KU Jayhawks basket vs. K-State: Time, TV, Analysis

Before each KU men's basketball match, The Star's Jesse Newell gives a glimpse of the Jayhawks' next opponent with a scouting report and a prediction.

Monday's game: Kansas vs. Kansas State, 8 pm, Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence

TV: ESPN

Opponent's record: 21-6

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 25

Point of propagation: KU by 3 1/2.

All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom's statistics also include only Division I competitions.

3 strong points

▪ Create havoc: Kansas State is in second place in the Big 12 in defensive turnover (behind only Texas Tech) and also the first in flying speed during this period.

▪ Transitional Defense: The Wildcats rank 11th nationally when it comes to limiting their opponents' fast-breaking opportunities.

▪ Defensive rebound: This strength has declined somewhat since the start of the conference, but the K-State still ranks 34th in the defensive rebound rate, doing much better in this area when forward Dean Wade plays.

3 weaknesses

▪ Shooting Selection: The K-State does not get a lot of shots on the sill and also tries the highest percentage of riders at 42nd.

▪ Three-point defense: Like KU, the defensive style of K-State is to protect the interior at the expense of allowing shots perimeter; because of this, 44% of the opponent's goals on the field went from three points.

▪ Free throws: The Wildcats reach the line less than an average team, while ranking 315th in percentage of free throws.

3 players to watch

Barry Brown (No. 5), 6 foot 3 inch goalie

More: Fourth in KenPom's Top 12 Players of the Year

More: The most aggressive offensive player on the team

More: Synergy's reports call him an excellent defender.

More: Large finisher at the edge for its size

Cons: I will try three, but the shooter is below average

Cons: Frequent shooting in the mid-range is detrimental to individual efficiency

Dean Wade (No. 32) 6 feet 10 inches

More: Offensive player super effective

More: At three-point range

More: 79% free throws

More: Big smuggler for his size

Cons: Not as aggressive as it should be offensive

Cons: Synergy ranks him among the weakest defenders of the K-State rotation

Xavier Sneed (No. 20), 6-foot-5 striker

More: Good three-point shooter

More: Rarely returns

More: Eats defensive glass

More: Considered an "excellent" defender by Synergy

Cons: Bad finish at the edge and in transition

Cons: Only 66% free throws

Prediction

Finding the quality of this Kansas State team can be tricky.

Predictive measures like KenPom do not like Wildcats, but there is a simple explanation for that: injuries. K-State obviously took a big step backwards earlier in the season when Wade was out, and it's not illogical to think that the team could be a point or two better than what these numbers are. just wait because he came back in training.

It seems that the line has evolved a little in this direction. Figures from KenPom and Bart Torvik indicate that KU should win by four, while the gap between Vegas, as noted above, is 3.5 over KU.

I still think that there are reasons to love more than that KU.

First of all, K-State's defense relies heavily on turnover, and that style will not work as well in Allen Fieldhouse as in Bramlage. The whistle will be tighter for K-State, and I do not see a scenario where KU will change it more than 30% of the time as in the first match.

The other key for the Jayhawks will be the three-pointer. The Wildcats will give up their appearance, and KU has been hot at Fieldhouse recently, scoring 43% of its three goals in the last five home games.

KU's defeat at Texas Tech has been ugly, and coach Bill Self must fear his team will always be tired of a brief turnaround after the game on Saturday night.

It still seems to me like a competition where the Jayhawks, fed by a crazy atmosphere, increase the intensity of the defense and fly away with more confidence.

I could see them go away if that's how it happens.

Kansas 73, Kansas State 65

Jesse's choice to cover the spread: Kansas

Hawk to Rock

Let's be bold. The self needs three-point threats against K-State, and choosing to play the shooter could make sense against the Wildcats' elite half-court defense. Charlie Moore He made 3 of 7 shots against Texas Tech, and he did not hesitate to shoot from outside this season, even during the first fights. Even though Moore has only achieved double digits in one game this season (18 against South Dakota), I would say that a good shooting night will make him reach at least 10 here.

Last game prediction: Texas Tech 71, Kansas 60 (Actual: Texas Tech 91-62)

Record 2018-19 vs. spread: 16-11

Record of the last five seasons against the gap: 93-73-3