It's time to (come back) to "Plan B"



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The argument of trading in the draft

Last week, I published an article titled "The Statistical Argument for Trading Purposes in the Draft".

One of the problems with the central argument was that it treated the NFL bill in the same way as the stock market or other primary or secondary trading markets. In the stock market, which was the central model of Article 538, buyers and sellers are trading stocks, which exhibit the characteristics of commodities.

In economics, the term commodity is used specifically for economic goods or services with total or partial but substantial fungibility; that is, the individual units are essentially interchangeable and each of its parts is identical to another.

Think of an ounce of silver ingots or gold. They all have the same size, shape, weight and color. One is like the other, and everyone has the same value.

If you buy a ton of wheat, one ton looks a lot like the next. Karl Marx described this property as follows: "From the taste of wheat, it is impossible to say who produced it – a Russian serf, a French peasant or an English capitalist."

Oil and copper are other examples of commodities; their supply and demand are part of a universal market.

The stock market is the same. Since a price is set for a share of, for example, IBM, Microsoft or Starbucks, it does not matter if the buyer buys a set of shares from a single seller or aggregates the purchase from a dozen sellers different; the product (the part itself) is indistinguishable from each other.

That's not the case with the NFL players – the money from the NFL draft mill. Unlike Grist, the NFL players are do not products. Each player is different and each will make a unique journey in their future career.

It could be argued that they can, to a large extent, be classified (as, for example, beef cuts) so that they look more like commodities, which is true to a certain extent. Does the NFL's annual association not primarily target the use of standard "rankings" to create a uniformly informed market of "buyers" among the 32 NFL franchises?

Nevertheless, even after all measurements and sorting have been done, the project involves the analysis of individuals across a wide range of tangible and intangible characteristics, and there is not even a "best" absolute standard for players; often, the value of a player is affected by how well he or she adapts to the culture and needs of the team.

In short, evaluating players in a model that treats them as products that can be easily categorized (using AV) as pieces of meat does not take into account a lot of NFL realities .

The argument of trading to get your franchise quarterback

Realizing that the argument advanced in article 538 was wrong, I recently wrote a new article that was trying to explain why NFL teams are forced by the rules of parity – salary cap, free competition, project, etc. – Swap up in the project in search of a franchise quarterback.

The exchange is actually a matter of luck

However, this article has ignored a huge problem: A high choice of projects does not guarantee that the selected player will actually become the cornerstone of the franchise that the team hopes for, and the front office risks spending a lot of capital to acquire this premium choice and not having real report on his investment.

There are questions about Jameis Winston it must be answered soon; the Jaguars seem to have finally answered all their questions about Blake Bortles, resulting in his release; the first QB out of the table in 2013 was the 13th choice, and not a single quarterback of this class has become a reliable starter; we all know the RG3 history by heart and 8th general choice Ryan Tannehill seems to have finally been washed without ever really succeeding.

The fact is that successful shifts are more likely to come from on the outside the first 10 choices of the draft. Consider the draft position of these NFL signal callers:

  1. Lamar Jackson 32nd overall

  2. Deshaun Watson 12th overall

  3. Dak Prescott 135th overall

  4. Teddy Bridgewater 32nd overall

  5. Derek Carr 36th overall

  6. Jimmy Garoppolo 62nd overall

  7. Russell Wilson 75th overall

  8. Nick Foles 88th overall

  9. Kirk Cousins ​​102nd overall

  10. Andy Dalton 35th overall

  11. Tyrod Taylor 180th overall

  12. Colt McCoy 85th overall

  13. Keenum Undrafted Case
  14. Joe Flacco 18th overall

  15. Aaron Rodgers 24th overall

  16. Ryan Fitzpatrick 250th overall

  17. Ben Rothlisberger 11th overall
  18. Drew Brees 32nd overall

  19. Tom Brady 199th overall

There are 19 quarterbacks, at least 16 of whom will start the day of the day, apart from the top ten.

