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Joe Douglas can borrow the Jets’ offseason title from NBA superstar LeBron James. This is Douglas’ decision.
The 44-year-old general manager won’t make his announcement on a prime-time TV special, but he must determine who his quarterback will be for 2021, and possibly beyond, in the coming weeks. Will Douglas stay with Sam Darnold for a fourth season, hoping a new coaching staff and better supporting cast will help him improve? Will he draft a No.2 quarterback overall and trade Darnold? The decision is so layered and can be viewed in so many ways that it makes the most compelling appeal for an executive and a franchise in recent New York sports history.
“It’s the biggest decision of his career,” said former NFL quarterback and ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky. “It’s probably the Jets’ biggest decision in, I don’t know, 40 years. It’s enormous.
If you’re wrong, the Jets will be looking for a new GM in a few years. Do that right and Douglas will be on the verge of bringing the Jets back from the wilderness they have wandered into for the past decade.
The decision has several levels to consider. For our purposes, let’s set aside the possibility of negotiating for Texas star Deshaun Watson, who at the moment still seems unlikely. Let’s focus on Darnold versus college quarterbacks, led by Zach Wilson of BYU.
The Darnold debate
The Jets drafted No.3 Darnold overall in 2018 with hopes of finding their franchise quarterback. Instead, he’s been a confusing player. There are moments of shine interspersed with more games that make you scratch your head. Injuries and illnesses cost him 10 games and kept him from playing a full season.
The debate now raging on radio and Twitter Jets about Darnold is also unfolding within the organization. There are some who see untapped potential that has been held back by a surrounding poor cast. Others are ready to move on.
It is impossible to defend Darnold using statistics. Since 2018, 42 quarterbacks have thrown at least 500 passes. Darnold’s QB rating of 78.6 is 41st out of those 42s. Only Josh Rosen’s 63.5 is lower. Darnold has been intercepted 39 times, the fifth pick in the past three years.
On the other side of the debate, people are pointing out that Darnold won’t be 24 until June and hasn’t received much help in his career. Robert Saleh would be his third head coach in four years. Mike LaFleur would be his third offensive coordinator. The franchise has been shaky since Darnold’s arrival. The general manager who drafted him, Mike Maccagnan, was fired after Darnold’s first season.
Then there is the talent around him – or the lack of talent. Darnold played with an ever-changing cast of players. That’s the number of different starters he’s played with in each offensive position: 15 wide receivers, nine tight ends, seven forwarders, seven left guards, five right guards, five right tackles, four crosses and four left tackles. Of these 56 players, none have made a Pro Bowl as a Jet.
Darnold’s coaching is also in question. Former head coach Adam Gase’s offense has finished last in the NFL in total yards in each of the past two years. Gase, who was hired to bring out the best in Darnold, admitted he failed the quarterback. Darnold has had a passer rating of 100 or more in seven games during his career. Four of them arrived in his rookie season, three in 2019 and none last year, when he appeared to be regressing.
This leads to the question of how much better Darnold can be in LaFleur’s offense and whether Douglas can improve the offense through free will and the draft this year which would give pro-Darnold folks hope. .
“I think he’s been put in tough situations to develop at times,” said Matt Bowen, who played seven seasons in the NFL and is now an ESPN analyst. “When you have several head coaches, several players, when you have a list around you that is lacking in talent, it is sometimes difficult to assess. You have to go back to the lines. I think Sam Darnold has some high profile traits in this position. The question for the Jets is, will these traits fit in with LaFleur’s offense? Which, in my opinion, is one of the best offenses in the NFL. “
Saleh and LaFleur bring Kyle Shanahan’s attack with them from San Francisco. This is considered a quarterback friendly offense due to the emphasis on movement, play-action and deployments. Darnold has always been good on the move, and the LaFleur offense could maximize that. There are a lot of coaches and executives around the NFL who privately agree with Bowen and still see the superstar potential in Darnold and believe that in the right offense he can realize his potential.
Another factor in the Darnold decision, however, is finances. Darnold has a year left on his $ 4.6 million rookie deal. There is also a fifth year option for 2022, which is $ 18.9 million. The Jets are unlikely to choose this option. If they stay with Darnold, that means they should either move on after this year or sign him with an overtime. If they draft a quarterback, however, they would start over with a quarterback on his rookie contract and at least five years of team control.
Many in the league believe the Jets could get a second-round pick for Darnold in addition to a mid-round pick this year or next.
