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Prior to the pandemic, last month’s gains would have been considered healthy. But the U.S. economy is still about 10 million jobs below its pre-pandemic level, with a growing proportion of the unemployed describing their jobs as gone for good. Faster hiring is needed so people who were laid off during the pandemic recession can quickly return to work.
Two enhanced federal unemployment benefit programs are set to expire at the end of December – just as viral cases increase and colder weather shuts off alfresco dining and many public events. Unless Congress passes another bailout package, more than 9 million unemployed people will be left without any unemployment assistance, state or federal, as of Christmas.
Friday’s report coincides with renewed efforts by Congress to reach agreement on a new rescue aid package. A bipartisan group of senators proposed a $ 900 billion plan that would include expanded unemployment benefits, more loans to small businesses, and aid to state and local governments. But there is no sign of an imminent deal.
The most serious threat to the economy remains the raging virus, and most experts say any economic recovery depends on how quickly an effective vaccine can be widely distributed and used. Deaths in the United States from the coronavirus surpassed 3,100 on Wednesday, a new high, with more than 100,000 Americans hospitalized with the disease, also a record, and new daily cases exceeding 200,000. In response, at least 12 states have imposed new restrictions on businesses over the past month, according to an Associated Press count.
For now, there are signs that the economic recovery is stumbling. Consumer spending rose in October at the slowest pace in six months. Sit-down dinners at restaurants are down again, according to data from booking site OpenTable. And a Fed Business Conditions report found that growth slowed last month in several areas of the Midwest and in the Fed’s Philadelphia district.
Still, the full impact of the worsening pandemic may not be evident in Friday’s jobs report, which measures hiring trends in mid-month. Some state restrictions were not imposed until later in November. As a result, some economists say the worst consequences of the pandemic will not emerge until the December jobs report is released in early January.
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