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When Spotify decided to try and become the world’s largest podcasting platform, it knew it needed a nuclear weapon: Joe Rogan. The comedian who has become a podcasting icon has become essential and a force in the industry. He’s hosted legitimate politicians like Bernie Sanders and wannabes like Kanye West, smoked a joint with Elon Musk, and chatted with huge celebrities like Dave Chappelle and Miley Cyrus. With a reported reach of over 200 million monthly downloads in 2019, Rogan is one of the largest, if not the largest – podcaster in the world.
Spotify was hoping it would bring a large chunk of that audience with it when it signs exclusively on the platform in 2020 as part of a $ 100 million deal, giving it the reach and power to take the lead. control of the podcasting industry. Although Spotify has not given specific numbers on Rogan’s audience since his arrival, he has repeatedly bragged about his success. The company confirmed that he quickly became the platform’s biggest podcaster after hopping on Spotify. It “spurred the addition of new users, activated first-time podcast listeners and [has] resulted in favorable engagement trends, including vodcast consumption, “the company wrote in a February 2021 earnings release. In April, it said Rogan’s show had” exceeded expectations “in terms of is about adding new users to the platform and engaging.
However, a new data survey by The edge finds that the powerful podcaster’s influence has waned since going behind Spotify’s wall. His show declined as a vehicle of hype for guests, and Rogan’s presence as a mainstay in the news fell apart.
Since Spotify doesn’t share how many plays each podcast has, nor how many unique listeners who log on regularly, we instead looked at a secondary metric: how much of a promotional boost Rogan gives his guests. To do this, we pulled data from the Social Blade analytics tool to track the Twitter follow of every guest who participated in Rogan’s podcast between December 2019 and July 2021. Guests typically see a wave of new subscribers afterwards. appearing on the show, some gaining as many as 18,000 new subscribers within a week of their discussion, and this effect increased over time The Joe Rogan Experience gained popularity. While we can’t attribute every new follower to Rogan – guests may have been on a media tour to promote a new movie or book, for example – the bump after a Rogan appearance is constant.
We found that before going exclusive, from December 2019 through November 2020, Rogan’s guests could expect to gain around 4,000 Twitter followers within a week of their episode’s premiere. After going exclusive, that number halved to around 2,000, suggesting a drop in listeners. To isolate the effect, we focused on people who had less than 500,000 subscribers on Rogan’s show, as bigger names – someone like Dave Chappelle or Elon Musk – were likely to attract more. attention to Rogan than the other way around.
You can see all of our findings below. We plotted the average number of subscribers gained month by month. The drop doesn’t seem monumental, due to the presence of a few outlier months, but overall you can see that after Rogan’s switch to exclusivity, his guests are gaining fewer followers on average. Even the best months as a Spotify-exclusive show only rival the worst months when its show was widely available.
We also tried looking at this for Instagram, but Social Blade only had data on about half of the guests, which isn’t enough to create a full picture of the trends. (Nonetheless, we have seen that the number of followers gained on Instagram has significantly decreased for those available.)
There could be various explanations for the decline of several months. People may be listening to fewer podcasts after the pandemic, or Rogan fans could have accidentally stopped using Twitter. But the timing of the drop still matches his move to the Spotify exclusive, suggesting Rogan has lost dedicated listeners. Presumably, the people who acted out after an episode and actually followed the guests were his most committed. Now there are probably fewer of them.
You can see the same story unfold in more detail by watching guests who have been on the show multiple times. Comedian Andrew Santino, who has appeared on Rogan’s show nine times over the years, has appeared twice in 2019, once in 2020, and then once in 2021. Those first two appearances in 2019 have earned him over 1,100 subscribers each. That gain grew to nearly 1,700 subscribers in 2020. But in 2021, when Rogan was exclusive to Spotify, the number of subscribers he added dropped by almost half, to less than 900., Santino won. 1,173 subscribers alone, so Rogan gave it a bump of 500 more subscribers the following week. In April 2021, he gained 772 followers the week before his appearance – Rogan only gave him a bump of 116 people.)
