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If the competitive landscape of the NBA has determined the tilt of the North American continent, you may have noticed a little more than a lean west Monday morning. If you have not heard, LeBron James has announced his departure for Los Angeles, where he will attempt to resurrect the Lakers dynasty. Just like that, with a press release, the hierarchy of an entire league has been reversed.
Our first July list marks the mid-season of the season.
While teams look at trades for veterans like Cole Hamels, this year's deadline could unfold as the market of last winter.
Who is the best mid-baseball player? In addition, the two weak points of the AL and remember an arbitration gaffe for the ages.
2 Related
There is simply no equivalent of baseball. If Mike Trout was suddenly released from his Los Angeles Angels contract and decided that he wanted to play for the Baltimore Orioles, the O's would be better and the Angels would be worse. But the effect would be fractional compared to James's move. That's the nature of the sport
Let's keep that in mind as we look to over-badyze the next MLB commercial season. With the deadline for non-waiver transactions looming at the end of this month, there could be big names moving. The biggest jackpot is the short-handed Manny Machado of Baltimore, who can become a free agent after the season. With the Orioles on pace to win 47 games (no, really), this seems like a kid game that Machado will play for another team in a month. A trade could fall anytime.
Machado is an elite player who puts in place a level of production quite in line with his pre-season forecast. Nevertheless, the team that ends with him will not be sure of anything. While at that time, the Lakers appeared to be a candidate for the NBA playoffs, and today they are considered safe playoff players and maybe even a big gamble. than others. In an effort to put some numbers on this, I decided to inject his commercial bid into Stock Watch this month. In addition to the usual metrics, each team is listed with its "Machado Bump". That is to say, how much would the acquisition of the Orioles' star striker increase each team's victory predictions? How would this affect their chances of winning everything?
To calculate this, I "traded" Machado to each team in the major leagues, one at a time. For each club, I integrated it into his depth chart, moving other pieces as needed. The hypothesis in terms of commercial return was that Baltimore would pick up the prospects of the minor league that did not impact the depth chart of the league. This is not perfectly realistic. For example, a Cubs-Orioles exchange involving Machado would also likely include the Chicago short-stop, Addison Russell. Why else would Baltimore do it?
Rather than guessing the exact trading package that each team might abandon, it took more consistency to simply introduce Machado into each team's list, and Baltimore's list. After "exchanging" Machado with each team, I did 10,000 simulations of the season calendar with the reconfigured alignments, which gave me the revised figures for the probability of victory and the probability of title .
not breaking the ground. The increase in earnings forecasts depends on the quality of the uprooted players, as well as the remaining schedule that each team faces. However, the championship predictions have a lot to do with how the potential playoff confrontations accumulate, which makes this exercise particularly interesting. In the American League, the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox are so tightly grouped that another elite acquisition could be a tipping point among them. The same could be true for a whole group of National League teams. This is played in the simulations.
As usual for Stock Watch for this time of year, the teams are grouped into three categories: Buyers, Holders and Sellers. In each of these groups, the teams are controlled by the Manny Bump at his title chances, with ties broken by the bump in the victory forecast. And yes, each team gets a Manny Bump. There is not a team in the majors who would not be improved by his presence.
Buyers
Yankees of New York
Current forecast in progress: 103.9 (Change of June: +1.3)
Probability of the current playoff: 95.6% (up 5.6%)
Total Probability of Last Play: 16.8%
Manny Bump: 2.10% Probability of Title | 3.4 victories (12th)
The Yankees could mobilize their resources elsewhere, as the starting rotation looks like the key zone for the Bombers to target this month.
