Kawhi Leonard Trade: Winners and losers

After nine months of updates on injuries, unexplained absences and rampant speculation, Kawhi Leonard was finally traded. The Raptors send DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl and a protected first-round pick (1-20) to San Antonio in exchange for Leonard and Danny Green. The deal was rumored for nearly two weeks, but talks escalated Tuesday, and Wednesday morning was official.

There are a number of workout effects to sort out now, so we will break down by looking at the biggest winners and losers in the business.

Winner: The Raptors

There will be many jokes about next July, when Toronto will try to convince Kawhi to choose freezing winters and the Canadian market to Southern California and the biggest stage of basketball. On this front, we have already heard sources say "Kawhi Leonard has no desire to play in Toronto." There may also be jokes about the Raptors eventually landing someone to keep LeBron, but only after LeBron leaves East. And speaking of years of torment, there is also the possibility of Kawhi dominating this year, Toronto making the final, and LeBron recruiting him in LA next summer, breaking the heart of Toronto one last time.

Jokes and worst-case scenarios aside, the Raptors are victorious anyway. The team they brought back had a ceiling that had become clear in recent seasons. Maybe you think that all the problems would have been solved with LeBron in the West, but they were still entering next season several steps behind the Celtics, with a kernel that has always been disappointing in the playoffs. At some point, it makes sense to play.

All along, the problem with Kyle Lowry or DeRozan trading was that no one in the league would offer comparable value to players who guaranteed the Raptors a baseline of 50 wins each season. Lowry and DeRozan were great players together in the East, but there was always a limit to what other teams could imagine for themselves in a different situation. So, what's the point in the All-Stars bonafide trade if you come back, for example, Harrison Barnes? Or Andrew Wiggins? Or Luol Deng and B-list Lakers prospects? Or a choice in the middle of the first round? Most of the Raptors rumors we've heard over the years have been limited back-to-back solutions that would have left Toronto trapped in the middle of the league. Kawhi is different.

Kawhi, though he is in good health, gives the Raptors a MVP candidate who is probably the most dominant player in the franchise. Kawhi's health makes the Raptors the second best team in the East. Beside Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, he makes their defense monstrous. And it makes the next 12 months exponentially more interesting and exciting for Toronto than in recent years. There are obvious risks that we will mention the free agency next July, Kawhi 's health, the state of mind of Kawhi, Uncle Dennis, etc., but that was logical largely because inaction was his own choice for Toronto. d already tried. Now the "culture change" is becoming real.

If Kawhi goes to Toronto and thrives and stays, this bet is huge. While going to Toronto before leaving next summer, the next season is a bridge to a new era in which the Raptors will look for solutions beyond DeRozan and Lowry. Either way, it feels like a healthy step.

Loser: The Spurs

Look, there is a lot to say about everything that has happened in San Antonio in the last 12 months . Most of these events took place in a way that Spurs fans and even the Spurs' management could never have predicted or prepared. Now that Kawhi is really gone, I'm delighted to see how far the anecdotes from last season can get stranger. (Will we be upstairs "sequestered in New York hiding members of the Spurs front in a separate part of the building?" )

A takeaway base meanwhile: This range hurts my head 19659013] The Spurs have made a zigger art while the rest of the league zags, but the man I do not know.But a midfield offensive with LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan is going to be a real journey

San Antonio can win something with almost 50 games with this alignment – bet it always – but it may not be pretty, and it's not Is certainly not as healthy as, say, rebuilding around Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma and Josh Hart.On the other hand: San Antonio has never had any leverage with the Lakers, the front Office refused the Celtics' offers during the season, and at this point in the summer, the return of any kind of star is probably the best that the Spurs could have

There will be people claiming to have been wet by Masai Ujiri, but I can not really blame them for bringing back 50 cents on the dollar. The Spurs lost this battle months ago, and if they made mistakes in this process, the biggest mistake was not to admit defeat earlier. In July, Gregg Popovich and RC Buford exchanged a player who: skipped an entire season, alienated everyone in the building, made commercial demands through the back channels, may not be 100% healthy (at least in the eyes future trading partners), and has clearly plans to leave for Los Angeles next summer. The leverage of the Spurs has not only been halved, it has been halved four times in the last six months. Of course, they lost that trade in the end. The most interesting question is when and why it all started spiraling.

Winner: Masai Ujiri

On the one hand, Ujiri oversaw the most successful part of the history of the Raptors franchise, and he built a culture of Durable excellence that about 20 teams around the NBA would exchange places with in a heartbeat. So, Masai is bulletproof. He has a job for life. But even so, the end of last season left everyone looking bad, and Masai was no exception. His list was stuck in mediocrity, the case of Serge Ibaka was a disaster, the dismissal of Dwane Casey was obviously not a meaningful solution, and the next steps were unclear.

