But looking more closely at the data, we see why it is silly to reject Biden's advance simply because of the recognition of his name. That does not mean that he will win the nomination. In fact, I bet against him. Nevertheless, Biden's current figures mean that his candidacy must be taken seriously.
An instant gift of his performance is to compare it to that of other candidates with similar name recognition. Look no further than the recent Iowa caucus polls conducted by Monmouth University and the New Hampshire primaries by St. Anselm College. Both were conducted after two difficult weeks for Biden, while he was accused of being hit.
Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts all have almost universal name recognition in both states. Do they have the same support in the polls? No.
Biden has a clear lead over Sanders and Warren in both polls. In the Iowa survey, it is 27% ahead of Sanders, 16% higher than Warren's, by 7%. In the poll in New Hampshire, Biden is up 23%, against 16% for Sanders and 9% for Warren.
The top positions of Go West and Biden, according to Quinnipiac University's recent survey of primary preferences in California. Biden, at 26%, beats Sanders, 18%, and Senator Kamala Harris of California, 16%. In other words, the former vice president beats the man who got 46% of the main vote in the California presidential election in 2016 and a very well-known senator in her own backyard.
You can also look at the national scale. Biden and Sanders have pretty much the same name. Since the beginning of the year, Biden has averaged about 30% in preferential polls. Sanders recorded an average of about 20%, which corresponds to a post-announcement increase. Warren, the only other candidate whose name was more than 80% recognized, averaged one-digit average.
Indeed, when you nominate the various candidates by their recognized name in Iowa, New Hampshire and nationwide, you see that Biden is doing better than expected given the recognition of his name in the three competitions. The only other candidate for whom this is true? South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
The fact that Biden is able to do this despite the bad media is also probably a sign, it's not just a name recognition for him. He remains well liked by the voters.
2. Candidates for Biden's position often win
We must be cautious when interpreting data from an early survey. We have about 10 months left before the Iowa caucuses. Many things can change.
Caution does not mean referral, however. As Nate Cohn, of The New York Times noted, "Biden would be a serious candidate for 2020 if the past was a reliable guide." Now, Cohn rightly offers the warning that some recent elections have shown that being ahead in polls at this stage is not a guarantee of victory. Nevertheless, it should be noted that Donald Trump had been named in the polls well before the analysts (such as yours).
The current 30% of Biden at the national level should not be taken lightly. Examine a 2011 analysis by FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on the first primary polls of previous years. When a candidate recognized by his or her name averages an average of 30% in surveys during the first semester of the year preceding the primary, said candidate has two chances out of five to win the nomination. Biden has averaged about 30% each month since the beginning of the year, despite the growing number of candidates hired.
A 2 in 5 shot is far from a sure thing. In fact, it corresponds to what I said above: Biden will probably not win the nomination.
That said, in a field that is likely to end up north of 20 candidates, a candidate who has a chance out of two (after the ballot) should be considered a favorite.
3. Biden's coalition makes sense
If Biden was ahead because he was winning the votes of "very liberal", what would have been awarded to him because of the recognition of his name would make a lot more sense. Biden, after all, has a fairly moderate record (especially compared to the standards of the current Democratic Party).
Biden, however, wins without the support of very liberal Democrats. It averaged only 11% of the very liberal Quinnipiac polls in California, St. Anselm in New Hampshire and the latest Quinnipiac national poll. He was in third or fourth place among the very liberal in all these investigations.
Instead, Biden is up thanks to his support among the moderates / conservatives. It averaged 35% with this group on these three surveys. He also scored 35% among this group in the Monmouth poll in Iowa. (A poll that did not provide a cross-tab for very liberal voters.) In all of these polls, he had 15 points or more ahead of his nearest competitor among the moderate / conservative crowd. In all but one country, he had at least 20 points or more ahead of his nearest competitor.
Biden's advance among moderate voters is in line not only with his vote record, but also with the general orientation of the candidates this year. Most of the leading candidates run left, leaving a gaping void on the moderate side of the party. Biden is the only candidate in the top six (Biden, Buttigieg, Harris, former Texas representative, Beto O 'Rourke, Sanders and Warren) who is doing his best among moderate / conservative voters. The others are doing everything possible among the very liberal.
This leaves Biden in an enviable position, as the moderates / conservatives make up about half of the party. He fights for a larger part of the party than the other candidates who divide the very liberal wing, significantly smaller.
This suggests that Biden has a hard head, unless someone can appeal to the more moderate wing of the party.
Of course, we can be ahead of ourselves. Biden is not even in the running. The softness of his support will only become evident if / once he comes into play.
