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The Russell Westbrook experience is over for the Rockets, who traded Westbrook to the Washington Wizards on Wednesday in exchange for John Wall and a future protected first-round pick. What does this mean for James Harden? A quick inventory illustrates a constant downgrading of co-stars from Harden to Houston. Two seasons ago he had Chris Paul. Last season he had Westbrook. Now, for the moment, he has Wall, who is coming out of a ruptured Achilles and has not played in an NBA game for almost two calendar years.
At first glance, this seems to make it clear that a possible Harden swap is inevitable. The Rockets have already left Robert Covington for a pair of Blazers first-round picks (the first of which was this year’s 16th overall pick, Isaiah Stewart), and they get another Washington protected first-round pick in the l ‘deal on the wall. Reconstruction appears to be underway.
Where is it?
Obviously, we are not going to believe a word that comes out of the Houston camp. This is all a game of leverage, and the less desperate they seem to trade Harden, the better the offers they will receive. And the point is, they’re not actually desperate. Unlike the majority of superstars who are starting to demand trades, Harden is not within a year of walking. He has two years left plus a player option on his contract, which means the Rockets are not in immediate threat of losing him.
Would they really be convinced that Wall and Harden can get along better than Westbrook and Harden? I certainly hope not. Like Westbrook, Wall is a bad shooter who has absolutely no experience with the ball game and apparently has no desire to do so. Indeed, this analysis from ESPN’s Zach Lowe in November 2018, just two months before we last saw Wall play, paints a surprisingly grim picture of Wall’s off-ball outlook:
He never evolved into a 3 point threat. His speed – which makes Wall special – only shows up here and there. Last season only Dirk Nowitzki and DeMarcus Cousins spent a higher percentage of time in the field than Wall standing still or walking, per second Spectrum tracking data – a statistic that set off alarm bells throughout the league and within the Wizards.
I could never forget to read this. Never has a statistic been more aligned with the eye test. Even watch a few minutes of the movie Wall and you’ll see a really fast guy who for some reason likes to play slow, and if he doesn’t have the ball, he’s a statue. And now that speed – as Lowe once said, once his greatest asset – is probably severely compromised after Achilles surgery? And he can’t shoot alongside a guy from Harden who needs to turn around him more than anything else?
If you want that Harden era in Houston to continue, you can try to convince yourself that Wall is, or at least was before his injuries, a bit more like Chris Paul than Westbrook ever was in that he was. Expertly probes the midrange and can at least top the 30 percent mark beyond the arc. But it is a reach.
The simple truth is, Wall has long been the closest thing to a Westbrook clone, and in fact, he’s an almost identical player alongside Harden with an almost identical contract. The only significant difference between the two is that Houston would never have gotten a first-round pick for Westbrook from a team other than the Wizards, who are desperate to convince Bradley Beal to stick around for the long term. The point is, the Rockets probably should have to abandon a first-round pick to offload Russ on anyone else.
The Rockets can try to do whatever they want, but they’re not looking to compete with Wall and Harden. They embark on a reconstruction, acquiring assets when and where they can with the limited resources at their disposal. Harden, obviously, is the most valuable asset, and it’s hard to imagine the end of the game being anything other than eventually cashing it in.
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