Now he has found a way forward. The Raptors should be very good next season, and if they are not, the story will talk about Kawhi, not the general manager. From there, either by keeping Kawhi or by losing him next summer, this team will have a lot more clarity on what they will build in 2019 and the 2020s. Masai has been able to keep the projects in the long run Toronto favorites Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, and the Raptors will enter next year with more buzz than they have had in years. Nobody talks about the agreement of Ibaka, and nobody asks what is the plan.

Siakam and Anunoby can never be better than the fourth or fifth best players of a good team, but in the abstract, keeping them is a big win. And while this bet can go in many different directions, right now, the Masai Mystic is back.

Winner: Gregg Popovich

The Popovich side of this agreement is much more difficult to read. In a way, I'm sure the break with Kawhi will bother Popovich for years to come, and it's a bittersweet coda at one of the most successful careers that the NBA never seen. But aside from this sad reality, it's fair to say that Pop will retire in the next few years, and Wednesday's trade adds a glimmer of hope to the twilight.

There is a version of this story where the Spurs of the following year would have thrown himself and Pop would spend his last season watching Dejounte Murray and Davis Bertans being punched every night at 30 hours. Instead, we'll see Pop using DeRozan and Aldridge to stubbornly reverse every lesson of the modern NBA, exceed the expectations of the league, thrive without the superstar who betrayed his team, and find a way to succeed again. For someone as competitive as Popovich, it's a lot more fun than playing the last years of his career and playing for 2023. And for a small market team like San Antonio, rebuilding s & # 39; 39, accompanies a world of questions without clear answers. There is nothing wrong with waiting a few years before taking this route.

Loser: DeMar DeRozan

The DeRozan side of this case was not quite "Celtics and Isaiah" cold-hearted levels, but that's 39 is near. DeRozan bought everything Toronto had been trying to do in recent seasons. He improved his game year after year. He openly loved Toronto after a decade when Chris Bosh and Vince Carter left. He had all the intangibles that a team would want in a franchise player.

In the end, nothing important. DeRozan was not good enough to be the best player of a title contender, his attack repeatedly collapsed in key moments during the recent playoffs, and at one point in the next two years, it will be due for a raise that the Raptors (clearly) were not pleased with the offer.

It makes sense that it is the only one to be traded, but it is also obviously a disappointment. If DeRozan can take some comfort, it is that he joins an organization that has always made sure that good players look good while finding ways to hide their flaws. Spurs DeRozan could be even better than Raptors DeRozan. Likewise, DeMar basically joins Team Spite – see the section above – and it will be fun to see Pop and LaMarcus and DeMar doing everything they can to win 50 games just to annoy everyone who's expecting it. They disappear after Kawhi.

Winner: Dejounte Murray Believers

Spurs fans must rank the championship DVDs and watch those highlights of the summer league of Seattle. If you believe in the advantage of Dejounte Murray – I do it! – the long-term future in San Antonio is not completely hopeless. Whatever the case may be, Murray will have more chances than ever to prove himself next season and give Spurs fans a reason to think of the 2020s without having a collapse.

TBD: The Sixers

The offseason of the Sixers will not be defined by errors, so it's something. In the wake of the Colangelo disaster, Philly has been very careful to maintain its flexibility over the next few years, refusing to pay too much for any kind of disappointing solutions. The Sixers missed LeBron and Paul George, so they will instead pick him up with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons and another year of short term solutions, preserving the space for the star clbad of the team. ;next summer. It could be the right call. But as Toronto has proven in recent seasons, inaction comes with its drawbacks.

Kawie Leonard, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, Jimmy Butler, Klay Thompson, Al Horford and Khris. Middleton, Kemba Walker, Marc Gasol, DeMarcus Cousins, DeAndre Jordan and Kevin Love – there are only a few that count as realistic Sixers targets. And beyond next summer, the extensions will be due to Ben Simmons and Dario Saric, and the money will be tight. Given the tight window to add pieces and the speed with which Embiid and Simmons became All-NBA talents that could have a realistic final with a little more help, the game on Kawhi would have had a lot of meaning. Maybe the Spurs were not interested in Fultz, Covington and Dario. Maybe Kawhi's medical history has scared Philly. Maybe Brett Brown's connections to San Antonio gave him an extra insight into how crazy things were last season.

Whatever it was, there was no decision from Sixers Kawhi that did not involve huge risks. Trader for him meant betting on a one year rental that may not be in good health. On the other hand, if Kawhi shows up in Toronto and looks 100% healthy, we'll be back this summer and we'll wonder why Philly has not pushed harder for it to work. .

