It's too late for Joe Biden to compete in the 2020 race?

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He leads his Democratic contenders in the primary polls, has a number of potential substitutes waiting behind the scenes and has a clear lead for general election polls on President Donald Trump in a cycle in which Democrats are elected.

Despite these obvious benefits, Biden has not yet committed to putting his hat in the ring.

So how long can Biden wait to get into the race, if that's what he chooses to do?

The short answer: he still has time. The caveat: Historically speaking, most of the proposed candidates are already in the race at this point.

Since 1972, there have been 16 presidential primaries in which an incumbent president did not stand for re-election. The average candidate in these competitions has either filed with the FEC, or formally announced his candidacy before February 19 of the year preceding the primary.
Now, the number of previous candidates who have entered the race is quite wide. A few arrived very early, along with John McCain, who formed an exploratory committee on November 16, 2006. Others waited until the summer of 1991 for the first time. year before primary.
If a candidate like Beto O 'Rourke showed up in the next few weeks, he would be later than usual but would stay in the normal range.

There is little evidence that Biden is in a hurry to get close to the average candidate, though. If Biden decides to run, he can start later in the race.

Another way to look at the announcement dates is to compare the candidates against the other candidates who ran for president in a given year. Some fields are formed later than others. Since 1972, 75% of the candidates proposed were in the first half of the candidates having announced their course in a given primary. In other words, most of the nominees have not hesitated to get into the race compared to their competitors.

One possible reason for this is that candidates who advertise earlier may create better organizations, may be more confident about their background and / or hold a better voting position than the average candidate. These benefits can enable them to become stronger candidates. In the last cycle, the first Republican supporter, Jeb Bush, announced that he was exploring a race in December 2014 and the prospective candidate, Donald Trump, formed an exploratory committee in March 2015. They were one. first of the Republican contest to participate in the race.
CNN already has 12 Democrat candidates for 2020 who have formed an Exploratory Committee or who have declared their nominations and who are still in the running. While it's plausible that 12 other people could get into the race, it's likely that if Biden does, he'll have it done later than most other candidates.
There are of course a number of examples of candidates who came forward later in the year and were appointed to the presidency. Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Mitt Romney in 2012 waited until April of the year before the election to announce their exploratory committee or campaign. Notably, both were among the first candidates to enter the race for their primaries.

Both candidates to file with the FEC or to announce their nominations, the last of a cycle since 1972, have also been named president. During the very slow formation period of 1992, Bill Clinton set up his Exploratory Committee on August 16, 1991. He did not even officially announce that he was running before October 1991.

Perhaps the most promising comparison for Biden is Ronald Reagan in 1980. Like Biden, Reagan had already run twice as president. Like Biden, Reagan was leading in primary polls. Like Biden, Reagan was struggling with age issues. Like Biden, Reagan hoped to eliminate a holder.

Reagan filed with the FEC only on May 18, 1979, much later than most of his competitors for the 1980 Republican nomination. He did not officially announce his arrival until November 13, 1979, this year. which was later than all his serious competitors.

Because Biden, like Reagan before him, is so well known and has a previous campaign infrastructure, he can probably afford to wait longer to officially run than the average candidate.

Of course, for every Reagan, there are many candidates who come in late and fail. In recent cycles, we have seen Rick Perry in 2012 and Fred Thompson in 2008 lose a high number of people in the first polls once voters have seen them in action. When you enter late, the chances of resolving a campaign's problems are less great.

All in all, time is running out for someone like Biden. This is not a late training ground as in 1992 for Clinton. Biden likely wants to be in the race by June, when Reagan had already applied to the FEC when the first primary debate of 2020 took place.

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