Joe Biden’s victory becomes more decisive every day as the votes are counted

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President-elect Biden will likely get more than 5 million votes ahead of Trump in the popular vote when the whole tally is over. He will get around 80 million votes or more – by far the most presidential candidates in history.

In the Electoral College, Biden appears to be on track to win 306 electoral votes. This represents around 57% of all available electoral votes and will be good enough for a margin of 74 electoral votes over the incumbent president.

And let’s be clear, the chance of a recount reversing results in 2020 is basically nothing. Fairvote has looked at statewide recounts since 2000. The average change in votes was just 430 votes and 0.02 points. The largest voice change was just under 2,600 and 0.11 points.

All of Biden’s benefits are considerably greater than that currently. In other words, Trump would need multiple recounts to see the voting movement when it simply hasn’t happened in the past 20 years.

Indeed, Trump would need at least one recount to move the margin over 0.62 points and 20,000 votes (Biden’s current margin in Wisconsin) to win. It just isn’t possible outside of divine intervention for Trump. The idea of ​​Trump reversing the result in Michigan, where his supporters want a recount and his advantage is around 150,000 and just under 3 points, is laughable.

The bottom line is that Biden won this election and it’s not particularly close.

Most of the challengers of incumbent presidents don’t win, let alone have such a clear victory. In the past century, only four other challengers have beaten the incumbent presidents. The only three who scored a bigger Electoral College victory than Biden expected were Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, Ronald Reagan in 1980, and Bill Clinton in 1992.

Biden’s popular vote victory is even greater. Once all the votes are counted (and there are plenty of them in circulation), Biden is likely to win between 51% and 52% of the popular vote. The only challenger to have achieved a higher percentage over the past century was Roosevelt in 1932.

Looking at more recent history, you may recall that Trump loved to brag about his 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton. He spoke about it several times at rallies and even carried a card of his electoral victory.

Biden’s victory was equal to or greater than Trump’s, depending on how you look at it. Biden is likely to win contests with the same number of electoral votes (306) that Trump got. Trump, of course, didn’t even get a plurality of the popular vote, let alone a majority. Biden got a majority, and he did so as a challenger. Defeating a starter is considerably more difficult than winning a race without a candidate showing up again.

So what’s stopping Trump from conceding? We can’t say for sure, although it is quite unusual from a historical perspective.

There were six other elections (1948, 1960, 1968, 1976, 2012 and 2016) where the winner of the Electoral College got a similar share of electoral votes (57% +/- 5 points) that Biden is likely to get. All six had already conceded on this point after the election. In fact, everyone threw in the towel the day after the election.

This includes Thomas Dewey in 1948, which is perhaps the best historical analogy with Trump. The winner of this election (Harry Truman) got roughly the same share of electoral votes and was leading by a similar share in the popular vote. And like Biden this election, Truman won a number of states by less than a point. That didn’t stop Dewey from congratulating Truman on his victory.

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