Winner: The Dignity of the East

Hey, now! Move Kawhi from San Antonio to Toronto, and suddenly the Eastern Conference does not seem as desperate as it was 24 hours ago. The Eastern talent pool is still ridiculously inferior to anything that happens in the West, but after losing LeBron and watching a star game that could include eight different Celtics, Kawhi helps It's to regain some dignity.

Loser: The Dreamers of the West

The Western Conference playoff race is lethal year after year, and next season will not make exception. With LeBron in LA, the Lakers can be safely placed somewhere in the top eight. Then there are the Nuggets, Grizzlies, Mavericks and Clippers who are running as lottery participants last season and planning to do a playoff race next year. It's already an unbelievably tight crunch, and at the very least, these potential playoff teams could console themselves this summer knowing that the Spurs would probably be royally screwed up in any Kawhi swap and fall off. of the series race.

Now it's not so clear. Team Spite in San Antonio can not enter next season with a shot on a title, but by bringing DeRozan should give them enough firepower to stay as competitive as anyone else in the middle of the conference. This development is good news for Spurs and entertaining news for basketball fans. And while teams like the Bulls and Hornets are not crazy about the playoffs, it reminds us that life in the West is deeply unfair.

TBD: The Lakers

There are a few different ways to read this for the Lakers. On the one hand, Pelinka and Magic never blinked in the days before the free agency when the Spurs were moving heaven and earth to create a bidding war for Kawhi. It was smart. They will keep Brandon Ingram, a potential All-Star who is still 21, and they still have a chance to sign Kawhi next summer. Also: rather than eviscerate their team for a player who has missed most of the season, Magic, Pelinka and LeBron will have a year to watch it in Toronto to badess exactly how good Leonard is, and how s 39 it makes sense as long … In contrast, even though the Lakers are in better shape than the Sixers (since they are already favorites to sign Kawhi next summer), their inaction still big. comes with many of the same questions. If Kawhi is 100%, he could have helped LeBron fight at the top of the West this season. If Kawhi thrives in Toronto and decides to stay next summer, it takes away a potential MVP candidate from the team in 2019, and suddenly the Lakers could find themselves talking about B + options around LeBron . Similarly, there is always the possibility that a team like the Clippers could get into the mix with either a monster offer at the trade deadline or an offer next summer. Each of these scenarios is frustrating for L.A., the latter being particularly disconcerting.

The Lakers accepted these drawbacks and chose to bet upward their young players and the potential to steal Kawhi anyway. The angle "Anything can happen now that Paul George stayed at OKC" is probably overestimated at this point, most players who promise to leave will leave, but there are still serious risks to doing nothing.

Winner and loser: Spurs culture

The mystique surrounding the Spurs was always a bit misleading. It is true that San Antonio has been a successful franchise playing smarter, using innovative scouting, developing its players in ways that other teams can not, and fostering a culture among its coaches and players that does not. Exists nowhere else. sports. This culture was always real and it helped them to be competitive in a tangible way. But in the center of everything the Spurs did well, there were always superstars. In this way, the Spurs were never as distinct as they seemed.

Like any other great team, San Antonio's success depended on Hall of Fame players and their willingness to buy what the franchise was selling. Last year Kawhi stressed this point. The minute he stepped out of the gate, the Spurs became deadly again. No amount of reconnaissance magic or ball movement could fill the void that he left behind. Last season was the first time in 20 years that San Antonio has fallen 50 wins.

Of course, if Kawhi has unintentionally highlighted the boundaries of the Spurs' culture, the way this race has ended also underscores how remarkable it was. It's not normal for superstars to take paychuks year after year, remain loyal to a tiny Texas market, play for each other, evolve stylistically year-to-year, and play for a domineering coach as well. than Popovich. It worked in San Antonio because the people at the center of the story were once-in-a-generation players, but also personalities that the NBA had never seen before and that she n & # 39; 39 has not really seen since. Kawhi seemed to adapt to this mold until he did not do it. Continuing, it's one more reason to be amazed by the careers of guys like Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and all they've built over the past 20 years.

And as for Kawhi …

To be determined: Kawhi Leonard

The last time that he played a full season in health he had strong arguments in favor of MVP and he was unquestionably one of the top five players alive. Go back and watch him disembowel the Grizzlies in the playoffs. He was amazing. If he's 100%, he's probably the most talented player to be traded since Kevin Garnett. But he might not be in good health, he may not want to play in Toronto, and even though everyone will spend the next 12 months hiring him at the Lakers, we are not even sure that 39, he is interested in this option. So how big can Kawhi be? To what extent were injury problems real? Where does this story come from here? How should the Raptors be excited?

We will all discover together.