fight.
Down the line in the Big Ten, Ohio State and Penn State clearly are headed toward a more modern template of football that can play against such an opponent. That is a trend that’s not abating.
Now, does Penn State need to recruit better and keep adding talent along both lines? Yes, but I think it will. And when it does, the Lions will be much closer to a complete team than Michigan will. Because Harbaugh will still have a mindset stuck in the 1980s even while coaching 2020s talent.
So, watch what seems to be an inevitable result on Saturday with a calm eye toward the future.
To beat Michigan, you must control the game on ground on both sides. The Nittany Lions can’t do that this year. Neither can the Buckeyes. But both have.
Penn State did last year and will again. And when it does, it will always have the advantage over Michigan. Because the rest of its package will be aimed toward the future of football rather than the past.
EMAIL/TWITTER DAVID JONES: [email protected]
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