Here are the other probable 2019 beginners who were written in the top 10:

(4) 2018: Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen

(2) 2017: Trubisky, Mahomes

(2) 2016: Goff, Wentz

(2) 2015: Winston, Mariota

(1) 2012: chance

(1) 2011: Newton

(1) 2008: Matt Ryan

(1) 2005: Eli Manning

These are 14 quarters in the top 10, still in the NFL, healthy and likely to start for their teams on opening day in September.

From the first group, 12 players were chosen in the 2nd round or later (and an un-drawn!).

What this tells us is a very simple fact:

If you want to write a starting quarterback for your franchise, you do not have to be in the top 10. You do not even have to write in the first round!

Watch 2014, when Jimmy Garoppolo and Derek Carr were taken in the second turn (with Bridgewater caught # 32 in general).

Or, look two years earlier until 2012, when Russell Wilson And Nick Foles were written in the 3rd, and Kirk Cousins was taken in the 4th.

Do you want good news or bad news first?

The good newsif you need a quarterback for your franchise, does that you do not need to be at the top of the list to get your guy. Starting shifts can be found anywhere in the first round, and often on the 2nd. The current starter group includes the players in the 3rd, 4th and (as in the case of Tom Brady) 6th round.

The bad news isThe wickets do not have an excellent reputation for identifying the best quarterback in the class.

In 2017Trubisky was spotted 8 places in front of Mahomes.

In 2016Here are the 5 quarters that came off the table after Wentz but before Dak Prescott: Paxton Lynch, Christian Hackenberg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler, Conner Cook.

In 2014Johnny Manziel was the 2nd QB taken – ahead of Bridgewater, Carr and Garoppolo.

In 2012Weeden and Osweiler were selected before Russell Wilson, Nick Foles and Kirk Cousins.

In 2011, Locker, Gabbert & Ponder beat Andy Dalton.

The starting quarters can be recruited anywhere in the first round – they do not have to be one of the top two players on the board. In addition, many starters were selected in the 2nd, some even in the 3rd or 4th round.

At the end of the 5th round, the chances of reaching a starting QB are almost nil.

But the antecedents of NFL personnel accurately predicting which quarterback is the right quarter is … not distinguished.

Look at the lists of shifts written in the first two rounds of recent projects:

2007: JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, John Beck and Drew Stanton

2008Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Brian Brohm and Chad Henne

2009Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman and Pat White

2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow and Jimmy Clausen

2011: Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick

2012Andrew Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Robert Griffin, Brandon Weeden and Brock Osweiler

2013: E.J. Manuel, Geno Smith

2014: Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel, Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr

2015: Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota

2016: Jared Goff, Christian Hackenberg, Paxton Lynch, Carson Wentz

There are 40 first and second round selections at quarterback.

I would say that the record on those 40 choices would be:

  • 12 net achievements (30%)
  • 20 dummies (50%)
  • 8 mixed bags (20%)

I had a lot of business meetings in my life.

If I submitted a commercial proposal to my boss with an estimate of 30% for a positive result and 50% for a negative result, then I asked the company to invest heavily in my proposal, it would make me laugh in the room . If I did it again, I would probably be fired.

What does it mean?

NFL evaluators seem to be missing out on quarterly assessments.

Of course, if you have a choice from the top two or three in the draft, your chances of reaching a successful quarterback are better than if you choose later.

But the historical success rate for GMs who choose the right quarter at the start of the repechage is simply not enough to allow a team to put all their chips in the middle of the table to attack their teammate. While Redskins fans learned something from the RG3 experience, we also learned the devastating impact of trading a ton of capital in return for a quarterback perspective, to get very little return on investment .

The failure of the RG3 transaction delayed the team for 5 years, largely because the front office simply did not have enough high draft choices to feed its list.

Spending a lot of capital in exchange to be traded for a quarter is a bet too risky to be justified. History tells us that the rate of contraction is far too high to justify the heavy investment of drafting choices necessary to achieve it from an average or late position.

What should be the strategy if a team does not hold the pick at the top of the repechage?

