Jerry Gulke: The crop tour validates the farmer's thinking



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Grain markets have further declined. For the week ending August 23, December corn was down 14 cents, November soybeans 24 cents and December wheat slightly lower.

The Pro Farmer Midwest 2019 growers tour was organized in seven states this week. The reports from the tour uncovered the stresses on corn and soybean crops after an excessively wet spring and a record planting pace this year. Scouts on Crop Tour sampled approximately 3,000 Corn Belt fields in seven of the country's largest corn and soybean states.

Here is a summary of what scouts have discovered in the seven states they visited (corn is measured in acre and soybeans in pods per square of 3 'X 3'):

"The Pro Farmer Tour found what we thought was suspicious," says Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group. "I think the market sort of looked at the results and said," Well, you did not tell us again that we do not know already. "There was no factor wow in there."

Gulke said the other negative force for grain markets was China. According to Reuters, China will impose an additional tariff of 5% on US soybeans starting September 1 and 10% on US wheat, corn and sorghum from December 15. The rate will be 10% extra on US beef and pork on September 1st.

"Then Friday afternoon, Trump came out and said that he would respond to China's retaliation," Gulke said. "Things went so bad; you wonder if it could get worse in terms of tariffs. Then suddenly, here is something like this. It looks like we are in the long run. "

Gulke hopes the leaders of both countries will reach an agreement.

"You would think that more serene minds will take over and say," You know, we're going to ruin everything, let's meet and meet halfway, "he says." So, I hope that some it will be December 1st. "

Pro Farmer Production Estimates

Following the completion of the crop tour, Pro Farmer released its 2019 corn and soybean crop estimates. Pro Farmer sets the US corn crop at 13.358 billion bushels for an average yield of 163, 3 bo. per acre. This compares with the USDA's estimate of 169.5 bushels on August 169. per acre.

For soybeans, Pro Farmer production is estimated at 3.497 billion bushels, with a national average yield of 46.1 bushels. per acre, down from the 48.5 bu. USDA per acre estimated in August.

According to Gulke, if Pro Farmer is right and the Midwest is experiencing a normal freeze, the remaining corn stocks will be reduced from 2.1 billion bushels to 1.6 billion bushels. For soybean, these estimates reduce production from 175 million to 200 million bushels.

"It solves a lot of problems," he says. "If the market believes Pro Farmer, you probably will not buy beans or corn here unless the government offers something different. We needed a good report and congratulations to Pro Farmer for proposing something that most of us will say you are a lot more realistic than the USDA. "

Read more

Pro Farmer National Corn and Soy Yield Estimate Compared to USDA Forecast

Recaping Crop Tour 2019 – Results from Seven States

Jerry Gulke: USDA reports create more questions than answers

Jerry Gulke: We've come full circle

Find more written and audio comments from Gulke at AgWeb.com/Gulke

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