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I’ve been studying the NFL Draft since 1979 and have seen a lot of quarterbacks. Some great, some terrible. Some first-round picks that made the Hall of Fame and some of the top 10 picks that were full busts.
So when I was asked recently where Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence made in the top-ranked quarterbacks I’ve ever studied, I just said, “He’s up there.” I really wanted to dig in, though, and check his rating against the rest of mine over the past 40 years. The following below are the top 10 quarterbacks on this list, based on my pre-draft ranks. It doesn’t reflect their performance in the NFL, but rather where I wrote them down the day before their respective drafts.
You’ll notice that this roster and order is slightly different from where I did something similar in 2011. That’s because I added Andrew Luck from class 2012, plus a quarterback who still plays at the # 10. And when I went back to it through my notes and my scouting reports, I discovered that the 2011 list wasn’t quite accurate because it used a few scouting reports from March versus to my last April screening reports. Don’t worry, though – I’m not hiding how great I was on a few legendary busts, as you’ll see below.
Let’s take a look at my top-rated quarterbacks since 1979, and I’ll include snippets from my final scouting reports, quick notes on how their careers ended and where Lawrence fits in the 2021 class:
Draft class: 1983
Take: No. 1 overall, Denver Broncos
What I wrote at the time: Perhaps the best assessment of his talents came from Cardinals coach Paul Wiggin, who said: “He has the confidence and the field instinct of John Brodie, the special human qualities of Archie Manning and the physical attributes of Terry Bradshaw. “In my final evaluation, Elway received the highest marks achievable in all categories. He has no noticeable weaknesses and is the prototype QB. Without a doubt Elway is an All-Pro NFL QB at don’t miss out who has the ability to make a place for himself in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. “
Career Notes: Elway started 231 games for the Broncos and won two Super Bowls to close his 16-year NFL career. His 300 career touchdown passes rank 12th all-time. He entered the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2004.
Draft class: 2012
Take: No. 1 overall, Indianapolis Colts
What I wrote at the time: “Luck has it all – size, incredible intelligence, precision and a great work ethic. I compare him a lot to Peyton Manning, but luck is more athletic. For this reason, the expectations for luck will be through the roof. He has the broad lineup to deal with that kind of pressure and continue to enjoy a career that lives up to all the hype. “
Career Notes: Luck had four Pro Bowls in his seven-year career before retiring abruptly ahead of the 2019 season. He was named the 2018 NFL Comeback Player of the Year after missing the entire 2017 season with injury. . He ended his career with 171 touchdown passes and 83 interceptions.
Draft class: 1998
Take: No. 1 overall, Indianapolis Colts
What I wrote at the time: “He won’t provide the added dimension of a Steve Young, but I can’t think of a player I would rather have under center leading my football team in combat. With free agency, teams change personnel every day. The need for consistency and leadership at QB is more critical than ever. Manning will win and win big at the professional level, provided of course he gets the necessary help from his teammates and the organization. “
Career Notes: Manning threw 28 interceptions as a rookie, but then settled into an elite quarterback. He’s been named a seven-time first-team All-Pro, five-time regular-season MVP, and won two Super Bowl titles, one with the Colts and one with the Broncos. He will enter the Hall of Fame in the 2021 class later this year.
Draft class: 2021
Draft screening report: “Lawrence is the best prospect in this class. He is going to No. 1 in the Jaguars and will have a chance to lead this franchise’s turnaround alongside coach Urban Meyer. He has everything NFL teams want in. a starting quarterback, size to harness talent to the ability to process reads and throw the right shot. Lawrence ended his career at Clemson with 108 total TDs (18 rushing) and just 17 interceptions in three seasons. “
Lawrence underwent surgery to repair the damage to the labrum in his left shoulder last month. He told ESPN’s Stephania Bell that his rehab was going better than expected and that he should be ready for training camp in July.
Draft class: 1983
Take: No. 14 overall, Buffalo Bills
What I wrote at the time: “Kelly has amassed some impressive stats over the course of his career and as John Elway has played against some very tough competition (six bowl teams in 1981). Outside of Elway, Kelly is the most gifted QB to come out of college. This season. The transition to professional football should be smooth. He would have been one of the first five players drafted had he not been injured, but he should still go to the middle of the first round, depending on the result tests on the shoulder near the draft day. I have a feeling that in three years, Kelly will be one of the best QBs in the NFL. “
Career Notes: Kelly rejected Bills for the upstart USFL, playing two seasons for the Houston Gamblers. He joined Buffalo in 1986 and played 11 seasons for the Bills, guiding them to four straight Super Bowls. He was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2002.