First, DO NOT COMMERCIALIZE!

The chances of missing the draft are simply too great.

Second, make sure that the team has a competent starting quarter under contract before the draft so that the front office does not panic and does not make the wrong decision to exchange either a QB or a player.

Third, use an existing draft on Thursday or Friday to select the BQBA (Best Quarter Available). Do not hesitate to double; this could mean writing two-quarters in the same year, or making quarters in back-to-back drafts. The worst thing that can happen is that they both succeed and you can exchange one (Jimmy Garoppolo).

If you do not believe that the team can acquire a starting quarterback with a choice of first-round or second-round midfielder, I invite you to return to the list of 19 league quarterbacks that have been selected outside the tournament. Mountain peak. -10, and special attention to the dozen that were written on the 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 6th round.

So what?

As part of this strategy, the franchise will not waste any draft picks on the search for failed prospects at the forefront.

They will not spend a ton of free quarter money either.

Instead, the team will likely have an experienced veteran of fair quality associated with a young player with potential.

Remaining drafts and excess hood space should be used to reinforce trenches, reinforce defense, and add offensive weapons.

That's "Plan B"

I wrote on this plan after the end of the 2017 season.

The plan has not changed.

Here's what I had to say in my January 2018 article:

I'm happy to see the Redskins enter the field in September with [an average QB], as long as the defense is reinforced with an excellent young talent ….

This concept of "great defense, non-elite quarterback" is by no means an innovative idea. I hear the saying "The defense wins the championships" since I was a boy and many teams have been very successful in imposing on the defense the burden of winning matches, allowing a quarter- back which is just good enough to win. We can go back to the '91 Redskins defense, which gave the second lowest points and a +18 rotational ratio, giving Mark Rypien a lot of chances to score points.

A more recent example would be the Minnesota Vikings, whose top-ranked defense allowed the Vikings to reach the playoffs in 2017, despite the start of Sam Samford, which had been hampered at the start of the season, and saving him Case Keenum's career. The Houston Texans have won two AFC South titles with a stifling defense and wrong quarterback play in recent seasons.

What I mean is that the Redskins are able to complete building a defense of the top 10 this season by repeating the type of interim strategy they used a year ago … This would be both effective on the ground and effective in terms of managing the salary cap.

"The goal … is to create a defense that decreases the opponent's quarter to the point where your" least "quarter can surpass that of the elite quarter you face in the playoffs."

Let's stop for a moment on the quarterback.

The Redskins should tie in to finishing what they've started [two years ago], and create a top-10 defense by focusing on that side of the ball in … the project.

With a dominant defense, anything is possible.

Plan B is the option that allows the Redskins not to hunt an elite quarterback by free will, free trade or exchange in the draft. They take a mid-1st or Friday game with NFL potential and let it learn under coaches Alex Smith, Case Keenum and Colt McCoy. Let Case Keenum lead the team in 2019 as the young quarterback grows. Win with the same formula that worked for the first nine games of last year – ball control, low turnover, field position, defensive football.

Come back to the 2020 project and take another quarterback – two if you need it. One of them is likely to grow enough to win with this defense strategy first.

The lottery for a choice among the first three projects is a proven way to spend capital for high-risk investments.

Getting a high-level quarterback in any of these ways is expensive (in dollars or project capital) and unreliable in terms of results, as history has shown.

It took the Redskins half a decade to recover from the RG3 trade. Other teams (like the Jags with Bortles or the Phins with Tannehill) have spent years spoiling competitive opportunities because they had invested too much in the starter to cut the baits.

But equip each group with top talent positions to help a mediocre quarterback who just takes care of football and does not lose the match – now c & # 39; a strategy that can be successfully implemented and sustained over a long period.

This is the "Plan B".

This is the plan the Redskins need.

Survey

What is your preference?

  • 4%

    Trade against a talented quarterback like Haskins who can help reinvigorate the offense

    (9 votes)

  • 95%

    Implement plan "B" with Case Keenum

    (183 votes)


192 total votes

Vote now

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