“If you’re going to sit here and tell me we’re going to take a quarterback because we think he’s going to be as good as Sam Darnold, if not better, in the next three years and that resets our financial calendar, I can’t just sit here and say, ‘No, that’s stupid,’ especially with financial flexibility, ‘Orlovsky said. “But I also know this: if you take a quarterback and he just gets OK and Sam Darnold goes somewhere else and plays well, woo, good luck.”
College option
It would have been simple if the 2020 Jets hadn’t won two games in December. We would talk about Trevor Lawrence, the must-have kid, No. 1 overall. Instead, the image of the quarterback at No.2 is cloudier.
There is no Consensus # 2 quarterback in this draft. BYU’s Zach Wilson has gained the most momentum since the end of the season, but he’s also played a cupcake calendar. Justin Fields of Ohio State might have the most impressive features. North Dakota State’s Trey Lance is a bit of a mystery after just one game last season and 17 overall in college. Mac Jones of Alabama won many games with the Crimson Tide, but had an All-Star team around him.
The Jets draft committee will stack up with those four quarterbacks … and one more.
“I would put Sam Darnold on the scoreboard,” Bowen said. “I would say where do we grade it based on his university and professional band?” If you rate him higher than Wilson and Fields, you stick with him. It’s that simple. If you don’t, then you move it.
The Jets also need to assess what else they can do with the # 2 pick if they keep Darnold. They could trade it in for a draft pick package to a team that fell in love with one of the quarterbacks. They could take the best non-quarterback in the draft to help Darnold. It could be a wide receiver like LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase or Alabama’s DeVonta Smith, or it could be Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell to team up with last year’s first-round pick Mekhi. Becton.
“I have never been a huge fan of Darnold. It’s a turnover machine. That’s what he is, ”said Dan Shonka, a longtime NFL scout who is now the general manager of OurLads scouting services. “But that being said, I think if I were Joe Douglas I would write Penei Sewell in this place. Now you have a few bookend tackles as long as Becton can hold out. “
Shonka is not as high on Wilson as the others. Wilson has skyrocketed in the media editorial boards over the past two months. Former NFL quarterback Chris Simms even noted it on Lawrence last week. Shonka has reservations about the BYU quarterback, who beat on a weak schedule in 2020. He ranked him as the No.5 quarterback behind Lawrence, Jones, Fields and Lance. Shonka also questions Wilson’s durability due to his lightweight 6-foot-3, 210-pound frame and the fact that he has had shoulder surgery in the past.
“You hear the herd mentality over there with Zach Wilson,” Shonka said. “I want to tell you that Zach Wilson might not hold up in the National Football League. He’s a narrow-shouldered guy. He’s a very precise guy, smart, good anticipation and all that. But he’s not really a big guy.
Orlovsky is a bigger fan of Wilson, who he says has traits he says will transfer to the NFL.
“Wilson plays a FOMO style of football – the fear of missing out,” Orlovsky said. “He made me say, ‘Holy fudge’ more than any tape quarterback this year. There is a lot to like about his game. He has fast hands. He reminds me [former MLB star] Omar Vizquel. He’s crazy fast with his hands.
Fields’ trajectory was the opposite of Wilson’s. His popularity peaked in the college football playoff semifinals with his performance against Clemson. If the draft had taken place the next day, he would have been the No.2 pick. But his game has been separated since then.
“I think Fields is incredibly talented. It’s deliberate, ”Orlovsky said. “You have to know if he’s going to develop from that because being deliberate in the NFL isn’t good right now. For an incredibly athletic guy, he doesn’t play very fast. Are you convinced he will?
Bowen believes that part of the deliberate nature of the Fields game is due to the Ohio State offense which involved deeper and longer development routes. He argues that Fields often waited for the receiver, rather than dealing slowly.
Bowen said Fields has skills that cannot be taught.
“Traits matter,” Bowen said. “They must matter because you cannot create them.”
Lance and Jones both have supporters, but seem less likely to be candidates for the Jets at No.2.
The final decision
Douglas has to make his call now in one of the trickiest offseason ever to assess the outlook. He won’t be able to have private training sessions or even have dinner with the college players. He’ll be competing in Pro Days, starting with Lance’s Friday, and talking to scouts and coaches on his way to make the call that will define the near – and possibly long-term – future of the Jets.
Douglas has been at work for 21 months. The following month before and after the first round on April 29 could be what defines his legacy with the Jets.
“I always think general managers put their stamp on their football team,” Bowen said. “Joe Douglas hasn’t done that yet. So what is it going to be? I think that’s it. That’s what the ruling will mean. ”
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