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One shot for every American. Political leaders and vaccine makers have strived to achieve this goal since the start of the pandemic, and it may finally become a reality this summer.
A Food and Drug Administration advisory committee will vote on whether to recommend Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose coronavirus vaccine for emergency clearance on Friday. An FDA review on Wednesday showed the shot to be safe and effective against COVID-19.
If J & J’s shot gets the green light as planned, it will be the third coronavirus vaccine to be distributed across the United States. The vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna have been given to more than 45 million Americans so far, although less than 21 million Americans have received the full two-dose regimen.
Pfizer and Moderna have pledged to deliver 600 million doses to the American public by the end of July – enough to fully immunize 300 million people. J&J, meanwhile, said it could deliver up to 100 million doses of its vaccine by the end of June.
This means that by the summer, the United States would have more than enough doses to immunize the 332 million plus Americans (although vaccines have not yet been licensed for children under the age of 16. ).
Here’s a timeline of how vaccinations could increase over the next five months:
- March, 31st: 240 million doses distributed
- May 31st: 420 million doses distributed
- June 30th: 500 million doses distributed
- July 31: 700 million doses distributed
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are each over 90% effective in preventing symptomatic COVID-19, while the J&J vaccines appear to be 66% effective in preventing moderate and severe cases. However, it is difficult to compare the companies’ trials side by side, as they took place at different stages of the pandemic and in different geographic regions.
End of March: close of vaccinations for priority groups
J&J originally planned to deliver 12 million doses by the end of February. But federal officials said only 3-4 million doses would be immediately available next week, assuming the FDA clears the shot.
By the end of March, the company will likely have produced 20 million doses, Richard Nettles, J&J vice president of U.S. medical affairs, said Tuesday in a House committee hearing.
Jeffrey Zients, the White House coronavirus czar, called the slowness of J&J manufacturing “disappointing” on Wednesday. But the government has started to help the company procure equipment and raw materials, he said, which is picking up the pace.
Pfizer and Moderna, meanwhile, are on track to distribute 220 million cumulative doses by March 31.
UPS employees move a shipping container containing Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine to a sorting facility in Louisville, Ky. On December 13, 2020.
Michael Clevenger – Pool / Getty Images
At Tuesday’s hearing, Pfizer chief commercial officer John Young said the company intends to make 120 million doses available by the end of March (including the roughly 40 million doses shipped so far). Moderna chairman Stephen Hoge said the company will deliver 100 million doses (including 54 million that have already been released) in the same amount of time.
That means the United States could complete immunization of priority groups – including the elderly, essential workers, and people with high-risk illnesses – next month. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that these groups include approximately 200 million people.
End of May: the general population gets their pictures
In total, the three pharmaceutical companies are expected to deliver around 420 million doses by the end of May. Vaccinations for the general public could be in full swing by April.
Pfizer is on track to produce an additional 80 million doses by the end of May, bringing the company’s U.S. total to 200 million. Moderna originally planned to deliver an additional 100 million doses to the United States by the end of June, but these are now expected to arrive in May.
People line up in a Disneyland parking lot to receive COVID-19 vaccines in Anaheim, California.
Valerie Macon / AFP / Getty Images
The two companies are also trying to speed up the deployment of their vaccines.
Pfizer told USA TODAY it has added more production lines at its manufacturing facilities, reduced the time it takes to produce vaccine batches, and will soon reduce the time it takes to make vaccine DNA. In January, the FDA also instructed vaccinators to squeeze six doses from each vial of Pfizer vaccine, instead of the five initially allowed in December.
Hoge said Moderna “is working to allow up to 15 doses per vial in the short term”, instead of the 10 that vaccinators are currently extracting.
A recent report from the American Enterprise Institute, a right-wing think tank, found that 50% of the U.S. population could be protected from COVID-19 by mid-May if J&J shooting was allowed. Without this third vaccine, it could take an additional two to three weeks to reach this stage, the researchers said.
End of June: all adults can have access to a photo
Nettles said J&J could deliver up to 100 million doses of vaccine by June 30 (including the 20 million doses in the spring). That would bring the total number of coronavirus vaccines distributed in the United States to 500 million – enough to immunize 300 million people, or all of the roughly 259 million adults in the United States.
Federal officials are still hopeful that J&J can accelerate this timeline.
“We are working with the company to speed up the pace and schedule for delivery of the 100 million doses, which is contractually required by the end of June,” Zients said Wednesday.
The American Enterprise Institute has estimated that 75% of the U.S. population could be protected from COVID-19 by mid-June to the end of June, assuming J&J shooting is allowed.
A dentist receives the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine in Anaheim, Calif., Jan.8, 2020.
Rightmire brand / Getty Images
End of July: the United States could have a surplus of doses
By the end of July, the United States may have more vaccine than it can distribute.
Experts don’t expect the country’s roughly 73 million children to start getting vaccinated against the coronavirus until fall or winter – or perhaps early in 2022 – because there is no has no data on the safety or effectiveness of vaccines in younger age groups yet. (The exception is Pfizer’s shot, which is permitted for ages 16 and over.)
Pfizer and Moderna both plan to deliver an additional 100 million doses each by the end of July, bringing the companies’ total doses to 300 million each. The United States has not purchased more than that, although it has the option of purchasing an additional 200 million doses each from J&J, Moderna and Pfizer.
According to the American Enterprise Institute, “the addition of a third [vaccine] candidate will mean that 22% to 33% more of the population can be vaccinated by July. “
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