The hump noted here indicates how much could be at stake for Brian Cashman and his underlings. These marginal victories do not necessarily come from Machado, of course. Its impact in the simulations is mainly due to the moderate forecast of the rest of the season for young New Yorkers – Greg Bird, Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar. However, if these guys continue to do what they've done, Cashman can feel safe by looking for an impact arm such as JA Happ, Michael Fulmer or Chris Archer
Houston Astros
Current forecast: 106.7 (June change: +5.1)
Actual release decision: ] 97.4% (up 7.5%)
] Current Championship of Probability: 27.0%
Manny Bump: 1.90% title probability | 2.3 wins (28th)
As with the Yankees, and many of these teams, the marginal upgrade Machado provides to the Astros might be more likely elsewhere. In the case of Houston, it would be the back of the pen. However, it is interesting to scramble Houston's depth chart to accommodate Machado. In the end, I ended up moving Alex Bregman to the left field, leaving Machado to play alongside Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve in the infield. This is not a bad group
Realistically, the Astros will target relegators like Zach Britton, Brad Hand and Raisel Iglesias
Chicago Cubs
Current victorious prediction: 91.2 (Variation from June: -4.2)
Probability of the oft playoff: 71.7% (Descending 7.9%)
Probable Championship of Presence: 12.9 %
Manny Bump: 1.10% Probability of Title | 1.9 wins (29th)
The rumor Machado-aux-Cubs has been a persistent rumor all season, with one element of this being his long-standing friendship with center Albert Alberto Jr. simulations, I did not "trade" Russell against Baltimore, but I minimized his presence on the depth map of the Cubs, so it's a decisive blow what might an acquisition of Machado look like . With Chicago rich in talent position, the victory upgrade is marginal, but the effect on the fortunes of the Chicago playoffs is worth considering.
Atlanta Braves
: +1.0)
Current line probability: 62.0% (up 11%)
Current Championship Probability : 1.9%
Manny Bump: 0.84% Probability of Title | 4.6 victories (second)
My badumption in these scenarios is that the Machado team would be free to use it at the stop-court or third base if necessary, which would n.º. may not be the way Machado badesses the situation. But the tight turn in Atlanta and Johan Camargo's move into a utilitarian role had a surprising effect on the Braves' prediction of victory. Yet another third base option like Mike Moustakas or Adrian Beltre could make more sense for Atlanta
Arizona Diamondbacks
Current earnings forecast: 89.5 ( Change of June: +7.2)
Probability of current playoffs: 65.8% (up 35.5%)
Overall Championship Probability: 2.8%
] Manny Bump: 0.70% Probability of Title | 3.3 wins (13th)
The Diamondbacks seem to have a huge need in the middle of the infield, a goal that Machado would do more than fill. It boosts Arizona's forecast, even though I expected it frankly more. However, it seems that even the considerable upgrade that it provides would not be enough to bridge the gap in basic talent between Arizona and the other playoff clubs.
Cleveland Indians
93.0 (variation from June: +2.6)
Probability of training currently in progress: 92.4% (up 13.9 %)
Current Championship of Probability: 5.9%
Manny Bump: 0.64% Probability of Title | 2.4 wins (27th)
Cleveland needs relief in the worst way, but Machado makes a lot of sense for that in the void. The Indians ranked in the last 10 by bWAR at the second base and three outfield points. The question of second base is the most relevant here, as Machado would beat Jose Ramirez at the keystone, giving the Indians a level of Astros star in the infield. Yet, Machado can only plug one hole, and even with it, Cleveland does not compare to Houston, Boston or New York.
Milwaukee Brewers
Best Current Winning Heading: 92.3 (Change from June: +1.3)
Probability of the current playoff: 76.3% (up 11.9%)
Total Championship Probability: 3.0%
Manny Bump: 0.34% Probability of Title | 3.4 wins (10th)
The Brewers odds do not fit perfectly with their predictions of victories because of a persistent mediocre note of their true talent. While their chances of playing in October look good, the system still sees them as outsiders against the Cubs, Nationals or Dodgers.
Machado, who could play at the shortstop in Milwaukee, narrows this gap. However, another addition, perhaps to the rotation, would probably be needed to strengthen the prospects on paper. Jed Lowrie, Whit Merrifield and the former Brewer Gennett Scooter, but none of these athletes play short […]
Seattle Mariners
Current Achievement: 92.6 (Change since June: +3.0)
Probability of current championships: 64.5% (up 13.5%)
Overall probability of champions: 2.0%
Manny Bump: 0.18% Probability of Title | 2.5 victories (24th)
The accommodation of Machado would not be easy for Seattle, although the Mariners obviously make it work. This would be particularly complicated when Robinson Cano returns. However, Machado would help offset Cano's absence in the playoffs, when Cano will be ineligible because of his PED suspension.
