Kawhi Leonard playing at MVP level as Clippers’ focus on passing changed the offensive equation

I remember talking to Portland Trail Blazers coach Terry Stotts a few years ago about the NBA’s growing fascination with volume overruns – the number of passes a team made per game. The dynastic Golden State Warriors did it cool, whipping the ball around 300 times for 30 assists a night, but Stotts came up with the idea that everything passes, and perhaps more importantly, passers-by, are created equal to be deceptive.

Is an extra pass for a worse shooter a good thing? Don’t some of the best shots come early? Didn’t those former Warriors teams have some of the smartest passers-by and best shooters in history? Of course, they can move the ball anywhere and it’s always going to end up in the hands of an all-time sniper. The Blazers don’t want Damian Lillard to pass a shot on an isolation so that three more passes can be made for a jumper challenged by Rodney Hood later in the clock.

Reasonable minds may disagree on how this type of thinking has maximized, or perhaps delayed, the Blazers over the years. Still, Stotts’ point remains clever: with overshoot, quality, if you’re looking for middle ground, is always better than quantity. Which is a roundabout way to get to the Los Angeles Clippers, who have been one of the league’s most determined passing teams in an offensive makeover enjoyed mostly in the niceties.

Entering Tuesday, the Clippers rank 18th in assists per game and 17th in assists. If you want to get technical, Ty Lue’s Clippers are doing 14 more passes per game this season than the team under Doc Rivers in 2019-20 (285-271), which is less than one more pass each night. (24.3 to 23.7).

It doesn’t seem like a big difference. In fact, the Clippers have a slightly lower pass ratio than last season. And yet, it’s a completely different passing team. It was the mark of the start of Lue’s tenure, sticking with Kawhi Leonard to turn the attention he draws in the paint into kick-out 3s for the Clippers’ multitude of shooters. Paul George operates with a similar mindset. They are both recording career highs on average in assists, and together they help on more than 48% of the Clippers made baskets, up from 46% last season.

While the Clippers’ total number of assists may not increase significantly, their situational passes are. They’ll still have plenty of low pass possessions given the brilliance of Leonard, George and Lou Williams as individual creators, but the instinct to move the ball at the right time has been sharpened. If you pass Kawhi or George and get caught in a spinning game, the Clippers are going to give a shooter a hot potato before you can blink.

And it’s not difficult to find a shooter. The Clippers are shooting an absurd 42.4% against 3 as a team, according to Cleaning the Glass, by far the best score in the league. New addition, Nicolas Batum (46% out of 3) and George (48%) have smoked all season. Serge Ibaka shoots 38% from depth, an even more lethal number than it looks given his ability to stretch the ground as a five-man pick-and-pop, something the Clippers lacked last season.

Meanwhile, Luke Kennard is shooting 42 percent from 3. Leonard is 38 percent. Patrick Beverley is at 42%. Marcus Morris 46 percent. Lou Williams 39 percent. When you have individual scorers like Leonard and George going to command doubles teams, you just can’t keep up with all of those shooters until the offense is ready to move the ball.

Entering Tuesday, the Clippers are the No.2 offense in the league with 119.5 points per 100 possessions, up from 114.2 last season, per CTG. They create 65 points per game on assists, up from 61 last season. And their formula is playoff gold: individual creators, shooting all over the place, and a stretch-five at Ibaka that allows them to clear the way on offense without compromising rim protection on defense.

Speaking of defense, the Clippers have climbed into the top five with a rating of 107.7, and they’re even better than that number suggests through the postseason viability goal. They have several elite Perimeter Defenders and a load of switchable parts. They bounce back. Their defensive shooting profile is solid. They prioritize protecting the paint and require you to shoot a lot of 3’s over the break with a big drop pattern. A drop system can become problematic in the playoffs depending on the game, but Lue has always shown himself to be a willful and capable fitter.

In a potential playoff clash with the Lakers, the Clippers lack a defenseman who can give Anthony Davis constant trouble, but who does? Lou Williams will be in the spotlight if he’s a part of the late-game playoff roster. Kennard, and possibly Reggie Jackson, gives Lue options in this regard, and Beverley’s eventual return will cover a lot of that as well. There have been slight rumors that the Clips may be looking to trade Williams, or possibly Ivica Zubac, which would be for defensive purposes. We will see if something happens on that front.

Either way, the Clippers are for real. They lost three of four, but George and Beverley came out and they were there with the Nets and Celtics in two of those losses. It goes without saying that the Clippers are a major title threat, but given how much fun everyone had laughing about their 3-1 playoff collapse against Denver in the bubble, it looks like we need a periodic reminder on this team.

Leonard should be in the top five of everyone’s MVP table, and George is having an incredible season. We hope that this bone (toe) edema that is pushing George out at the moment doesn’t persist for too long, and assuming it does, this team is locked in and loaded for a legitimate championship race.