Michigan football vs. Penn State: Scouting report, prediction

More: Shea Patterson told Don Brown during MSU game: Get me the ball back

Injury report

Michigan 

Out: P Brad Robbins, DB Benjamin St-Juste, DE Luiji Vilain. Questionable: DE Rashan Gary, WR Tarik Black, OT Juwann Bushell-Beatty.

Penn State

Out: RB Mark Allen. Questionable: RB Ricky Slade, TE Pat Freiermuth, DT Ellison Jordan, OL Rasheed Walker. Probable: QB Trace McSorley.

Scouting report

When Michigan has the ball: By Jim Harbaugh’s estimation, Penn State will be the best defensive line the Wolverines have played this year. That’s high praise considering the lines of both Notre Dame and Michigan State. And while the Nittany Lions have run-game issues, they’re the best pbad-rushing group in the Big Ten. Penn State leads the conference in sacks and tackles-for-loss and its defensive front leads the charge. Ends Yetur Gross-Mattos and Shareef Miller have combined for 10 sacks and 21 TFLs. End Shaka Toney has five sacks, and defensive tackle Robert Windsor has been active. Penn State attacks the pocket, and we’ve barely seen the potential of star freshman linebacker Micach Parsons, who now leads the team with 43 tackles. The front is ferocious. But the defense as a whole is far from perfect. The Nittany Lions have given up 424 yards per game in Big Ten play. The linebackers can be inconsistent, the Nittany Lions can be attacked up the middle with tight ends and if you protect your quarterback, good things can happen. 

When Penn State has the ball: Trace McSorley has done a bit of everything for PSU this year, though it may be taking a physical toll. The quarterback missed part of a win vs. Iowa last week and has been mum about his knee injury this week. He finished up vs. the Hawkeyes, so it seems he’s likely to play. When McSorley’s pressured with discipline in the rush lanes, this offense becomes limited. Miles Sanders is an electric running back, but he’s not at the level of Saquon Barkley last season. And Penn State doesn’t have dominant linemen such as Mike Geisicki and DaeSean Hamilton any longer. It’s all on McSorley. In Big Ten play, he has averaged 17 rushes and 29 pbades a game. His completion percentage has dipped to 52 percent and he’s getting hit a lot. The run-pbad option is always a threat, though, and Sanders doesn’t need much room to get big yards. But if you keep McSorley inside and in front, and get a push up the middle, the offense slows down quite a bit. If he’s breaking the pocket and moving, Penn State’s dangerous. Wide receiver K.J. Hamler (Orchard Lake St. Mary’s) is dynamic in space — especially with quick routes. 

Know the foe

Heavy load

McSorley has come a long way in three years and is now one of the toughest quarterbacks in the Big Ten. He’s always capable of big plays with his arms and his legs. He no longer has the stable of weapons he had a year ago, but McSorley has made more plays with his legs this season than before. The offense misses Joe Moorhead’s creative play calling. Stop McSorley, stop Penn State. 

Medium shots

Penn State doesn’t give up many huge plays, but it does give up plenty of chunks. PSU has allowed 129 plays of 10 yards or more this season, third-worst in the Big Ten. There have only been 11 plays of 30 yards or more, though, which is third-best. Basically, you can move down the field methodically if you can avoid the pbad rush. PSU’s TFL yardage averages nearly 30 yards a game vs. Big Ten teams, but the defense is still allowing more than 400 yards a game in Big Ten play. The linebackers are suspect, the middle of the field is open for business and tackling can be an issue. 

RPO

Penn State’s offense can still hit big gashes with its run-pbad option game, as McSorley is very comfortable with the concept after running it heavily for three years. Moorhead, the team’s former OC, is gone. But current OC Ricky Rahne worked under him. Michigan was all out of whack vs. Penn State last year because of PSU’s athleticism, but they were also out-schemed. Don Brown has spent a year preparing for this rematch and Saturday will be a unique test for Michigan’s defense. 

Two cents

Keep the reads

If Michigan can keep Penn State’s aggressive front having to read Shea Patterson and Karan Higdon on the edge, the Wolverines could be in business with the read-option for a third straight week. Indiana had some success with this against Penn State, as the Nittany Lions’ gap discipline can give way to over-aggressiveness up front. Allowing Patterson to toss in some RPO’s of his own with tight end looks over the middle would also help. If you can keep Penn State’s back seven moving and guessing, you’ll find a lot of room against this defense. 

Tackle test

Michigan’s offensive line proved it can move people on the ground two weeks ago against the country’s top-ranked rush defense. If the tackles can keep Penn State’s defensive ends under control, then Michigan may as well claim ownership to one of the league’s best offensive lines. This is a big test, make no mistake. Moving Patterson to help Jon Runyan and Bushell-Beatty (if he’s healthy) will help. Michigan’s offensive diversity should help. But if they hold up in this one? There will be no more questions. 

Prediction

Michigan was rolling before its bye, but there could be some rust after a week off. Penn State’s capable of starting fast, but if Michigan’s defense brings its familiar focus, the Wolverines should have a golden opportunity to lead early and make Penn State chase them. The Wolverines are at home, they’re reasonably healthy and they’re confident. U-M is diverse enough to bother Penn State, but the reverse isn’t true for the Nittany Lions. 

Pick: Michigan 28, Penn State 14