Mariners intrigue because they clearly have a talent deficit compared to AL animals, but they are deep. , well balanced team without flagrant holes. They need a creative general manager to improve the list in a non-disruptive way. Fortunately, in Jerry DiPoto, that's exactly what Seattle
Boston Red Sox
Current race won: 102.5 (June Change: +0.2)
Probability of playoff: 94.3% (up 4%)
Current Championship of Probability: 11.4%
Manny Bump: 0.10% probability of title | 2.4 wins (26th)
Imagine Machado hitting angry circuits against the Red Sox instead of opposing them. On one side, the Red Sox are planning to go better in all infield points, where they are far from having succeeded despite the team 's impressive start. However, the projection of a solid Dustin Pedroia is tenuous at best. Still, the area I see ripe for an upgrade in Boston is behind the plate, with J.T. of Miami. Realmuto being a fantastic fit. But Machado is good too
Los Angeles Dodgers
Current winning race: 87.7 (June change: +1.0)
Probable playoffs: 57.1% (up 3.5%)
Current Championship of Probability: 7.8%
Manny Bump: 1.50% Probability of Title | 2.4 wins (25th)
Yes, the continuous sleep of the Dodgers finally dropped them into the Holders clbad. When you look at the Cubs' metrics above, and what's here, a Machado-Chicago exchange looks like a worse scenario for the Dodgers. Los Angeles could certainly use Machado just at first glance, not only because of the value upgrade that he offers, but also because of his style.
The Dodgers have a lot of similar hitters up and down the list. big picture but too pbadive during certain periods. Machado would be a shock in the middle of all this. Beyond this possibility, LA must improve its depth over the next few weeks
Phillies of Philadelphia
Current Winning Prediction: 86.2 (June Change: +0.3) [19659007] Match probability: 44.4% (up 3.8%)
Probability from the current championship: 0.4%
Manny Bump: 0.44 % title Probability | 3.8 victories (fourth)
The Phillies get a huge Machado win, even if the chances of the title are still low compared to the forecasts of my system. There is some regression at the scale of the list – crucial for calculating the true level of talent – that contributes to this. However, Philadelphia significantly underperformed on the left side of the infield. Most of the players are young – Maikel Franco, J.P. Crawford, Scott Kingery – so you do not know when, or if, they could put it together. It really depends on the amount of lead stocks that the Phillies are willing to move to a rental player that they could sign after the season.
Washington Nationals
Current Winning Race: ] 86.4 (June Exchange: -4.5)
Open Line Probability: 48.9% (Down 17.2 %)
Overall probability of champions: 4.5%
Manny Bump: 0.40% Title probability | 3.8 victories (fifth)
The Nationals need an upgrade, which is why they are connected to Realmuto since the spring training. Getting Machado in the Washington lineup requires a bit of brewing, since the biggest need is at the first goal. In the end, I plugged Machado to the stop-court and turned Trea Turner into a super-utility player who still has a daily level of play.
Whatever it is , the Nationals do not think to be on Machado. What they really need is a consistent fifth start and a regression – in a good way – on the part of Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy and Ryan Zimmerman.
Louis Cardinals
Race won: 83.8 (variation from June: -3.1)
probability of the current match: 33.3% ( down 12.5%)
Current Championship Probability: 1.3%
Manny Bump: 0.38% Probability of Title | 2.6 wins (23rd)
In terms of bottom-line value, Machado does not improve cardinals as much as you might think. On the one hand, it could prompt Mike Matheny to make some interesting choices, even more than St. Louis is already doing.
However, you imagine that Machado could push Jedd Gyorko into second place, possibly with Matt Carpenter while Machado and Paul DeJong hold the left side of the infield. Then Carpenter could also share his time with José Martinez while Kolten Wong serves as a glove on the bench. (Although, surely, the acquisition of Machado would mean that others are withdrawn.)
