It's time for workers to care about AI

Recent news of significant investments in artificial intelligence (AI) suggest that this technology is becoming a common use. The proof is that DocuSign has injected $ 15 million into an artificial intelligence contract discovery start-up, Apple has absorbed a developer of artificial intelligence cameras and the IOC has announced that banks should spend $ 5.6 billion on AI solutions in 2019, "ushering in the next financial revolution". green shoots of AI appear everywhere.

Despite excessive ethical concerns, Amnesty International advocates like Andrew Ng are encouraging companies to start using AI. Many are doing just that. KPMG says more than half of business executives plan to put in place some form of AI in the next 12 months. One of the most common discussions about AI is the potential impact on employment. This impact is probably incalculable, although many try to estimate it. Gartner, for example, thinks that artificial intelligence will create more jobs than it removes by 2025. Previous technological revolutions have destroyed jobs but have ultimately created new jobs and new industries. This trend has been repeated and this dynamic has now become conventional wisdom.

But not everyone is as optimistic about the impact of AI. In a 60-minute interview, Kai-fu Lee, one of the world's leading experts in artificial intelligence, said that in just 15 years, AI technology could replace about 40 percent of jobs in the world. The disturbance is already beginning. 75% of companies surveyed by KPMG expect intelligent automation to have a significant impact on 10 to 50% of their employees over the next two years. A Citigroup executive told Bloomberg that a better artificial intelligence could downsize the bank by 30%.

Faced with all these changes, many companies are publicly declaring that artificial intelligence will eliminate some boring and repetitive work and will allow people to perform higher level work. However, as an eminent venture capitalist who recently told me this: "most displaced call center workers do not become Java programmers". It's not just low-skilled jobs that are in danger. Gartner analysts recently announced that IA would eliminate 80% of project management tasks. This led SiliconANGLE to say, "Project leaders who worry about artificial intelligence prospects one day stealing their jobs might have an interest in considering a career change as soon as possible." The study KPMG revealed that virtually all organizations needed help preparing their employees. for future changes.

The risk of falling behind

A New York Times article noted that while many business executives are lending a public ear to "human centered AI" and the need to put in place a safety net for those who lose their jobs, they privately talk about the race to automate their workforce "to stay ahead The article also quotes a 2017 Deloitte survey that reveals that 53% of companies have already started using machines to perform tasks previously performed by humans. This figure is expected to rise to 72% next year.

This perceived risk of falling behind greatly affects C-Suite. For example, according to a report by Grant Thornton, CFOs need to "change their minds about technology investments. CFOs must be willing to experiment – and have failures along the way – or risk falling behind. And as noted in an article in Harvard Business Review (HBR), returns for AI leaders tend to be important. "They will benefit from innovations that will enable them to serve (and perhaps create) new markets and, at the same time, gain the share of non-AI users in existing markets." In addition, the authors conclude: "A fierce competition between companies appears to be in prospect with a widening gap between those who invest in AI and those who do not."

The net of this dynamic is that workers are not a major factor in the economic calculation of the tendency of companies to adopt the IA, despite so many public statements to the contrary. Thus, it is perhaps not surprising that the Edelman 2019 AI survey reveals a widely held view that it will result in job losses that can cause societal dislocation and that it will benefit the rich and hurt the poor.

The trend towards artificial intelligence is not inevitable, as problems could occur, which would slow down or even put an end to implementation. Numerous ethical concerns have surfaced in recent months and companies do not want to be on the wrong side of an employee or consumer revolt. These offsetting pressures may result in a pause, but the adoption path is unlikely to change substantially as commercial benefits are simply too great.

Artificial intelligence is the new reality

Indeed, AI can constitute the fastest paradigm shift in the history of technology. The HBR article traces the time it took for other major technological breakthroughs, such as the Web, mobile, cloud and big data to achieve substantial levels of implementation. , and concluded that AI could take less than half as much time.

The Brookings Institute takes a resolutely half-full approach, noting that over the past 30 years, technology has been an important source of new job creation and opportunities. Nevertheless, they believe that the United States must help workers and communities adapt to job displacement and reduce the hardships of people in need. In addition to traditional vocational training programs, Brookings is seeking a universal adjustment benefit. This includes strong income support for workers in training, but does not meet the universal basic income (UBI) appeal, a periodic and unconditional cash payment paid by the state to all people , whether they work or not.

Retraining for new positions could be relatively easy for some of the displaced, but much more difficult for others, and it is possible that AI's progress may leave a lot and create a new permanent lower class. The historian, philosopher and best-selling author Yuval Noah Harari believes that it is quite possible that AI will lead to the development of a "useless class" – billions of unemployed people. In an interview with Guardian, he said: "If they want to continue to have a job, understand the world and be relevant to what's going on, people will have to reinvent themselves again and again, and faster and faster. " there is UBI. In a recent New York Times article, Harari explained why Silicon Valley supported the UBI. "The message is this: we do not need you. But we are nice, so we will take care of you. "

The scene is now ready. On the one hand, it is generally thought that technological revolutions will create many new jobs and will more than offset losses when positions are eliminated through automation. The other point of view is that, this time, it is different, that we do not automate not only work, but also cognition, and that far fewer people will be needed at the same time. ;industry. Since many insiders begin to rely on these, workers actually have only two choices: 1) to continually improve their knowledge and skills much faster than before; 2) Hope that the UBI will become a reality in time to prevent them from falling into an abyss of AI.

Gary Grossman is Senior Vice President, Technology Practice, Edelman AI Center of Expertise.