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The candidates, former Vice President Joe Biden and US Senator Kamala Harris, will step onto the stage on the second night of the second US presidential debate in 2020, in Detroit, Michigan on July 31, 2019. .
Rebecca Cook | Reuters
In all the ups and downs of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, Joe Biden consistently outperformed the peloton in the polls.
The former vice president led almost all investigations, both at the national level and at the beginning of the states. His support declined after the first democratic debate in late June, and then stabilized in recent weeks.
Until now, Biden has demonstrated his ability to stay at the top of a scrambled Democratic group even as the poll results of his rivals grew and dwindled. Senator Kamala Harris, D-Calif., Witnessed radical changes: she rose from fourth to second in the national average of RealClearPolitics polls after a first positive debate, then returned to fourth place.
The polls can not say as much as early in the race, because many things can happen by the first nomination contest in February. Nevertheless, the polls provide an overview of the current situation and its evolution. Support for Harris was reported, while neither Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., Nor Senator Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., Succeeded in placing themselves clearly in second place.
State polls may be a better indicator of which candidates may win the nomination, as no primary vote will be held at the national level.
Here is the last average of the recent national polls conducted by RealClearPolitics:
- Biden: 29% (-3 since August 1st)
- Warren: 15.8% (+1 since August 1st)
- Sanders: 15.4% (-1 since August 1st)
- Harris: 7.4% (-3.6 since August 1st)
- South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg: 4.6% (-1 since August 1st)
- Former representative Beto O & # 39; Rourke: 3.4% (+0.4 since August 1st)
- Senator Cory Booker, D-N.J .: 2.2% (+0.6 since August 1st)
- Entrepreneur Andrew Yang: 2% (+0.4 since August 1st)
- Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii: 1.4% (+0.4 since August 1st)
- Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro: 1.4% (+0.4 since August 1st)
Biden also enjoyed a steady advantage in the polls in the states that run the first nominations: Iowa (February 3), New Hampshire (February 11), Nevada (February 22) and South Carolina (February 29). His lead in these states is inferior to his national advantage, especially in New Hampshire, which borders the original states of both Sanders, who won the primary in 2016, and Warren.
Here are the RealClearPolitics polling averages in these early-voting statements:
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