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The Chicago Bears dropped from first to last in the NFC North in Week 7. A week later, they launched from the division cellar back to the top spot.
Halfway through the 2018 season, the NFC North is the only division with all four teams within a game of one another. The Bears are back on top, but the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers are both nipping at their heels, and the Lions are only a game back.
The full standings after Week 8 look like this:
- Chicago Bears: 4-3, (0-1 division)
- Minnesota Vikings: 4-3-1, (0-0-1 division)
- Green Bay Packers: 3-3-1, (1-1-1 division)
- Detroit Lions: 3-4, (1-0 division)
The Packers have played a game against each of the others in the division. The other three have only faced the Packers, although the Vikings and Lions will meet in Week 9.
With all four teams hovering around .500, the division is completely up for grabs in the last nine weeks of the year. Who’s going to come out on top? Let’s take a look with their highly scientific chances of winning the division pulled from the top of my head:
Vikings (1 in 3 chance)
The Vikings haven’t been stomping through their schedule the way they probably thought they would. They finished 13-3 a year ago with the No. 1 ranked defense and then added Kirk Cousins in the offseason.
That was enough to make them a Super Bowl favorite and the runaway favorite to win the NFC North.
Then a 1-2-1 start — which included a 27-6 loss to the Josh Allen-led Buffalo Bills — put a damper on that optimism. But other than that bad loss to the Bills, the Vikings have looked just fine. They’re No. 9 in total offense, No. 10 in total defense, and picked up understandable losses to a pair of contenders in the Rams and Saints.
Cousins has lived up to his price tag with 16 touchdowns and just four interceptions — and had it not been for a couple horrible plays by star receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs — the Vikings may have been able to beat the Saints to win a fourth straight game.
There are still two games against the Bears on the horizon, and picking up a tie at Lambeau Field means their tiebreaker with the Packers will be on the line in Week 12 at home. Getting even two wins out of those three games would probably be enough to swing the division in Minnesota’s favor.
Bears (1 in 4 chance)
Yes, the Bears are in first place, but the early loss to the Packers could come back to haunt them. So far in 2018, Chicago has mostly done a good job beating the teams they should beat like the Cardinals, Buccaneers, and Jets.
They’ll be in good shape if that trend continues with games against the Bills and 49ers still on the schedule. But to come out on top, Chicago is going to need to win some of its tougher matchup, and most importantly, the divisional games. That’ll rest heavily on Mitchell Trubisky finding consistency.
While Trubisky tore the Buccaneers, Dolphins, and Jets to shreds with a pbader rating above 100 in each game, he struggled against the Cardinals, Patriots, and Packers with a rating under 70.
The Bears are good at running the ball and stopping the run, and that’s going to give them a real chance at making a run. But holding off the Vikings and Packers will be tough.
Packers (1 in 4 chance)
If there’s one thing about the NFC North that we’ve learned in the last decade, it’s don’t count out a team with Aaron Rodgers at the helm.
Every time he manages to stay healthy, the Packers reach double-digit wins. The 2017 season snapped a streak of eight consecutive trips to the playoffs and it was mostly because Rodgers missed nine games due to injury.
After an injury scare in Week 1, Rodgers is back to smashing opponents with 13 touchdowns and one interception on the year. It’s why the Packers are No. 5 in total offense and the defense isn’t too shabby either at No. 12.
The problem is that since their wild season opening win over the Bears, the Packers have only beat the Bills and 49ers — two of the worst teams in the NFL. They outgained the Lions 521 yards to 264 and still managed to find a way to lose.
It’s also doesn’t inspire much hope when the Packers were sellers instead of buyers at the trade deadline. They parted ways with Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Ty Montgomery, and it’s tough not to think the team has a lesser chance at contending now.
With road games against the Patriots, Seahawks, and Vikings in three of the next four weeks, we’re going to find out really soon if the Packers are a contender or a pretender.
Lions (1 in 6 chance)
Who are the Lions?
The same team that beat the Patriots and Packers also lost to the Jets, 49ers, and Cowboys. So, uh, Detroit is confusing.
It’s No. 17 in points scored and No. 25 in points allowed, but random moments of brilliance make it tough to dismiss the Lions entirely. In the next two weeks, the Lions have road games against the Vikings and Bears. That could vault them to the top of the division or sink them in a hole they can’t climb from.
But who knows which version of the Lions will show up. The bad news is that they appear to be a team that’s below average at just about everything, especially stopping the run. The good news is that Kerryon Johnson is the first Lions running back in years who is capable of 100-yard games.
Like the Packers, they also sent away talent at the trade deadline — shipping Golden Tate off to the Eagles.
The win over the Packers gives them a chance at making noise, but the Lions are definitely the long shot in the division.
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