We can see a similar trajectory unfold with three other guests. Comedian Annie Lederman saw an almost 50% drop in her last guest appearance, as did podcaster and author Michael Malice. Comedian Mark Normand has done it too, with a drop of more than 50% from his last appearance in January 2021.
Despite the likely loss of listeners on his switch to Spotify, Rogan’s show still seems to reach more people than in previous years. Podcaster Bret Weinstein, for example, appeared on the show in February 2018, June 2020 and June 2021. He gained around 22,000 subscribers in June 2020, a significant jump from the roughly 4,000 he gained in 2018. In June 2021 he gained 18,000 which is still a drop but not as big as the ones we see in January or April.
Rogan’s reach could be declining for a number of reasons. The show benefited from posting full episodes to YouTube, which typically received millions of views each and often led to viral clips on other platforms, like Twitter. But the YouTube channel now only hosts clips, which don’t always hit the million-view mark. Rogan also had visibility in other podcasting apps, which is important because not everyone uses Spotify. It’s possible that social media algorithms, and YouTube in particular, have also helped Rogan and his guests gain audiences.
Spotify declined to comment on this report or offer any figures on Rogan’s performance. Rogan’s team did not respond to a request for comment.
But this lack of scope also has an effect on Rogan’s broader relevance. Data from Google Trends shows searches for his name increased steadily in 2020, with interest remaining relatively high throughout the year. As soon as it became exclusive, however, that research plunged. This could be because people were looking for Rogan’s name to find his episodes, but it could also be that inside Spotify, his controversial comments – often causing spikes in interest around Rogan. – do not reach as many ears.
In 2021, the peaks of interest around Rogan are much less numerous and far apart. One of the biggest happened in April when he discouraged young adults from getting vaccinated against COVID-19, a testament to the importance these controversial moments have on Rogan’s reach and ability. to generate wider interest. While these controversies enhance its relevance, they often put Spotify in the position of having to defend its star talent.
We can also see this on Rogan’s YouTube channel. When posting entire episodes on his YouTube page, Rogan averaged around 265,000 subscribers per month during the year before going exclusive, according to data from Social Blade. After going exclusive in December 2020, that number has dropped to around 100,000 per month. This shows how exclusivity limits the reach and potential impact of the stars of these shows. (For reference, YouTube’s biggest stars, like Pewdiepie, grew by millions of subscribers per month, despite tens of millions more subscribers than Rogan, so Rogan would likely have continued to grow at a faster rate. ‘he had continued to post full episodes on the platform.)
Meanwhile, many Rogan fans aren’t happy with the exclusive change. When The Joe Rogan Experience went from something people could find on most podcast apps – other than Spotify – and YouTube, to a show only available on Spotify, people got confused, upset, and pretended to be stepping down as listeners.
“For the past three years, listening to JRE was my healing ritual that relaxed and entertained me whenever I felt tired and hopeless, the only healthy voice I could listen to without any ulterior motives from corporate media. (I even started using Youtube Premium just to listen to JRE without being bothered by ads), ”one person wrote on Reddit in December 2020, claiming that Spotify is not available in their country, but YouTube is. . “Now I have to look for illegal downloads and deal with what’s left on the Youtube channel, which might be deleted in the future. ”
Another person said they listen less now than it’s on Spotify. “I don’t know what it is, maybe YouTube feels more open and intuitive, but I find myself listening to A LOT less,” they wrote in January. “I just haven’t been able to do it that much with Spotify. Maybe it’s the missing comments section? Maybe it’s a problem with me?
In short, The edgeThe data results suggest that Rogan has lost its impact and relevance since becoming exclusive to Spotify. A significant portion of his audience probably didn’t follow him when he took the leap.
Even still, Spotify continued to make exclusive deals with big names. Most recently, he signed Alex Cooper from Call her daddy and Dax Shepard from Chair expert, who, if Rogan is any indicator, will likely see their listener base decline. For Spotify, however, the offers could be worth the trade-off if people migrate to its app and sell ads against those programs. For podcasters who receive multi-million dollar offers, the money traded might be enough to make up for the delay in relevance. At least until the end of their contracts.
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