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It’s not often that an NBA team can add an MVP after the start of the season. When things got tough between James Harden and the Houston Rockets, the Brooklyn Nets were ready to pounce.
When the Rockets were blown away by the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday night and Harden said in his post-game press conference that he didn’t think Houston could be fixed, a trade was inevitable.
Harden, the MVP of 2018, was sent to the Nets on Wednesday afternoon. The Nets were already one of the most intriguing teams in the league along with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving (when and if he returns to the Nets), and they just added a player who averaged 29.6 points. per game over his nine Rockets seasons.
It’s a fun move and the Nets are adding an undeniably talented star. But does that make them a better team from a betting standpoint? If you believe in the change in championship odds after the trade, the Nets are now one of the top two teams in the NBA.
James Harden’s trade shakes up NBA chances
BetMGM quickly re-released NBA Championship odds after the trade details were settled. And they were bullish on the Nets.
The Lakers, who come out of a title and still get a lot of league bets, are still the favorites at +250. The Nets now have +300 to take the title, which is incredibly low for a 6-6 team. The Nets had +600 to win the title at BetMGM when the season started, and they are the book’s second biggest liability in that market.
No other team is even close to the Lakers and the Nets. The Clippers are next at +600. The Bucks follow at +700 and no other team is below +1400.
It’s not a big surprise. Big stars get a ton of attention and the Nets have a trio of superstars. They’ll have to figure out the chemistry and how to protect anyone, and Harden will have to prove he’s locked up after plenty of negative stories leading up to the season, but BetMGM wasn’t going to give up a lot on the Nets. win everything.
How much will Harden help the Nets?
The Rockets weren’t good this season with Harden. They were 2-6 ATS when he played. The Rockets won and covered in the only game Harden was out.
Houston isn’t as good as Brooklyn, of course. But the Nets ditched Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert and Taurean Price in trading. LeVert was scoring 18.5 points per game. Allen averaged 11.4 points and 10.2 rebounds. Prince had 8.1 points. Brooklyn wasn’t going to hesitate to drop any of those players in the deal, but there’s still a lot to lose. And the loss of Allen makes the Nets even worse in one key way: defensively.
Allen was a solid rim protector on a team that were mediocre at best on defense with him. Harden’s defensive shortcomings may be overrated, but he won’t help much on that side. If Brooklyn doesn’t win the Eastern Conference, defense will likely be the reason.
The Nets are already playing at the fourth-fastest pace in the league and could get faster with Harden and Irving both in the lineup. It will mean a lot of points, and a lot of points awarded as well. The top / bottom totals of the nets are about to increase, and they will still be exceeded many times.
The Nets will likely be better with Harden – they’re only 5-7 ATS this season – but the market will adjust as well. If you want to bet on the new Nets to win the title or even any game in the near future, there won’t be much value.
With a move on Wednesday, expectations changed a lot for Brooklyn.
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