Draft class: 1990
Take: No. 7 overall, Detroit Lions
What I wrote at the time: “The leadership qualities he possesses, along with his intelligence, composure and overall presence are a key factor in achieving such a high rating. I could go on and on about his qualities as a player and as a person, but I need space for other prospects. Should be the first QB selected in a draft, he’s so good! In fact, if he goes to the right team, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him lead his club in the Super Bowl early in his professional career. Even if he doesn’t, you can be reasonably certain that he will enjoy a successful career, earning top honors throughout his time in the NFL. “
Career Notes: Ware has only made six starts in four seasons in the NFL, throwing five touchdown passes and eight picks. Rodney Peete was the Lions’ favorite starter under coach Wayne Fontes.
Draft class: 1993
Take: No. 1 overall, New England Patriots
What I wrote at the time: “I praise his skill level and raw potential since he entered the WSU campus in 1990, and nothing has changed since to dampen my enthusiasm. Like all young, mature QBs, he needs to develop a little more touching. No QB in college football, either this year or in the years to come, can touch Bledsoe in terms of raw physical potential. That is why he ranks as the No. 1 player of my ranking and is clearly the most coveted draft prospect. “
Career Notes: Bledsoe had a great career, but he’s now perhaps best known as the guy who lost his starting job to Tom Brady – and Brady became the greatest quarterback ever. Bledsoe took the Patriots to the Super Bowl in 1996, and he also started games for the Cowboys and Bills after leaving New England. He threw 251 touchdown passes in his career.
8. Ryan Leaf, Washington State
Draft class: 1998
Take: No. 2 overall, San Diego Chargers
What I wrote at the time: “Physically he always had what it took to be one of the first players to be selected. However, it was his attention to detail last summer and his willingness to spend time on the training ground that won ‘pushed to the top in terms of development. in a full QB. Leaf is the guy who single-handedly can put a team in the win column, which professionally is the ultimate sign of greatness. “
Career Notes: Leaf vs. Manning was a huge debate in 1998, and the Colts made the right choice with the first pick. Leaf has had a dismal career, ranging from 4 to 17 in his starting career in the NFL. He was released by the Chargers after three “turbulent” seasons. “With Ryan there were too many issues off the field that I should have paid more attention to,” former Chargers general manager Bobby Beathard said years later. Leaf ended his career with 14 touchdown passes and 36 picks.
Draft class: 1989
Take: No. 1 overall, Dallas Cowboys
What I wrote at the time: “Aikman has exceptional physical / athletic talent, weighing less than 4.7 at almost 220 pounds. He throws everything with his ear, using his quick release to avoid possible sacks. His mobility is a real plus, him. allowing pocket movement, ball throwing.with precision while rolling to one side or the other. He ranks as a super blue shredder capable of turning a cellar dweller into a contender at the start of his professional career However, like all young QBs, he will need time to hone his skills at a professional level and will put him at a somewhat disadvantage due to the fact that he does not have the overall experience of former stars such as John. Elway, Dan Marino, Jim Kelly and Vinny Testaverde, having only really played two full years at the college level. “
Career Notes: Aikman went 0-11 as a starter as a rookie, but he and the Cowboys turned the tide. He won three Super Bowl titles and formed six Pro Bowl teams in 12 seasons. He was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2006.
Draft class: 2018
Take: No. 7 overall, Buffalo Bills
What I wrote at the time: “Allen crushed the pre-draft process and is in the mix to be the No.1 pick. He’s shown improvement in the Senior Bowl and in the combine, and he’s got a high cap. Allen is super gross but can really His numbers weren’t great in 2016 (28 touchdown passes, 15 interceptions while completing 56% of his passes), and his numbers weren’t great in 2017 (16 touchdown passes, six interceptions while completing 56, 3% of his passes)), but NFL teams will take into account the talent around him. The Wyoming offense lost 47 touchdowns from the 2016 team, as well as its center. I think the numbers d ‘Allen will be much better in an NFL offense with NFL players filming together in the Cowboys’ win in the Bowl, throwing three touchdown passes in the first half, even while recovering from an injury to the bowl. ‘shoulder. “
Career Notes: Allen broke in third year at Buffalo, completing 69.2% of his passes and throwing 37 touchdown passes with just 10 picks. He finished second in the MVP vote while leading the Bills to the AFC title game. Allen, who turns 25 this summer, has made his way into the NFL’s top callers.
Next on the list
The notes are all extremely similar here, but here’s which is next, in no order:
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