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Hello, I hope your Monday is going well, and I hope you enjoyed your weekend. I know I enjoyed my Sunday because after a stressful week I declared it a #SelfCareSunday. You are probably wondering what that entails. It wasn’t a trip to a spa, or a bubble bath, or anything like that. No, I just chose not to watch the Chicago Bears.
In fact, I completely avoided the first window of NFL games. Instead, I watched my favorite Italian soccer team (Napoli) win their game 1-0, and when that ended my favorite English soccer team (Aston Villa) beat the tar of the Pete Blackburn’s Arsenal 3-0 (hi, Pete!). After I finished celebrating those wins, I checked my phone, looked past the 50 Angry Bears Messages sent by friends, and saw that my bets had won as well.
I then ended the day by winning my sub-bet in the Saints-Buccaneers match. In other words, #SelfCareSunday has been a smash hit, and I think I’ll try again next week. Then when the NFL season is over, I’ll cash these bears to miss the future playoffs that I told you to take a few weeks ago. As for the coming week, it is busy. We have football every night of the week and the Masters starts on Thursday.
Let’s catch up on today’s news before diving into tonight’s thrilling contest between the Patriots and the Jets – with some incidental bets.
Are you ready for football?
All Eastern Time and All Odds via William Hill Sportsbook
? The hot ticket
Patriots at the Jets, 8:15 PM | Television: ESPN
The choice: under 42 (-110): Are you ready to be bored with your mind? Strange as it sounds, the Jets won’t be the only lousy football team on your TV tonight. The Patriots enter this game on a four-game losing streak, averaging just 12.25 points per game in those losses. Cam Newton no longer looks like a steal at $ 1.75 million for the season, and the Patriots’ offense is without Julian Edelman. The only way the Patriots can consistently move the ball tonight is the running tandem of Newton and Damien Harris. Of course, while Harris is expected to play, a knee injury that flagged him on the injury report leaves his status in question. Whoever plays, the Patriots are likely to rely on the run.
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It’s not bad news for the Jets. As bad as they are, New York ranks third in the NFL in terms of defensive race success rate behind Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. The Jets defense is 10th in the league in the DVOA race. It’s their passing defense that you want to exploit, but I don’t know how capable this group of patriots is.
As for the Jets’ offense, it has been a mess and will be even worse with Joe Flacco starting in place of Sam Darnold. At 42 points, that would be the 11th lowest total of the 2020 NFL season so far. The Patriots and Jets were involved in five of the top 10 because they stink! Trust them to keep doing it tonight.
Key trend: The under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings of these division rivals.
Here’s what SportsLine says about the game: RJ White is on a 31-21 run in the NFL and he has a strong game on Thursday night football.
? Accessories
Pick: Braxton Berrios Under 22.5 yards on reception (-115) – While it hasn’t been made official, Darnold is listed as questionable and Flacco is expected to start for the Jets. It’s good news for our sub-game, but it’s bad news for Braxton Berrios. Flacco has never been the QB who takes the roads below. He’s a big-armed quarterback who likes to shoot on the pitch, which isn’t Berrios’ specialty. We saw this in Flacco’s two departures earlier this season. Berrios was targeted six times in those two games, but caught just one 18-yard pass in a 24-0 loss to the Dolphins.
The choice: Denzel Mims More than 30.5 yards on reception (-120) – Berrios will suffer while playing with Flacco, but Denzel Mims presents himself as a player who could benefit. Mims wasn’t active in Flacco’s first two starts, but it’s the kind of vertical threat Flacco has long enjoyed throwing. I would expect Bill Belichick to be Bill Belichick, he will focus on eliminating Jamison Crowder from the Jets offense tonight which will only open up more chances for Mims. He’s going to have goals, and he could exceed that total on any of them.
The choice: no hitting jets (+375) – That probably won’t happen, but there is just too much value here to pass up the game. This team has scored 10 points in Flacco’s first two starts. On the season, this offense died last in the NFL with 1.0 points scored per possession. They’ve scored touchdowns on just 8% of their possessions this season and even when this team comes into the red zone they can’t finish. The Jets have scored a touchdown on just 25% of their 16 red zone possessions (one lowest in the league). In go-to-go situations, they only scored touchdowns 40% of the time! This offense is horrible! Let’s bet against that!
? SportsLine pick of the day: Masters Week has begun and Mike McClure’s golf model loves six players, including four long shots of 60-1 or more! Mike is up over $ 11,000 on golf betting since the PGA Tour restarted.
? The DFS Rundown
Your MVP or Captain
Cam Newton – Look, if you want to play around with the idea of making one of the kickers in this game your MVP, I don’t think that would be the worst idea. I wouldn’t do it in cash, however. Instead, I would go for the obvious choice even though it isn’t the most appealing, but nothing in this game is. Cam returned to Earth after a hot start to the season, but while he doesn’t do much as a passer, his ability to rush provides a fantastic stable floor. He’s averaged about 50 rushing yards per game this season and has six rushing touchdowns.
Lottery ticket
Ryan Izzo – Where to find value when there is very little to find? Unannounced tight ends can sometimes happen. It’s a long game for big tournaments. If you are playing cash, I would stay as chalky as possible and choose either kicker over Izzo to spend elsewhere. But, if you’re looking for a lottery ticket, Izzo might cash in. He’s been shot seven times in the last three games and caught six passes for 70 yards. Maybe he’s peaking in the red zone tonight when everyone expects Cam to keep him.
Advice on the full range
SportsLine’s DFS Insider Team has you covered for everyday fantasy sports. Mike McClure made nearly $ 2 million playing DFS, and Jacob Gibbs was ranked as one of the nation’s most accurate fantasy experts last year. Plus, use SportsLine’s brand new DFS Optimizer to get optimal NFL DFS selections from 10,000 simulations.
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