It's a bit of a mix, but, frankly, the Cardinals need a shake. St. Louis is one of the most mediocre clubs in the major leagues
San Francisco Giants
Current Forecast: 80.8 (June Change: 0.9)
Current popularity probability: 19.1% (2.5% Descent)
Overall Championship Probability: 0.2%
Manny Bump: 0.30% Vocation of Probability | 4.9 wins (first)
The big problem of the Giants is intriguing, especially if we consider the proximity of San Francisco in the NL West race. Obviously, trading Machado would wipe out the giants' plan to stay below the tax threshold, and anyway, it's doubtful that they could put up a package to win Machado's sweepstake. So, really, it's just an intellectual exercise that involved moving Evan Longoria to the outside field. Maybe they should move Machado to the outside field; Even with Longoria on the disabled list, the San Francisco infield has been off lately.
Los Angeles Angels
Best Winning Morning: 81.9 (June Change: -5.0)
Probability of the current playoff: 10.7% (Down 26.7%)
Total Championship Probability: 0.7%
Manny Bump: 0.40% Probability of Title | 3.4 wins (11th)
Take note of the current odds of the Angels playoffs. The fall threshold in the Sellers category is less than 10%. The angels are almost there. Defeating Machado would be a desperate move, but with Zack Cozart doing for the season and Shohei Ohtani's mound availability in the air, maybe these are desperate times for the Angels.
Oakland Athletics
Watch Current Victory: 85.6 (June Change: +3.3)
Probability of the current playoff: 21.5% (Top 2.4%)
Current Championship of Probability: 0.1%
Manny Bump: 0.18% Title Probability | 2.7 victories (21st)
The A have moved to 10th place in my power clbadification this week. These evaluations are what feeds the simulations. Oakland is a team to watch for, especially since she has been on the sidelines of the playoff race despite the number of injuries and even though, with the exception of Lowrie, there is no reason There was no individual offside performance. [19659007] Machado might be beyond their views, but I would like to see Billy Beane add to this mix on the deadline. There is nothing in my metrics that separates Oakland from Seattle beyond the Mariners' top start of the season.
Sellers
Minnesota Twins
Current Winning Race: 76.9 (Change of June: -1.6)
Probability of the current playoff: 8.8 % (11% Descent)
Overall Probability of Champions: 0.7%
Manny Bump: 0.20% Probability of Title | 2.8 wins (19th)
From now on, the Machado bump is listed for entertainment purposes only. Instead, we will focus on the strengths of these salespeople who could help someone else 's cause in the playoffs.
The Twins are newcomers to the Sellers clbad, which they did not intend to be. Cleveland is getting bigger and bigger, and the one between the Twins and the top of wild-card rankings is even wider, it's getting closer to shooting time.
Second baseman Brian Dozier is the best first-half stellar candidate that does not help his commercial value. On the other hand, there is a clbadic sell-high opportunity when it comes to Eduardo Escobar, a player scheduled for 0.3 WAR that is running for 3.9. Raises Ryan Pressly
Colorado Rockies
Current Victory Decisions: 77.7 (June Change: -0.4)
Current Playoff Probability: ] 9.6% (Down 6.1%)
Overall probability of champions: 0.2%
Manny Bump: 0.16% Vocation of probability | 2.7 victories (22nd)
The Rockies have probably not thrown the sponge, but it is not very beautiful. The offensive has been better lately, but the starting shots that supported Colorado early in the season are gone. Jon Gray, the starter of the opening day, was recently sent to the minor leagues. The turnaround is so shocking that I did not include Colorado players in my ranking of commercial candidates by the deadline.
The obvious candidates are the guys with expiring contracts. Second baseman DJ LeMahieu is a mainstay, but the Rockies faced Brendan Rodgers in Triple A. Another player who could leave is the reliever Adam Ottavino
Really, however, it seems more likely that the Rockies are trying to keep things together and then try to get ready for next year to convince Nolan Arenado that it's the place he wants to be on the long run
Pittsburgh Pirates
Current Forecast: 76.8 (June Change: -1.0)
Probability of current rankings: 8.1% (Low 4%)
Overall probability of champions: 0.2%
Manny Bump: 0.12% Probability Vocation | 3.3 wins (14th)
In the end, the fall of the Pirates after a good start to the season is probably for the better. The front office can now proceed with clarity. There are several players on the Pittsburgh lineup who could make a good comeback and have a tangible effect on the pennant races.
This group begins with receiver Francisco Cervelli, who enjoys a career season. He is the best candidate among wrestlers after Realmuto. Pittsburgh could also look to sell high on Corey Dickerson, as they landed for a song before the season. There are others, including Starling Marte, Felipe Vazquez, Ivan Nova, Jordy Mercer, and Sean Rodriguez.
