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Forty names, games, teams, and minutiae are in college football news (additional suitcases sold separately in Palo Alto, where Stanford could move to the Pacific Northwest to escape local health restrictions):
MORE DASH: Changes abound
SECOND QUARTER: IF IN DOUBT, DON’T PULL YOUR COACH
There are a lot of close calls to be made in power programs in terms of keeping or firing a trainer. The Dash has some thoughts on this.
Almost universally, the decision in this tense economic climate should be on the side of keeping the coach and preventing further financial bleeding. If it will cost tens of millions of dollars to correct a mistake the athletic director himself likely made by overpaying and / or excessively extending a coach who was doing a poor job, bite the bullet and carry on for one more season. It is better to do this than to make tough times more difficult for core employees and programs with no income.
A look at five of these situations:
Texas (11). Tom Herman’s four seasons have failed to meet the high expectations, while simultaneously improving the product over what he inherited. The Longhorns are now a winning program they weren’t under Charlie Strong (16-21 in three seasons). But they’re nothing more than an upper-middle-class Big 12 team, better than most players in the league but worse than the best.
Her conference record is 21–14. In that same period, Oklahoma is 32-5, Iowa 23-12, and Oklahoma 19-15. Under Herman, 21 of the 35 Big 12 games (60%) were decided by a single score – meaning the Longhorns are, week after week, just one member of the grassroots league. These close games also amplify things like penalties, turnovers and questionable training decisions.
The recruitment situation is not good either. The 2021 class Texans ranked by Rivals in the national top 35 will travel to Alabama, Ohio, USC, and Oklahoma – not Texas. And the recent swing of the nation’s top 2022 quarterback – Quinn Ewers of Austin – from the Longhorns to Ohio State is significant.
So what should athletic director Chris Del Conte do? Swing for the Urban Meyer (12) fences. And if you fail to hit that specific home run – the best way to create a national championship contender – then strongly consider standing up. In a sports department that in September laid off 35 employees and cut 35 other vacancies, in addition to department-wide pay cuts and a dozen holidays, it is irresponsible to accept up to $ 24 million in buyouts from current football staff. (Not to mention what it would cost to hire the next staff member.)
A common rationalization in times like this is that programs can’t afford do not lay off a coach, due to the financial blow to the turnstiles and donations. But in places like Texas, the fan base is large and loyal enough to never run dry.
Take the official attendance figures from 2016 (Charlie Strong’s final season, a third consecutive losing year) through 2019 (the first three years under Herman). In 2016, Texas averaged 97,880 fans per home game. In Herman’s highly anticipated debut season, attendance dropped to 92,778, then dropped to 98,713 in 2018, and fell back slightly in 19 to 96,306.
At least in terms of tickets sold, fans didn’t leave during Strong’s final season to force any sort of door revenue ruin situation. Did some stay at home and not use their tickets? Most likely, but they paid for them. Did some refuse donations? Maybe, but how much, for how long and at what cost? Many deep-pocketed alums who are temporarily unhappy will come back into the fold if they like the next hire.
Auburn (13). Gus Malzahn’s annual tightrope walk falters again. The Tigers are 5-3 and could easily be worse off, if not for a few lucky umpiring breaks. They are 0-2 against the currently ranked teams, with an average defeat margin of 25 points. On a granular level, the former Tempo innovator no longer seems to have a leg up on opposing defenses, and quarterback Bo Nix hasn’t significantly improved as a grade one to grade two despite a talented reception body.
But this situation would cost a fortune to change. Malzahn’s buyout is reportedly north of $ 21 million, and athletic director Allen Greene has called for a 10% spending cut in 2019 – before the pandemic brings down the bottom of the varsity sports market.
Yet Auburn mysteriously evolves when it comes to athletics and has often been irrational urgency about football’s success. If the infamous school recall frame is moved enough around, maybe that monster amount of money could be collected. If that is the case, Hugh Freeze (14) seems to be Auburn’s perfect football coach.
Michigan (15). The wheels are on to Ann Arbor, after a listless loss to Penn State previously without a win, the Wolverines fell to 2–4. Much like Herman in Texas, Jim Harbaugh improved the program, but nowhere near as good as expected. Six years later, there is no reason to believe Harbaugh will compete for a national title in Michigan.
The famous Michigan Man plunged into obscurity during his press conference on Monday, alluding to “disregard for the process by some”. Asked by Angelique Chengelis from Detroit News What he meant, Harbaugh said, “I think sometimes outside of the program I think people are very results-oriented and the process is very important to us. The process is not as important outside the program as it is for us inside the program. Which sounds good, except that this is a results-driven company (hence the dashboard) and Harbaugh’s six-year process is not leading to the desired results.
It wouldn’t be an outrageously costly managerial change to make, with Harbaugh only having a year on contract after this season. And the state of Iowa Matt Campbell (16) would be an attractive replacement without spending as much as Michigan pays Harbaugh (roughly $ 8 million). But there are no clear signs yet that the school is ready to end Harbaugh’s tenure and move on. Maybe that will change if he suffers a sixth straight loss to Ohio State – and a third straight annihilation from the Buckeyes – but this situation is calmer than you might expect at the moment.
Tennessee (17). Jeremy Pruitt’s record now sits at 15–17 in 32 games, while the intolerable Butch Jones has gone 20–12 in his last 32 games on the job. Tennessee are 2–5, and their last two games are against the top 10 against Florida and Texas A&M; a record 2 to 7 would be the Volunteers’ worst season in terms of winning percentage since – take a deep breath – 1909.
Maybe Tennessee would like to get involved in the Freeze draw. However, the school’s coaching rotation cycle is absolutely part of the reason the program has been in turmoil for 12 years.
With four coaches since 2008, the flights lacked continuity in recruiting and overall program construction. With a promising recruiting class set to arrive in a few weeks, staying the course with Pruitt isn’t the worst idea in a school that has significantly slashed its athletic budget (with the notable exception of some obnoxious members of the football staff) . Besides, no one wants to see Phillip Fulmer (18) start another coaching search.
Nebraska (19 years old). Scott Frost has been a bust, but he’s not going anywhere yet. His record is 10-19, which is ridiculously bad by Nebraska standards – the worst since Bill Jennings in the late 1950s – but the Cornhuskers have no choice but to let this game be played out. less than a year older. The money invested in Frost and the budget cuts this year make it a no-talk. Sporting director Bill Moos is linked to Frost, and the fanbase adores his former star quarterback, so he’ll have every chance to dig into the current crater.
The turnover will likely come at the staff level, where Frost still has 13 people in major roles from his tenure in Central Florida. Frost will have to suck and admit that his team’s overall transition from UCF to the Big Ten hasn’t worked out and make changes to it.
If Nebraska still stinks at this point in 2021, it might just be time to do some coaching shopping – and the school might be faced with the reality of its commercialization. Maybe it could attract Chris Klieman (20) from the State of Kansas or a rising coordinator. But Nebraska’s era as a job destination for anyone unrelated to the program continues to pull back in the rearview mirror.
MORE DASH: Changes abound
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