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Without Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden will become “an outsider,” FiveThirtyEight founder and pollster Nate Silver said on Sunday.
Silver told ABC “This Week” that he believes the 2020 election is going to be in Pennsylvania.
“Pennsylvania didn’t climb to a seven or eight point lead in Biden, as we see in Michigan and Wisconsin,” he noted. He went on to say that “this is not a big early voting state, so a lot of votes have yet to be cast in Pennsylvania.”
According to the national average of the FiveThirtyEight polls, two days before election day, the former vice president led Trump by 8.5%.
Biden leads Trump 4.9% in Pennsylvania on Sunday, according to FiveThirtyEight’s updated average of the 2020 presidential general election polls, compared to a larger 8.4% lead in Michigan and 8.6% in Wisconsin.
Silver discussed some of the issues Pennsylvania faces during “This Week” Sunday.
“Among the votes that were mailed out there were provisions for naked voting, a security envelope that could make things more complicated, you can involve the courts,” Silver said. “You have protests, looting in Philadelphia. There’s a lot going on and maybe a lot of little things adding up and Biden loses Pennsylvania by half a point.
In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Battlefield State of Pennsylvania by about 44,000 votes out of 6 million votes, or less than 1%, according to the final tally, after weeks of counting provisional ballots and foreigners.
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Trump’s promise to bring back “nice, clean coal” and give every factory worker a victory in 2016, also helped him achieve victories in Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio, states still under. the shock of the recession that technically ended in 2009.
President Trump campaigned in Montoursville, Pa. On Saturday night, his fourth and final event of the day in the state, ahead of the election and reminded crowds of his announcement at an earlier rally in Pennsylvania that he had signed an order. to “strongly protect your states from hydraulic fracturing and the energy industry.”
During his campaign in Pennsylvania, Trump capitalized on his opponent’s desire to “move” away from the oil industry by telling supporters that Biden would “abolish” fracking. He pointed out that the former vice president had done an about-face on hydraulic fracturing, a major industry in the state of key swing.
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Biden’s camp scolded Pennsylvania on Sunday and plans to do so again on Monday, with Biden, his wife, Jill Biden, and California running mate Kamala Harris and her husband, Doug Emhoff, moving across Pennsylvania to ask for votes of last minute.
Morgan Phillips, Adam Shaw, Caitlin McFall, and Fox News’ Associated Press contributed to this report.
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