If Neal Huntington wants to burst a deadline, the opportunity is certainly there. The question is whether the will is there to move more familiar names as a result of a backlash that has extended in the season.
Toronto Blue Jays
Current forecast: 78.9 (Change from June: 3.2)
Probability of the current playoff: 4.7% (Decimated 0.5% )
Overall probability of champions: 0.0%
Manny Bump: 0.08% Probability of Title | 3.5 wins (ninth)
What the Jays need, it's a better chance for their collective health, especially with respect to third-baseman player Josh Donaldson. Donaldson was supposed to be up there with Machado as an elite candidate, but he can not stay healthy. If Donaldson can come back and show some of his expected production, then Toronto can offer him as an alternative to a team looking at Machado who might not want to meet the Baltimore asking price. (All that could be.) Toronto is also the team to watch when it comes to pitching pitchers, with Happ joined by Marco Estrada as alluring targets.
Tampa Bay Rays
81.4 (Change from June: 2.7)
Probability of the current playoff: 8.9% (2% Descent) [19659007] Overall probability of champions: 0.1%
Manny Bump: 0.06% probability of title | 3.1 wins (17th)
The Rays have been one of the most prominent teams in baseball, with its unconventional pitch personal setup leading to one of the best prevention units directed in recent weeks. Well, with Blake Snell. But you know that the shelves will also be willing to trade marginal short-term losses against longer-term gains. Archer is an eternal name on the rumor, but Matt Duffy, Wilson Ramos, Adeiny Hechavarria, Carlos Gomez and Sergio Romo are all veterans that the spokes could swing.
New York Mets
Victory Ranking: 70.3 (Variation from June: -7.2)
Overall playoff chance: 1.5% (High 9.7%)
Current Championship of Probability: 0.0%
Manny Bump: 0.02% Probability on Title | 3.1 victories (16th)
If the Mets decided to blow it up, no team could offer more hard-hitting players – health being badured, of course. This will probably not happen, but the list of possibilities is dizzying. It starts with Jacob deGrom, which the Mets will probably keep but which could also bring back a monster back. Also on the list of possibilities: Noah Syndergaard, Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Céspedes, Zack Wheeler, Jeurys Familia, Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce.
Cincinnati Reds
Current Winning Race: 72.3 (Change from June: +6.5)
Probability of Current Championships: 2.1% (Top of 1.5%)
Current Championship of Probability: 0.0%
Manny Bump: 0.02% Probability of Title | 2.8 wins (20th)
Suffice it to say that it's a key moment in the career of the Reds general manager, Dick Williams. On paper, it seemed like the Reds could step forward this season if some of the young pitchers from Cincinnati were turning the corner. Instead, the Red Devils started 3-18 and manager Bryan Price was fired.
However, Cincinnati has been very hot over the last two weeks and is three games over .500 since that terrible start. Williams picked up Matt Harvey's reclamation project from the Mets and he was solid, seeming to improve with every start. This makes him a real badet as the deadline approaches.
