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After Tuesday night’s 20-point loss to Alabama, Kentucky desperately needs a few wins to keep their NCAA tournament hopes alive. The Cats are on their way to their next two games, playing Auburn tomorrow and Georgia on Wednesday, before returning to Rupp Arena to host LSU on Saturday. What do computer models say for Kentucky’s next three games? I’m glad you asked the question.
First, a look at Kentucky’s place in all 11 ranking games:
Auburn Tigers
Saturday, Jan. 16, 2 p.m. ET, Auburn Arena (Auburn, AL), ESPN
- Recording: 7-6, 1-4 SEC
- NET: 80
- KenPom: 73
- Sagarin: 61
Don’t be fooled by the recording of Conference 1-4; Auburn are a dangerous team with Sharife Cooper now eligible. The Tigers beat Georgia in Athens on Wednesday and in Cooper’s opener last Saturday they racked up 90 points against Alabama. Cooper is averaging 27 points, 4.5 rebounds, 10.5 assists and 2.5 steals in two games and will present a huge challenge for the Kentucky backcourt tomorrow at Auburn Arena.
Sagarin Predictor: Auburn -1
KenPom: Kentucky 71, Auburn 70 (51% chance of winning)
Georgia Bulldogs
Wednesday, Jan.20, 7 p.m. ET, Stegemen Coliseum (Athens, GA), SEC Network
- Recording: 7-4, 0-4 SEC
- NET: 110
- KenPom: 95
- Sagarin: 89
The Bulldogs are winless in the conference game, losing to Mississippi State, LSU, Arkansas and Auburn. They took LSU in overtime to Baton Rouge, which is impressive, but the next game lost to Arkansas by 30. Auburn beat them by 18 Wednesday.
Sagarin predictor: Kentucky -2
KenPom: Kentucky 75, Georgia 71 (62% chance of winning)
LSU Tigers
Saturday, Jan.23, 6 p.m., Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY), ESPN
- Recording: 9-2, 4-1 SEC
- NET: 18
- KenPom: 22
- Sagarin: 14
The Tigers have lost just two games, including one in the SEC (83-79 @ Florida). Four players are averaging double digits, including Trendon Watford, who posted a double-double (23 points, 10 rebounds) in LSU’s 92-76 win over Arkansas on Wednesday. LSU is good, and a win over the Tigers would be huge for the Kentucky CV.
Sagarin predictor: LSU -4
KenPom: LSU 74, Kentucky 72 (45% chance of winning)
If you’re curious, KenPom currently has Kentucky finishing the season 11-14 with a 9-8 conference record. If that happens, it could be a very short March.
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