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China's shift to consumption-led growth will have mixed credit implications for African sovereigns, flattening trade volumes for oil and ferrous exporters, while benefiting other exporters and exporters. tourist destinations, according to Moody's Investors Service. 19659002] "China is now Africa's largest trading partner, with trade totaling $ 114 billion in 2016 that accounted for about 14% of the continent's total exports," Moody's head of credit for Europe, the Middle East and Africa He also warned that, as demand for commodities shrinks and international competition increases, oil and ferrous metals Africa's metal exporters will likely see their trading volumes stabilize. However, he noted that the growing Chinese investment in Africa is expected to reduce the continent's infrastructure deficit and help boost potential growth in some cases.
Economic growth of about 6.5 percent in China over the next two years is expected to support a modest resurgence in demand for some commodities; However, competition from other international commodity producers such as American shale oil producers and Australian and Brazilian mining companies may intensify and erode market shares. Although the recovery in oil prices has recently caused strong growth in value this year, the report warns that the price effect would likely decrease depending on Moody's medium-term estimates of oil prices. .
In contrast, Moody's expects Chinese demand for products such as copper, cobalt and aluminum to remain strong. These non-ferrous metals are widely used to produce cars, electronics and transportation, and should benefit from rising Chinese incomes. "
The Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia are expected to benefit the most from their copper exports to China, and increased food exports to China will benefit agricultural exporting countries such as Senegal and China. Ethiopia
The increase in China's revenues could also lead to a rise in tourism to Africa, according to the report.
Although Chinese tourists' share in Africa remains low at about 1.5% of the total number of Chinese tourists abroad, these figures have increased by about 30% per year since 2012, the highest rate in the world
. Mauritius, Morocco, Egypt, Kenya, Namibia, Cape Verde, Botswana, Tunisia and Tanzania are the most competitive tourist destinations in Africa and will probably benefit from the most competitive tourist destinations in Africa. an increase in the number of visitors from China's investment from China rose from 2% in 2010 to about 5% of foreign direct investment in Africa and if investment growth remains at half of current rates, the position China's investment will reach $ 100 billion in 2010. The report concluded that 70% of China's investment between 2000 and 2015 was infrastructure-focused, which could help fill the growing deficit in the region. infrastructure of the continent, particularly in the energy and transport sectors, and stimulate potential growth under certain circumstances.
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