Williams has other candidates, with Iglesias closest being a key barometer. He would get a solid return, but if Williams believes the Reds are close, does he move him? The other candidates to run are Gennett, Billy Hamilton, David Hernandez and Jared Hughes
Kansas City Royals
Current Winning Prediction: 54.9 (June Change: -7 , 9)
Probability of Playoff Probability: 0.0% (Down 0.7%)
Overall Championship Probability: 0.0%
Manny Bump: 0.00% title probability | 4.2 wins (third)
Everyone has to leave. Third baseman Moustakas has to be watched. His contract is more acceptable than that of Machado or Donaldson, which the Royals could use to get a better quality of perspective in return. Merrifield serait un bon choix pour n'importe quelle équipe avec un trou d'infield, et Danny Duffy l'a retourné après un début difficile
San Diego Padres
Prévision actuelle: 67.4 ( Changement de juin: -6.8)
Probabilité actuelle des séries éliminatoires: 0.2% (Descente 7.4%)
Probabilité globale de champions: 0.1%
Manny Bump : 0.00% probabilité de titre | 3.8 victoires (sixième)
Les Padres se sont comportés comme une équipe qui préfèrerait tourner le coin plus tôt que plus tard, donc ce n'est pas une donnée qu'ils vont en mode pleine vente au cours du mois prochain. S'ils le font, les équipes à la recherche d'aide au relevage – c'est-à-dire tous les prétendants – utiliseront le téléphone du directeur général A.J. Preller. Les Padres pourraient offrir back soulverver Hand, mais aussi d'autres artistes de qualité tels que Craig Stammen, Kirby Yates et même la recrue surprise Adam Cimber
Chicago White Sox
Prévision actuelle: 62.0 (Modification à partir de juin: 1.9)
Probabilité actuelle des playoffs: 0.1% (Décim 0.3%)
Probabilité globale de champions: 0.0%
Manny Bump : 0.00% probabilité de titre | 3,7 victoires (septième)
Jose Abreu est la puce de commerce restante la plus précieuse de Chicago, bien qu'il ne soit pas un joueur que les White Sox doivent déplacer ou pourraient même vouloir. Comme Freddie Freeman et Nick Markakis l'ont montré à Atlanta, il est important de les garder sur les vétérans de qualité grâce à une reconstruction.
Les White Sox les plus susceptibles d'y aller sont probablement les vétérans releveurs Joakim Soria et Luis Avilan. Nate Jones aurait pu les rejoindre, mais il est sur la liste des personnes handicapées. En tout cas, si les White Sox s'accrochent à Abreu, ce ne sera pas une date limite sur le South Side
Miami Marlins
Prévision actuelle en cours: 64.3 (Changeons de Juin: +6.8)
Probabilité de la playoff actuelle: 0.0% (Course: 0%)
Championnat Probabilité de conduire: 0.0%
Manny Bump: 0.00% Titre Probabilité | 3.5 victoires (huitième)
Les Marlins sont clairement une équipe à surveiller en tant que club au début d'une phase de reconstruction. Realmuto est le gros poisson, pour ainsi dire, mais il est aussi badez jeune pour que Miami puisse vouloir l'accrocher. Cela, à son tour, pourrait servir à augmenter le prix demandé par le club pour Realmuto.
Ailleurs, le vétéran Starlin Castro aurait clairement du sens pour une équipe mieux établie. Miami devrait probablement manger la plupart de son contrat pour obtenir beaucoup de retour. Les Marlins ont aussi des pièces d'enclos intéressantes à offrir à Kyle Barraclough, Adam Conley, Drew Steckenrider et Tayron Guerrero
Texas Rangers
Victoire gagnante actuelle: 72.7 ( Variation depuis juin: +4.9)
Probabilité des championnats actuels: 0.8% (Course initiale 0.1%)
Probabilité globale de champions: 0.0%
Manny Bump : 0.00% probabilité de titre | 3.2 victoires (15e)
Les Rangers ont des candidats commerciaux intrigants, titrés par les vétérans Cole Hamels et Beltre. Mais le Texas pourrait aussi chercher à faire bouger les options de bas-de-la-rotation comme Bartolo Colon et Jesse Chavez, et le releveur gaucher Jake Diekman attirerait aussi l'attention. Et faites attention au releveur Keone Kela, qui a bien évolué depuis son arrivée au Texas.
Detroit Tigers
Prévision de vict. Actuelle: 66.1 (Changement de juin: -6.5)
Probabilité de la playoff actuelle: 0.1% (Descendant 5.9%)
Probabilité globale de champions: 0.0%
Manny Bump: 0.00% title probabilité | 3,0 victoires (18e)
Baltimore Orioles
Current win forecast: 55.1 (Change from June: -4.9)
Current playoff probability: 0.0% (Down 0%)
Current championship probability: 0.0%
Manny Hit: 0.00% title probability | -3.5 wins (30th)
To bring this all back full circle, I'll punctuate my introductory thoughts about LeBron James by pointing you to the Baltimore Orioles. They have Machado, one of the 10 or 15 best players in the game. Yet, here they are, on pace to lose 115 games. Not even Trout is a better example of a big fish languishing in a dried-up pond. After they've traded Machado, Britton, Adam Jones and others, the Orioles could actually get those 115 losses.
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